What is happening to the Tory campaign in Oldham East?
Kashif Ali, the Conservative candidate
Who does David Cameron want to win the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election?
It might sound like a silly question but, , the Prime Minister would prefer a Liberal Democrat victory in order to shore up the coalition.
If that's true, nobody has told the candidate, Kashif Ali, though I suppose he would be the last to know.
He is a credible candidate and has been doing his best with little support.
However, a Number Ten spokeswoman has told me the suggestion David Cameron wants the Liberal Democrats to win is "absolutely untrue".
The real criticism of the Tory campaign is that it's been late, slow and quiet.
The party should have been campaigning from the moment Phil Woolas lost his seat. Instead they waited for the outcome of the judicial review, even though there was very little chance of it ever succeeding.
Even Labour, who certainly had to wait, had their candidate officially selected before the Tories.
The Conservative campaign manager is Andrew Stephenson, the newly elected MP for Pendle.
He agrees the party has been slow to start campaigning: "It's been a longstanding criticism of mine that we have always held off by-elections until it's 'acceptable' to start campaigning.
"It was the same in Cheadle and the same in Crewe and Nantwich. The Liberal Democrats beat us off the start from the word go."
But he told me the suggestion they are not fighting to win is "complete rubbish".
Nevertheless, it's left the opposition parties believing exactly that.
A national Liberal Democrat source told me: "I don't believe CCHQ is actively trying to help Elwyn, but it's clear they're not actively trying to help their own candidate either.
"This has always been our fight and the Tories' hearts just aren't in it."
I know many Tory activists in the North West hold Kashif Ali in high regard and are keen to support him.
The Conservatives tell me there will be a strong, concerted campaign from January.
The party is paying for direct mail to be sent to constituents.
And, of course, the Prime Minster will be visiting, surely something he would not do if he did not want to win.
Andrew Stephenson hopes the Tories will leapfrog the Lib Dems. While that's possible, it's only going to happen if the party rapidly gets into gear.
If you're interested in political issues in the North West, this could be the blog for you. I'm Arif Ansari the ´óÏó´«Ã½'s political editor in the region, covering controversy from Cheshire to South Cumbria.
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