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Archives for September 2008

"Most momentous financial day of our lives"

Andrew Neil | 10:16 UK time, Tuesday, 30 September 2008

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"Today was the most momentous financial day of our lives," a savvy Tory shadow minister told me last night, referring to the to back the £700 billion Bush bank bailout plan. "It is historic."

Here in Birmingham at the Tory conference he was one of the few to realise the significance of what was going on across the Atlantic: the Tory faithful continued to enjoyed themselves, apparently oblivious to the chaos on Capital Hill and the carnage on Wall Street, where the Dow collapsed in a record breaking fall of almost 778 points.

But the Tory leadership knew exactly what was happening: David Cameron and George Osborne were quickly withdrawn from the party circuit and closeted away to plan their response -- being seen quaffing champagne is not a good move when the world is on the brink of an economic meltdown.

The response of our political leaders, in government and opposition, to these "momentous" events is not yet clear. An editorial in this morning's Wall Street Journal excoriates the "feckless political class" on Capitol Hill that "cannot even make a sausage". It remains to be seen if our lot will do any better.

David Cameron is to make an "emergency" speech to the conference at 11am this morning on the financial crisis. No doubt he will repeat his . But will the Brown government bite -- Yvette Cooper remained shrilly partisan in her media appearances this morning and it's not clear if the Prime Minister's default position in a crisis is tribal or bipartisan -- and nobody here in Birmingham seems to be sure what the substance of a bipartisan approach should be.

Naturally, events elsewhere are overshadowing this conference. How could it be otherwise when stock markets are in turmoil, banks are being nationalised or shut down left, right and centre and the air is thick with portentous new possibilities, from the collapse of the Lloyds TSB takeover of ailing HBOS to fears that a massive British High Street bank might have to be rescued -- even nationalised -- by the weekend.

We'll be across all that and more live from Birmingham and London at Noon on ´óÏó´«Ã½2 today. We'll have , one of America's most respected economists in Brum and the editor of the Financial Times, the much-respected Lionel Barber, in our London studio. We'll have the latest from the US and we have an interview with the Shadow Chief Secretary of the Treasury, .

We have also asked to speak to a Government Treasury Minister. Among the many things we'll be talking to them about is whether the Brown government should mount a Bush-style bank bailout of its own, garnering bipartisan support from Tories and Lib Dems to do it. Perhaps if Westminster could do what Capitol Hill failed to do our political class might not be so "feckless" as America's after all.

As I write the London stock market is marking time, almost not quite sure what to do next after yesterday's precipitous falls. But bank stocks continue to weaken and we've not seen the end of the banking crisis by a long chalk. Late last night I learned that several mega-rich Brits had started withdrawing there millions from bank deposits to place them in safe-as-houses Treasury gilts, which earn almost no interest but run no risks. If that trend spreads then we will face a run on the banks -- and learn fast what an "economic Pearl Harbour" is in grim reality.

Away from global finance we'll be talking to Shadow Education secretary Michael Gove about his plans for a new wave of independent schools which will be free to the tax payer and compete with local state schools. Also today former Tory Party Chairman Norman Fowler on what the Tories still need to do to win - Lord Fowler has written a book on the subject full of special advice for the Tories. And has the banking meltdown created new opportunities for the Left?...as the foundations of capitalism are shaken to the roots Labour veteran Tony Benn will join us for a timely debate.

Join me live on ´óÏó´«Ã½-2 at midday for our action packed show.

A taxing inheritance...

Andrew Neil | 10:38 UK time, Monday, 29 September 2008

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cameron203x300blog.jpgThe Tories are in confident mood in Birmingham, though trying hard not to show it. Party managers have told them not to look or sound cocky or arrogant, and they're doing their best (though it's difficult for some).

The recent Brown bounce in the polls has produced some doubts at the back of their minds but they hope Birmingham will produce a bounce of their own. Almost every Tory I speak to is quietly certain their party will form the next government.

Party leaders are anxious to convince us they are ready for government. When I interviewed David Cameron yesterday for today's show, he was anxious to appear the epitome of Tory sound money, even promising to establish a new quango to keep him honest when it comes to spending and debt. The Tories now realise that if they do come to power they will inherit an ocean of red ink and that is concentrating minds: whoever wins the next election will have almost no room for tax cuts or spending increases. Indeed, the markets may demand they give priority to cutting the debt (which next year alone could increase by a record £100bn).

This morning I push Mr Cameron on his approach to tax and spend - there are still many unanswered questions - and, sticking with our economic theme, we'll have live and uninterrupted coverage of Shadow Chancellor's George Osborne's speech. Last year he pulled a huge rabbit out the hat in the shape of his abolition of inheritance tax for all but the biggest estates. Let's see what's in his hat in this new era of austerity.

Also this morning another conference star - Boris Johnson. The London mayor will be joining me live. Let me know what you'd like me to ask him.

And if all that isn't enough we'll also have Lady Thatcher's favourite advertising guru Tim Bell, who will be giving us his view on just how effective the Cameron brand has become.

So do join us live at 11.30 on ´óÏó´«Ã½-2 for the Daily Politics Conference special. Don't forget we want your views on all the stories that are making the news so email us at daily.politics@bbc.co.uk.

Banking on Brown?

Andrew Neil | 09:46 UK time, Friday, 26 September 2008

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I'm off today but leaving the programme in the very capable hands of . Here's her run down on what our hard-working production team have planned for today. I'll be back on Monday, enjoy today's programme and have a good weekend.

jocoburn203x300.jpg"We have two of Fleet Street's finest with us for the programme, The Daily Mirror's Kevin Maguire and Danny Finkelstein from the Times. Both were at the Labour party conference this week and are veterans of the political scene.

Ahead of this evening we will be looking at the latest news about the $700 billion financial rescue package in the States. The because of loudly voiced objections from a group of Republican members of Congress. A deal is still expected but how will the delay affect the markets? And without a deal the presidential debate could well be postponed. Who will benefit McCain or Obama?

So do you trust the Prime Minister most to steer the economy through the current economic crisis? We have the results of our exclusive poll.

And former Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott will be here to look back at the ... After calling the former Home Secretary Charles Clarke a 'bitterite' live on air for his criticisms of Gordon Brown, does he think the Prime Minister has done enough to silence his critics? Ruth Kelly's departure from the political stage has left a gap round the cabinet table, we'll ask Mr Prescott how dramatic should the reshuffle be?

The Tory conference kicks off next week in Birmingham. We will be discussing whether the Conservatives are ready for government with former Tory Cabinet minister, Peter Lilley and how they deal with the Prime Minister's accusation that they are just 'novices' in the political boardroom.

See you at midday on ´óÏó´«Ã½ Two.

Jo"

Jumping into the arms of her family

Andrew Neil | 10:04 UK time, Wednesday, 24 September 2008

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kelly203x300.jpgSo . You're not the first minister to say you're resigning to spend more time with your family - and not the first to be met with cynical smiles as you say it.

The word here in Manchester is that the Transport Minister got wind that she was going to be a victim in Gordon Brown's upcoming reshuffle - so rather than being pushed, she jumped, denying G Brown the pleasure of sacking her.

cabinet438.jpgThe PM has been dithering over his reshuffle for sometime and it now looks like being pretty modest: Chief Whip Geoff Hoon, , will replace as our European Commissioner when he steps down next June; to stay in Defence but will give Scotland to Paul Murphy, who will combine it with Northern Ireland and Wales; and Liam Byrne to the Cabinet.

These are changes that nobody outside Westminster will notice and will have no impact either way on Mr Brown's prospects for holding on to his job. That will be determined by more fundamental factors: how badly the inevitable fallout from the financial turmoil affects an already weakened economy and whether voters see the PM has the man to clean up the mess - the Manchester mantra - or the man who helped cause it.

The Brown speech one day on is - the conventional wisdom is that it has bought him time - but in the wider world beyond the conference centre its impact is harder to discern. Most voters are worried about their jobs, meeting their mortgage payments, the soaring costs of food and fuel and simply making ends meet in the new austerity. But it is now dawning on commentators here that Mr Brown had very little to say about any of that in his speech - so the impact on voters may be less than the impact on the press pack.

This is the last morning of the Labour conference, which is usually a non-event, but Ms Kelly's departure has given it a little frisson and added interest to what she has to say. We'll bring you the latest and cover other speeches this morning, from Mr Brown's mini-me, Ed Balls, and the health secretary , the man who says he doesn't want to be King.

Liz will be interrogating Tony Blair's former advisor Matthew Taylor and union leader Mark Serwotka over Labour's plans for public services and Giles will be putting his feet up in a Mancunian café to find out what members of the public have made of Labour's conference. So join us for our last live report from the Labour conference here in Manchester on the Daily Politics at Noon today on ´óÏó´«Ã½2.

"He just can't speak human"

Andrew Neil | 10:08 UK time, Tuesday, 23 September 2008

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, Gordon Brown is still putting the finishing words to what's been billed as "the speech of his life", though I sense it will turn out to be less than that.

Last night and into the wee small hours, it was still being drafted by a team of aides. A steady flow of folk went in and out of his conference suite to add their tuppenceworth.

Gordon Brown and David Miliband"There are so many people involved," one observer told me, "you could go up and add a couple of lines too. Nobody would notice." I declined the offer.

This sort of "gang-bang" approach to speech-writing often produces a turkey. We shall know in a few hours.

Brown has been known during speech-writing sessions in the end to tear up the drafts, access one of his template speeches in his hard drive and work on adapting it himself. I suspect he might have ended up doing that last night.

We're told that the PM will be both defiant and personal, which is a tricky double act to pull off, especially as (in the words of one minister) "he just can't speak human".

I doubt there will be anything new in the speech, bar the proposal to subsidise internet links for poor homes (which, at a measly £300m, is indicative of a government that has run out of money for grand gestures).

Many of the lines - "I'm the best qualified to deal with the financial turmoil" - we'll have .

The audience, of course, will give him a warm response. But I remain doubtful the speech will resolve anything - and people privately might quickly feel a little disappointed.

We'll have live and uninterrupted coverage of the speech this afternoon on on ´óÏó´«Ã½ Two. We begin the "pre-match build up" at noon for an hour, then return at 1.30pm for the run-up to the speech itself.

I'll be joined by a galaxy of politicians and journalists for analysis, comment and debate, including cabinet minsters Hazel Blears and Ed Miliband and former London mayor Ken Livingstone.

We'll have advice for Mr Brown on just how to make his speech from Hollywood star Brian Cox, who's perhaps best known for his parts in the Jason Bourne films. Maybe there are lessons from Jason Bourne's way of doing things for the PM?

We'll also have former Tory Leader Ian Duncan Smith on hand - he knows a thing or two about delivering the all-important party leader address - and we'll chat with Roy Hattersley, a former deputy leader of the party and veteran of Labour conferences.

And we hear from a Labour supporter - pop svengali Pete Waterman - and get his take on the PM's year. Blog readers can .

And as if all that isn't enough, we'll also have ´óÏó´«Ã½ political editor Nick Robinson on hand with the latest news and analysis.

If you have views on how Mr Brown should approach his speech and what you want to hear from him, please do leave a comment below.

And of course, you can catch up on all things conference at our superpage.

Ignore the hype

Andrew Neil | 09:58 UK time, Monday, 22 September 2008

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brown203conf1.jpgForget any putsch against Gordon Brown here in Manchester: the brothers and sisters attending the Labour party conference are not in a rebellious mood. Indeed, they seem rather reconciled to events: a poll suggests around 60% of Labour supporters don't think they can win the next election with Mr Brown as leader; but 52% don't want a leadership election.

So ignore all the hype about this being a "make-or-break speech for Gordon" or him having to give "the speech of his life". To be sure, if he bombs it will give the rebels a fillip; but it's likely to be neither a dud nor Martin Luther King - just more of the same old same old.

Labour is going through the motions of appearing to the outside world as a happy, united family but in private admits there will have to be a day of reckoning - but not here, indeed not before Parliament returns on 6th October and probably not until after the Glenrothes by-election (maybe on 6th November, when all eyes will be on the US election result). So Manchester resolves nothing and Labour's leadership crisis is set to rumble on through the autumn and into the winter.

The Brownites are arguing that last week's near financial meltdown means it's "now Gordon more than ever". But the real significance of the financial crisis will be its deleterious impact on the real economy in the weeks and months ahead and the effect that will have on Labour's already dismal election prospects.

darling203300conf1.jpgChancellor against a grim backdrop of collapsing house prices, rising home repossessions, unemployment heading towards 2m, a massive credit drought thanks to the financial turmoil and the prospect of government borrowing about to go through the roof, making a mockery of the Brown fiscal rules. No Chancellor has had such miserable mood music for a conference since in 1992.

Mr Darling will echo his master's new enthusiasm for greater global regulation of financial markets - but none of that will happen this side of a general election, if it ever happens at all. The unspoken words behind Mr Darling's Presbyterian demeanour are simple: things are going to get worse - perhaps a whole lot worse - before they get better.

We'll have live and uninterrupted coverage of the Darling speech plus reaction from Manchester and the City here on the Daily Politics, starting at the earlier time of 11.30am this morning on ´óÏó´«Ã½2.

We'll also be talking to two Labour cabinet ministers: Work and Pensions Secretary , whom some see as a future Labour leader, and Defence Secretary , whom nobody sees as a future Labour leader. We'll also hear from one of the leading Labour rebels, Frank Field, who led the rebellion over the 10p tax and is one of those MPs keen to send out nomination papers for a leadership contest.

Also: should there be a ? Unions are trying to force the issue today at the conference - many Labour MPs support the move but so far the Prime Minister has ruled it out. We want your views on that plus what Mr Darling should tell the City this morning and what Mr Brown should tell conference tomorrow.

Email us now at daily.politics@bbc.co.uk. And remember we're on from 11.30am til 1pm today on ´óÏó´«Ã½2 in a specially-extended edition of the Daily Politics to give full coverage of the Chancellor's speech.

"He'll be gone in three weeks"

Andrew Neil | 09:24 UK time, Thursday, 18 September 2008

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The Lib Dems have departed Bournemouth and Labour is preparing to head for Manchester, where it will gather in circumstances as bad as a Labour government has seen since the IMF baled out the Wilson/Callaghan one in 1976.

The Tories are at record highs in the polls (52% in the one out this morning) and the FTSE share index is at a recent record low - the speculation about Gordon Brown's chances of surviving is far from receding; it has now reached a new fever pitch.

One seasoned Labour sympathiser told me last night: "He'll be gone in three weeks". I've always taken the view that decapitation is simply not in Labour's DNA - but we're living through unprecedented events, and now I'm not so sure.

That's the dramatic backdrop to this morning's show and, now that the turmoil has reached Britain's high streets, with the Lloyds takeover of ailing HBOS, we'll be asking a simple but rather important question: is your money safe with any bank these days?

We'll have the latest from the markets and we'll be exploring whether the Blair/Brown government is saviour or culprit in this financial crisis, with former Paymaster General and Brown confidant Geoffrey Robinson and Conservative John Redwood.

Will the financial crisis take the heat off the Prime Minister? Some argue that after 10 years at the helm of the Treasury, there is nobody better placed to see us through.

Others claim that he has presided over a massive expansion of private and public debt, which is why Britain is uniquely vulnerable in the current meltdown.

With the latest Ipsos Mori poll suggesting the Tories are on 52 points for the first time since Thatcher's heyday, we'll get the reaction of former Education Secretary Estelle Morris.

Finally, the first in our series on Post-War Presidents explores the legacy of Bill Clinton.

You get your chance to later today.

Let me know what you think in the comments box below.

Leader's speech day

Andrew Neil | 10:38 UK time, Wednesday, 17 September 2008

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Today's Liberal Democrats are not natural tax-cutters so what Nick Clegg will tell them today in his first conference speech as leader is that what he's really offering is the biggest-ever in British history, with massive tax rises on the rich to finance tax cuts for lower and middle income.

The party activists will like that as they will his claim that Labour is "finished, over", though I seem to remember the Tories were supposed to be finished in 1997 and Labour in 1983.

Mr Clegg has had his way on rebranding the party, designed to repel a Tory onslaught in the South and win Labour seats in the North. It's a tough road: the tax plan will be unpicked by experts in the weeks ahead when the financial turmoil dies down and, despite its current terrible woes, Labour is unlikely to be finished.

Nick Clegg's biggest problem is news elsewhere, pushing him far down the news agenda.

As we prepare to go on air we learn from the City that British financial authorities have pushed , another huge high street bank and Britain's biggest mortgage lender. HBOS shares have been in freefall and the British government knows it cannot be allowed to go bust. Hence yet another state-sponsored rescue operation involving two iconic high street names -- and that's what the headlines will be about.

Still, Mr Clegg's first major outing makes Bournemouth interesting and we'll have live comment on the latest financial crisis from Vince Cable, the Lib Dem's experienced Treasury spokesman.

We'll have live and uninterrupted coverage of the Clegg Speech from 11am today. We'll visit a key maginal to guage how the new leader is doing. Also an exclusive Simon Hoggart sketch from conference...analysis from our Political Editor Nick Robinson and as if all that isn't enough - takes 'Just a Minute'.. or two to review the Lib Dem year. . Join us live on ´óÏó´«Ã½2 at 11 for the Daily Politics Conference Special.

A question of credibility

Andrew Neil | 10:18 UK time, Tuesday, 16 September 2008

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With all eyes on Wall Street, the City and Downing Street, the Liberal Democrats in Bournemouth are feeling a little neglected - and having trouble getting their message through.

They now want to be seen as tax cutters but polls, , suggest it will take time to shake off their tax-and-spend image.

A senior Lib Dem told me last night that the strategy going into the next election was to hold on to as many seats as they can in the South - where they will face a Tory onslaught - but to hope to pick up Labour seats further north.

Hence the new emphasis on tax cutting. They hope that will improve their appeal in Tory areas, while in Labour areas, they will stress that the tax cuts will be concentrated on the lower end of the income scale.

But there is still the issue of credibility. Some voters will probably see it all as just a cynical ploy.

Others will doubt the tax-cutting credentials - after all, the promised 4p cut in the basic rate of income tax will be offset (at least partially) by the introduction of a local income tax; and the much-touted £20bn cut in public spending will not be used primarily to cut taxes but redirected to "Lib Dem public spending priorities".

So the new strategy is not quite as clear cut as it seems and we'll be examining it more closely on the show today with not one but two former leaders of the Liberal Democrats.

I'll be talking to Charles Kennedy in Bournemouth about the direction Nick Clegg is taking the party, while Menzies Campbell will be in the studio in London commenting on Day Four of the party's autumn conference.

There's a lot going on today: we have Chris Huhne's plans to "Cut Crime by Catching Criminals"; a speech by the party's president Simon Hughes and a debate on Europe, an issue on which this once most Europhile of parties is now downplaying.

Chris Huhne even told us yesterday that the commitment to joining the Euro would be dropped from the next manifesto.

Plus we'll have all the latest on the as the Labour Party's National Executive Committee meets ahead of its conference - rebels are hoping to force party officials into sending out nomination forms for the position of party leader.

All that on ´óÏó´«Ã½2 from Noon. Hope to see you then!

Banks and Labour on the ropes - here come the Lib Dems...

Andrew Neil | 09:13 UK time, Monday, 15 September 2008

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With not one but , triggering even more financial turmoil (including a collapse in share prices), and Gordon Brown increasingly surrounded by rebels baying for his blood, it would be hard to claim that the Liberal Democrats' autumn conference here in Bournemouth was at the top of anybody's news schedule.

But it has its interest nevertheless: after years espousing the virtues of a more collectivist tax-and-spend approach than even Labour was prepared to contemplate, the Lib Dems have now rediscovered the virtues of the market and are now calling for lower taxes and smaller government. Whether this is a genuine conversion or provoked by fear of being wiped out by the Tories in the South of England we will test when we kick off our party with a big interview with the Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg. We'll also find time to ask him why his party now sounds more Eurosceptic (which suggests the Tories really do have them rattled).

Not everybody here in Bournemouth is happy with the change in direction, which will be debated and voted on today. But Mr Clegg can count on the support of his popular economics spokesman, Vince Cable; we'll carry his keynote speech live. We'll also hear from a former party bigwig who argues Nick Clegg needs to take the party to the right of the Conservatives to avoid defeat (you can watch what he - Mark Littlewood - has to say right now, ). Since that's what he seems to be doing, the bigwig will no doubt be a happy chappie. And we've got the .

We'll also have all the latest on the eager to give Gordon Brown the chop and any political fallout from the financial ructions, which won't make the PM's life any easier. That's all in today's Daily Politics Conference Special, live from Bournemouth and London, on ´óÏó´«Ã½2 from Noon.

Conference season calls

Andrew Neil | 09:50 UK time, Monday, 8 September 2008

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dp_logo_ICON_BB203.jpgWelcome to my Daily Politics blog. We've been working away over the summer to bring you all manner of delights for the new parliamentary session - including our new , new, improved website and this blog. We return to ´óÏó´«Ã½ Two on Monday 15th September for the start of the conference season - joy of joys. And there's double joy to be had on ´óÏó´«Ã½ Two for aside from the best of the conference coverage each lunchtime on Daily Politics, I'll be indulging in late-night musings and discussion on Today at Conference at 11:20pm after .

We'll start in Bournemouth where I'll be attending the (we're there from Monday 15th to Wednesday 17th September). It's Nick Clegg's first conference as leader and the Party's first real chance to weigh up his leadership. Has he been outflanked by Cameron? With the Party flat-lining in the polls there are rumblings he needs to reassert traditional liberal values. It should be an interesting week.

But not as interesting as the in Manchester should be (Monday 22nd to Wednesday 24th September). Just what Gordon Brown needs amid economic misery, calls for his head and polling George W Bush would wince at - three days in Manchester with the whole Labour Party. I'll be getting the inside view - and I don't expect it to be pretty.

Finally, to the Midlands and what is likely to be a more cheery event - the in Birmingham (Monday 29th September to Wednesday 1st October). A huge lead in the polls and a government lurching from one blunder to the next, David Cameron has to be the toast of the Tories doesn't he? We'll be speaking to a few who think he's gone too far in parking his tanks on other people's lawns.

So join me on the Daily Politics in the coming weeks - and join in below.

Andrew

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