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The Ministry of Defence is insisting today that no decision has been made but on the Moray Firth everyone is convinced that RAF Marham in Norfolk air base has been reprieved and it's now a battle of survival between RAFs Lossiemouth and Leuchars in Scotland.

Yesterday the Armed Forces Minster Nick Harvey visited the Lossiemouth area and met local councillors and business leaders. What he said to them depends on who you want to believe.

"He told us categorically that RAF Marham was safe, leaving it a battle between Lossiemouth and RAF Leuchars," says Callum McPherson, of Highlands and Islands Enterprise.

Another person at the meeting, local councillor John Divers, says: "I asked him where Marham had gone, and he came back stating there that though no decision had been made, it would not be financially viable to move personnel and equipment from Marham."

When questioned by local reporters Mr Harvey said: "I think they are overstating what I said. I simply made the point that the costs of relocating the RAF out of Marham would be very high and first and foremost the purpose of this whole exercise is to try and achieve financial savings."

And later on a terse statement from the Ministry of Defence declared: "The minister did not say that RAF Marham was 'safe'. He was explaining some, but not all, of the considerations taken into account, as part of UK-wide RAF basing reviews. No decisions have yet been made."

But if Marham has been ruled out it would tie in with the mood music coming out of Westminster.

This week the government said no decision would be made until the early summer - after the Scottish elections. That and other whispers coming out of the MOD has left Norfolk MPs feeling more positive, while Scottish MPs are becoming resigned to this now being a battle between two Scottish airbases.

The Save RAF Marham campaign says this is the most positive news yet but it will not give up the fight.

"Whilst the minister has acknowledged the tactical military advantages of Marham and the significant costs of relocating that I and other campaigners have been articulating, we cannot and should not assume anything until a decision has been made," says George Freeman, the MP for Mid Norfolk.

There may well be other twists and turns in this story but at the moment the smart money seems to be on the Tornadoes staying at Marham.

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