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Election 07

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Scottish politics gets serious

  • Brian Taylor
  • 29 Apr 07, 11:33 PM

So. Who had the best of the Leaders鈥 Debate on 大象传媒 Scotland? Well, Annabel Goldie - as ever - delivered the best one liners.

Asked whether political correctness had ruined the justice system, she placed the blame on 鈥減olitical ineptness鈥 instead. By the governing Executive.

OK, so it鈥檚 not exactly Bob Hope standard. Maybe it sounded better when delivered in that laconic Goldie drawl.

And maybe, too, you can comfortably strive for wit when you鈥檝e already declared that you won鈥檛 enter coalition.

Perhaps Annabel Goldie finds herself in a very unusual position - a relaxed Tory, free from fretting over much. Or perhaps she鈥檚 just having a good campaign.

Other than her, Alex Salmond looked the most relaxed - although Jack McConnell was notably more combative than he鈥檚 appeared in other comparable contests.

For example, he was notably robust in tackling the SNP over their alternative for funding school building.

Nicol Stephen didn鈥檛 stumble - but he didn鈥檛 hit home all that vigorously either. Perhaps that鈥檚 the role - and fate - of a junior coalition partner.

He was, however, staunch on the issue of a referendum. No coalition deal that includes an initiative which could break the Union.

So what did we learn? We learned from Jack McConnell that the issue of Iraq may be playing on the doorsteps - with a negative impact for Labour. Did anyone think anything else?

Still, it was intriguing to hear Mr McConnell concede as much, directly. Plainly, the moment for subtle obscurantism has long gone.

Iraq鈥檚 a toughie for Labour. Face that - but remind voters that they鈥檙e deciding the future of Scotland, not Iraq.

In essence, Labour鈥檚 pitch for a week or more has been this. You may not like all that鈥檚 come out of the UK government. You may want to give Tony Blair a kicking. But he鈥檚 going soon anyway. You can鈥檛 kick him out any faster.

You won鈥檛 influence events in Iraq. But, if you protest against UK Labour, you may well end up with an SNP domestic government in Scotland and be set on the path to ending the Union.

In essence, the SNP response is this. We definitely don鈥檛 like much that has come out of the UK government. We want to supply the boots for you to give T. Blair a much-deserved kicking. We think there should be an SNP domestic government. But we鈥檒l give you another chance in a referendum to have your say on independence.

As ever when Scottish politics gets truly serious, matters revert to the core fault line - the Union or independence.

May the Fourth ...

  • Betsan Powys
  • 29 Apr 07, 08:37 PM

The time has arrived.

People walk past the bus in Haverfordwest, saunter into the office, hang about outside the nursery and ask: well is Labour going to hold .... or will the Tories take ...?

You can bet then that any small hint of news from the many '...' of this Assembly Election are very welcome.

One honest John explained today that the envelope in which postal votes are returned are very thin, so thin that if you stare at them, you can see in which the box the cross has been put, even if they're not meant for your eyes.

So could it be that the postal votes so far returned to Cardiff North are suggesting a swing to the Tories which is edging into double figures? Early days ... And might thin paper explain why Cardiff's Lib Dems seem far more confident that the fourth list seat in South Wales Central will be theirs, not Plaid's?

Two press releases and a hint arrive today suggesting where we may be heading in this last week. Labour are putting out the simple message tomorrow that if you want the things (they hope) you regard as good - free prescriptions, free bus passes - then you have to vote Labour, despite the things (they're afraid) you regard as bad.

Rhodri Morgan has got to get the vote out and he's said so to anyone who'll listen since well before Christmas. If Labour don't get their vote out - even in seats that are rock solid - he knows the compensation from the list won't save their skins.

Meanwhile Plaid Cymru are coming out fighting on their spending promises, sensing that this is where they're vulnerable? Or sensing that this is where they'll come under attack from now until Thursday?

Eurfyl ap Gwilym, the man behind Plaid's maths, is coming to Cardiff. He's been promised to us 'on the other end of a phone' and has delivered answers but tomorrow, we can see the look on his face when he's asked whether Plaid can really afford those laptops ... and those cheques for first time buyers ... and a three-year spending plan every other party has attacked as irresponsible and hopelessly optimistic.

Expect the same line of attack from the Tories this week. Last week's polls tell us they've got the motive to attack Plaid on their maths. I suspect they think they may have found the means as well.

Best line of a long weekend: "May the Fourth be with you!"

Quite.

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