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A long night ahead after all?

Mark D'Arcy | 14:43 UK time, Wednesday, 16 February 2011

Kerpow! The by "insisting" (as they say in parliamentary jargon) on their amendment for a 40% threshold before a referendum on changing the voting system is automatically valid - if a smaller proportion of the electorate turns out and the referendum backs a change in the voting system, the matter is referred to Parliament for decision. Where whipping a "yes" decision on a small turnout through would be a nightmare for the government...

The original motion was only passed by a single vote; the Lords "insisted" by 277 votes to 215. So it looks as if the crucial crossbench vote is turning out against the government. And so are some Tory veterans like Lords , and

Peers are cross because they don't believe their amendment was fairly described by the Constitutional Reform Minister Mark Harper - they say it is not a wrecking amendment because the referendum does not fail on the 40% threshold: it merely leads to the decision being referred to Parliament. And they also indulged in a fair bit of Lib Dem bashing.

It may also be that the normally adroit Mr Harper has given a double hostage to fortune first by mentioning the strong majority in the Lords for keeping the Isle of Wight as a single seat as a reason for the government's concessions on that point (see posts below); words which are now being taken as an invitation for peers to stage an emphatic show of strength on every disagreement with the Commons.

Second, some peers believe the Wight concession abandons the principle of uniform-sized constituencies, strengthening the arguments for allowing more flexibility in constituency size.

And Mr Harper's just had a very narrow squeak on that very point. The crossbench peer, Lord Pannick, moved that peers should again insist on his amendment providing an exceptional 7.5% variation in the size of constituencies - and lost by a single vote.

So the Commons will now have to disagree with the Lords again, and see what happens. That clock is ticking, and it could be a long parliamentary night after all.

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