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Is there a 'Bradley Effect'? Or perhaps the reverse?

Michael Crick | 16:18 UK time, Monday, 20 October 2008

Tom BradleyWith most now giving Barack Obama a substantial lead in the presidential race, the big unknown is the possible - a reference to what seemed to happen back in 1982 when the black mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, ran for the Governorship of California.

Before that election most polls gave Bradley a substantial lead, but then he lost. In short, the effect was identified as a distortion in opinion polls caused by voters who didn't want to vote for a black candidate, but didn't want to admit that to pollsters.

A similar effect was cited by some analysts - rightly or wrongly - when Hillary Clinton confounded expectations, and the polls, and beat Obama back in the New Hampshire Democrat primary earlier this year.

But my former Newsnight colleague Peter Kellner, now president of the polling company Yougov, has written suggesting that the Bradley Effect may be a bit of a myth these days. Indeed, he argues that current US polls may in fact UNDERSTATE Obama's lead, simply because, on the basis of past voting behavior, they may underestimate how many black voters will turn out. But with Barack Obama in the running this time, the argument goes, black people may be a lot more inclined to cast their ballots than ever before.

Intriguing stuff.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Will Colin Powell be the only person to cross over from the Republicans due to the underhanded tactics they have used?

    Perhaps not.

    As far as I am concerned they can't get him in to office fast enough

  • Comment number 2.

    I think America is keen to make history with having there first black president...to be quite frank he seems to be the most favourable candidate at this point in time.
    How will the press deal with his recluse like tactic?
    and How much do the Americans believe what they see and hear on the news?

  • Comment number 3.

    Sorry unaware that his grandmother is ill, but the principles of the matter still exist.

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