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Lib Dems to win election? Let's examine the facts

Michael Crick | 15:25 UK time, Wednesday, 23 September 2009

Nick Clegg today told the Lib Dem conference why he wants to be Prime Minister. And he presented his front-bench team, one by one, as ready to take over as Cabinet ministers at the top of a Lib Dem government.

The Lib Dems pride themselves on being a party of honesty, and Nick Clegg's talk today suggesting he's planning to become PM next spring is utterly bogus.

Let's examine the facts.

To form, at best, a minority government the Lib Dems would need at least 220 seats (in the unlikely event Labour and the Tories each got about 210).

That compares with the 63 they have now. In others words, to have a genuine chance of forming a Lib Dem government the party should be targetting between 150 and 200 seats.

That just ain't happening.

In reality, the Lib Dems have so little money and resources that the number of their target seats is probably no more than 50, and in reality may only be about 30. Much of their election effort next spring will be devoted to holding onto what they've got, against a serious challenge from the Conservatives, rather than breaking substantial new ground.

That partly explains the story I wrote yesterday about lots of candidates resigning. Many of them just feel they aren't getting enough support from the high command. (And I was told last night, by the way, by a semi-informed source, that the number of resignations is 23).

The Lib Dems won't say, of course, how many target seats they have, let alone where they are.

The truth will become clearer once we start seeing what seats Nick Clegg visits during the election campaign.

But one thing every Liberal Democrat in Bournemouth knew this week, somewhat to their dismay, is that, as David Steel once suggested, they aren't going back to their constituencies to prepare for government.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    To be honest Michael, much of what Nick Clegg says is bogus. From his denial that there is an impending energy gap, to his distortions about the Conservatives' plan to replace the Human Rights Act with a Bill of Rights, the man is a spin merchant who has no credibility.

    Perhaps given Clegg's deluded interpretation of political reality the appropriate Lib Dem general election campaign song should be Bucks Fizz's 'Land of Make Believe'.

  • Comment number 2.


    I always try to respect the Lib Dems as they have a tough job as the third party but their proclamations this week at conference on their chances of getting into government next year have been laughable.

    The speeches have been weak and almost cringe-worthy at times too.

    Also my Lib Dem friends' tweets on Twitter about their conference and leader's speech have been europhic and incredibly optomistic. I don't like to argue with them though, it only upsets them. Saying they have no chance of winning the election in 2009 is like telling a child that Father Christmas doesn't exist.

    Bless.

  • Comment number 3.

    I am a lifelong Lib Dem supporter (partly because I would like to see electoral reform, but I also tend to find that I like their policies). However, I agree that if you want to portray yourself as realistic and honest, then you should talk about realistic electoral targets. It is counterproductive to tell people to vote Lib Dem in order to help them to win outright, since we all know that, as you say, that ain't happening this time round. So instead Nick Clegg should be explaining why it would be good for the country to have more Lib Dem MPs. (The rough answer to this would be that they have good policies and that the more MPs they have the more influence they will have on whichever party, probably the Conservatives, does form a government.)

    I also think that there is a natural constituency of people who are sick of Gordon Brown but would never dream of voting Conservative. The Lib Dems should work out who they are and reach out to them.

  • Comment number 4.

    Dear Mr Crick

    I thought it might help if I re-wrote your article on Nick Clegg

    Nick Clegg today told the Lib Dem conference why he wants to be Prime Minister. And he presented his front-bench team, one by one, as ready to take over as Cabinet ministers at the top of a Lib Dem government.

    sounds a reasonable thing for a party leader to say?

    The Lib Dems pride themselves on being a party of honesty, and Nick Clegg's talk today suggesting he's planning to become PM next spring


    sounds a reasonable thing for a party leader to say?

    is utterly bogus.

    according to who?


    Let's examine the facts.

    Yes, that would be helpful

    To form, at best, a minority government the Lib Dems would need at least 220 seats (in the unlikely event Labour and the Tories each got about 210).

    sounds about right

    That compares with the 63 they have now.

    sounds about right

    In others words, to have a genuine chance of forming a Lib Dem government the party should be targetting between 150 and 200 seats.

    sounds about right

    That just ain't happening.

    how do you know?

    In reality, the Lib Dems have so little money and resources that the number of their target seats is probably no more than 50,

    subjective comment

    and in reality may only be about 30.

    a guess

    (Much) of their election effort next spring will be devoted to holding onto what they've got, against a serious challenge from the Conservatives,

    makes sense to work hard to keep the current seats, 'much' is a vague term

    (rather) than breaking substantial new ground.

    perhaps 'as well' would be more accurate?

    That (partly) explains the story I wrote yesterday

    what does 'partly' mean, and I agree you wrote a story yesterday

    about (lots) of candidates resigning.

    'lots' is a vague term

    (Many) of them just feel they aren't getting enough support from the high command.

    'Many' is another vague term

    (And I was told last night,

    makes sense,

    by the way, by a (semi-informed) source, that the number of resignations is 23).

    How can a source be semi-informed?

    The Lib Dems won't say, of course, how many target seats they have,

    understandly so?

    let alone where they are.

    would be surprising if they did

    The truth will become clearer once we start seeing what seats Nick Clegg visits during the election campaign.

    How many seats do you think he will visit during the election campaign?

    But one thing (every) Liberal Democrat in Bournemouth knew this week, somewhat to their dismay,

    'every' is a broad term, can you support the use of this term?

    is that, as David Steel once suggested, they aren't going back to their constituencies to prepare for government.

    How do you know?

  • Comment number 5.

    Hi,

    not sure why the above has being referred?

  • Comment number 6.

    "Go back to your constituencies and prepare to hope to have part of the balance of power next year, just possibly, if we manage to hold half our seats . . ."

    Well Chameleon has been courting the N Ireland proddies more assiduously than he has young Mstr Clegg I gather . . .

  • Comment number 7.

    I will not dodge the question...and then dodges them for an hour...you must admit...it takes talent

  • Comment number 8.

    Lib Dems to win the election? Er, no. Sorry.

  • Comment number 9.

    In the event of a hung parliament - Is it unknown for the minority party in a coalition to nominate the leader?

  • Comment number 10.

    Part of the media conspiracy to undermine Labour still further is the puffing of the Lib-Dems.

    The bandwagon effect the Tories have relied on so heavily, whereby they try and make out that their election win is a foregone conclusion is enhanced by making out that the Lib Dems have a chance of being second.
    Then, they hope, people will only bother voting Cons.

    But, as Peter Mandelson pointed out, the election will not be today, or tomorrow.

    He might have added that "They only count the winners at the finish" as failing motorcycle marques which had shown undue optimism before the race used to be told at the Manx TT.

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