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Is that it then?

Michael Crick | 18:41 UK time, Thursday, 7 January 2010

There's a general consensus in politics today that that's it, that Gordon Brown is now secure in his post until the General Election.

I agree that's almost certainly true, but would say there's still a small chance - perhaps 5-10% - that Mr Brown might still go before the election.

There are a few Labour people - both pro and anti-Brown - who think it's still a possibility, though pretty small.

Their reasoning goes like this.

Yesterday illustrated very publicly just how little confidence Gordon Brown enjoys within his own Cabinet.

That was shown by how slowly Cabinet members came out to back him, and how lukewarm, or even tepid, the statements were when they finally did emerge.

Over the next few days it may sink in amongst Labour big-wigs just how dangerous it is for the party ahead of an election for this position to have become so publicly exposed - a prime minister who lacks the support even of his own Cabinet.

It's a far worse position than John Major was ever in.

It is just possible that a combination of Labour big beasts might get together and agree they collectively have to go and tell Mr Brown that the game is up.

That would mean three or four of the following people: Peter Mandelson, Jack Straw, Harriet Harman, Alistair Darling, Alan Johnson and David Miliband. Ed Balls would be a pretty unlikely extra bonus.

The first we'd get to hear of such an operation would be when Mr Brown announced he was resigning.

The big beasts might even agree amongst themselves who should take over - perhaps a dual arrangement with Mr Straw as acting PM, and Ms Harman as acting party leader.

There might even be time for a proper leadership election. Some reckon it could be done in 21-23 days, or up to eight weeks if union members were consulted, which would produce a new leader by mid-March.

Such a process might not tear the Labour Party apart; the debate could reinvigorate Labour, in the much same way the leadership election of 2005 did for the Conservative.

OK, it almost certainly won't happen. But it's a remote possibility.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Note to Labour Members - sort out your constitution out so your party can get rid of a "leader" who has been over promoted beyond their talents.

  • Comment number 2.

    REMEMBER WE ARE DEALING WITH 'IMMATURITY-BROWN'.

    Immaturity Brown spat venom at Capability Blair and finally found Tony's Achilles Heel. Brown drove Blair out - only to find he can't 'do a Tony' and money, his specialist subject, was no longer understandable. Meanwhile Tony was becoming a world god. Poor Jimmie Brown would be chewing his fingernails - if he could find any - in the knowledge that Tony has the last laugh. That will be enough to stop Brown from going quietly. He has to find some way to feel he got the better of Blair. He might even be pinning his hopes on Chilcot. Anything but having to live out his life with Blair's rictus dentition, floating Cheshire Cat style, before his eyes, waking and sleeping.

  • Comment number 3.

    Brown will never go of his own accord. What Messiah would ?

    It will need men in white coats, with a jacket for Brown with extra-long sleeves.

    I'm still not convinced that some dire emergency won't be found for cancelling the election - swine flu's long-awaited mass outbreak, anyone ?

    Alan Douglas

  • Comment number 4.

    THAT'S THE WAY TO DO IT (#3)

    Or a Terror alert? "That Tony Blair had tanks at Heathrow - I'll have tanks everywhere!" (J Brown) Will anyone dare tell him he cancelled the tank order?

  • Comment number 5.

    There is no way he'll quit.

    Reason was never part of his game.

    Alan Douglas has it right.

  • Comment number 6.

    all unravelling now...Hoon said Brown wouldn't sign the cheques for equipment for hardware in Afghanistan...so Brown did have doubts

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