A slow decay
"These things happen". Thus Number 10 has . I suspect that at Prime Minister's Questions Tony Blair wll try to laugh off the fact that his absence made the difference between defeat and victory.
George Galloway turned out to be a more reliable supporter of a Labour manifesto pledge than the PM himself. Despite their obvious distractions, Mark Oaten and Charles Kennedy turned out to be more consistent voters.
Now, it's true the world will go on. It's true too that last night's defeat will act as a shot across the bows before the votes that really matter on schools reform. But - and it's a big but - governments with a majority this size should not lose votes, not least on manifesto pledges. It suggests not so much a loss of authority as a lack of grip by Team Blair.
It also demonstrates the slow decay of instinctive discipline and loyalty in the Parliamentary Labour Party. Those things do happen to governments, but usually only just before their leaders stand aside or are pushed.
I'm 
Comments
Is it possible that "these things happen" on purpose? Could a deal have been made with some rebel Labour MPs that Tony would look the other way and let the Lords amendments pass on this bill (while not having to admit to a U-turn)? In return these rebels will have been asked to vote for school reform come the education bill vote. Just wondering if this "conspiracy theory" was even remotely possible.
You make a fair point Nick in relation to "governments with a majority this size should not lose votes". However, I doubt if Blair will be losing too much sleep on this particular matter. It's surely fair to say that most commentators agree (even those who support the Bill) that this particular piece of legislation was poorly written and destined to be irritatingly tested by all and sundry, from comedians and satirists to playwrights and human rights campaigners. Therefore, to lose this might not be such a bad thing for government.
Indeed, the cynic or conspiracy theorist might ague that Blair got the calculations right and deliberately missed the vote. Now there's a thought!
'a shot across the bows before the votes that really matter' - I heard you and the presenter (forget his name, sorry) talking about this vote as though it was something trivial, rather than a fundemental - and very cynical - attack on freedom of speech, concentrating on the rather trivial parlimentary tactics of the thing, rather than what really matters about it.
As each day passes, Tony Blair becomes more and more of a liability to Labour, and this is giving Dave Cameron more of a chance to shine.
I couldn't believe that I was actually warming to DC when Nick was interviewing him on PM on Monday.
Meawhile, TB, just won't give up the ghost. I used to find it frustrating, during the whole Iraq fiasco. But now, I'm actually finding it entertaining. It's playing out like a train crash, in slow motion...With TB at the wheel, and DC being the obstacle that they are hurtling towards.
The same thing crossed my mind as well Alan, but I suspect that a combination of his (Blair's)arrogance and his whips miscalculations and not a deal are what caused this loss.
I would say that the majority of the rebel Labour MP's feel far too strongly about the proposed reforms to Health and Education to allow then to pass unchallenged.
Personally I'm hoping that this is another line in the epitaph of T.Blair.
The theory could be possible but I think the labour backbenchers would need more than this to stop them voting against the education reforms.
They seem to hate them an awful lot (mind you so do I).
Conspiracy theories are generally always possible, but if he can't get them to agree with him even under three-line whip in other bills, I'm guessing they wouldn't stick with him so that the bill /doesn't/ go through. Besides -- then they wouldn't get to disagree with him on the education bill!
Surely the surprise is not that Tony Blair missed the second vote (which was lost by one vote remember) but that he actually bothered to turn up and vote the first time round: quite a surprise given his previous distant relations with Parliament.
How wonderfully embarassing for Tony! His personal vote losing it was the perfect irony.
Another beautiful irony is the coincidence with the re-emergence of the the Muhammad cartoon thing. I wonder if any UK newspapers will have the guts to print it tomorrow, both to show solidarity with the Danes and to stick up two fingers at the government?
Does anyone feel as embarrassed as i do that someone as incompetent and useless as TB is our leader?I am praying daily for Gordon Brown to take over so that the government can actually do something useful for a change!
PS I think Blair will be kicked out by the summer because his own party feels as embarassed by him as I do!
I don't believe the conspiracy theory anymore I'm quite convinced it was a clever plot by the Lib Dems and Conservatives quietly ganging up without Labour whips cathching on. Maybe this will make MP's turn up more to debate and vote on policy? If this episode gets more MP's off the streets and into the commons that can only be a good thing.
This Bill relates to England and Wales not Scotland. Scottish MPs had no right to vote, nor did Ian Paisley.