Danger of deception
David Cameron has had a couple of early bits of good news, including a relatively easy gain () which was on their list of targets.
It's worth remembering that before the Labour crisis began, this election was being seen as a test for David Cameron. His national poll ratings were slipping, and inside his party, people were saying "people might like you, but it's not making them vote Conservative".
If - and it's a big if - the pattern of results continues along these lines, he will be able to see off those who were preparing to tell him that the headlines weren't enough.
There are signs - ´óÏó´«Ã½ analysts tell me - that the Tory advance is very much concentrated in what would be considered traditional Tory territory. The party's vote is up most strongly in the south of England in relatively middle-class wards and in wards with low proportions of people in poor health. Ironically Cameron's success may be in rejuvenating the core Tory vote!
There is danger in all this for the Tories. If Labour's crisis is magnifying the Tory vote - then it could all just be a deception. And remember, previous Tory leaders - William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith, even Michael Howard - have allowed themselves to be deceived by nights like this.
I'm 
Comments
Nick,
you should also point out that the Conservatives lost Gosport (Peters Viggers seat, isn't it?) to a hung council, with the LibDems almost doubling their seats.
Its you I feel sorry for, Nick! Good luck with the all-nighter!
Kyle
Just a thought
All the posters in windows etc. I have seen recently, are beseeching people to vote "labour".
Whatever happened to "New Labour"
Where has the "New" gone, or is it that the printers are waiting for the ink to dry on the "New Old Labour" stickers, or the alternative "Old New Labour" slogan.
I always find local elections deceptive. For example in the strong Conservative constituency of South West Hertfordshire, famed for middle class, high flying London commuters, they vote with a majority for the Conservative MP in general elections but in local elections (Three Rivers Council) they go to the other end of he scale and vote a majority for the Lib Dems. Local issues here include potholes and parking permits. I'd be interested to see if the seemingly ironic regeneration of Tory strongholds comes into play in this particular council.
A revival of Tory core support actually makes a lot of sense. There was always a lot more differential turnout and fewer floating votings than we used to think.
And the impression I get from Conservatives is that they are very enthusiastic that Cameron is going about things the right way.
Now all he needs to do is start to convince some non-Conservatives.
It strikes me both reading this blog and watching the coverage that journalists are keen to have it all ways in this election and will contentedly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory for whichever party you wish to jump on at the time.
Its either Labour need to recognise a kick or the Conservatives shouldn't take a win too seriously - if it all means so little (or so much) then you should either be covering it more, or less. They say journalists are cynical about politics I can frankly say I am becoming cynical about journalists. You hide scandals until it suits you, you cover up sleaze and cover it in different ways for different parties and, watching the coverage of the elections, you make elections about you not other voters.
I find it laughable that if its a 'really bad night' for Labour you say oh well never mind the Tories can't dwell on it. But if it isn't you'll probably say its a ringing endorsement of Blair.
Self important, self interested corrupt individuals sat around naval gazing and indulging in self congratulation. You or the politicians? Take your choice. It strikes me watching this coverage that you are well matched and welcome to each other - its a shame both of you inflict yourselves on the rest of us.
I'd say cease having an agenda and start honestly covering the issues. But then I suppose that would be boring. For you. And at the end of the day this is apparently just all about you and the politicians whose affairs you conceal, until it suits you of course.
What is going on with labour ministers tonight, very jumpy, contradicting each other, good fun to watch. Is there a resuffle tomorrow? Keep it up Nick, its nice to see John (not my drugs) Reid having to cover for every labour member that comes to interview. When they start having to rely on faulty ear pieces.....
Nick,
Without a doubt it’s very important for the budding PM to have proof to show to his sceptics that he is the right man for the job and what better way than nicking seats from labour and other parties. With the amount of scandal and mismanagement plaguing the labour government through out this week voters are bound to go to other parties and not just the conservatives. Sure we are seeing revival from the traditional conservative voters and newly recruited voters, but the question is can they hold these voters to the general election and will the David Cameron hype last until then. Labour leads on the icm poll on who is best to run the economy which is a key indicator of which party will be elected on the national level. A danger of deception indeed for Mr Cameron if he was to use this to show his sceptics he is PM material, but local election always deceptive.
Well its nice to see Tessa (Off shore Morgages r us)Jowell, Simon (the straight choice, but not really, only for elections) Hughes arriving for the night shift. Can you remind Tessa that according to the most recent poll more people trusted the media that the present government and she is a prime example why.
Nick, the Tories are making much of the long road they have to travel to get back to power. So can the revival of their core vote be a good thing as part of this? Three, maybe four years from a General Election is a good time to rebuild your core support with the aim of bedding it down. As policies role out over the next couple of years they can then look at expanding that to other areas. Plus, I seem to recall it been mentioned that the Tories should benefit next time from Boundary reviews. With the cricket season upon us maybe Dave's settling in for a test match rather than a game of 20-20 that the media would prefer?