Iranian options
- 3 Jan 07, 09:44 AM
In all those New Year predictions there is one country which features again and again 鈥 Iran.
Just before Christmas the United Nations Security Council voted unanimously to impose sanctions against the Islamic Republic over its failure to halt its nuclear programme. Iran's response was to announce the immediate installation of centrifuges at a uranium enrichment plant - a vital stage in the process of producing weapons-grade material.
Iran insists her aim is only to produce energy. Pretty much everyone else fears it鈥檚 to develop the bomb putting nuclear weapons into the hands of a leader who disputes Israel鈥檚 right to exist, questions the Holocaust and has sponsored violence in Lebanon, in Iraq and against Israel.
The focus for now is on diplomacy but in America and Israel there is talk about what military action could be used as a last resort. Some weeks ago 鈥減repare to deploy鈥 orders were issued to the US navy ships who would be needed to blockade Iranian ports.
What should Britain's role be? To oppose military action in all circumstances, to offer logistical and diplomatic support or to stand aside and leave Israel and America to do what they will?
Tonight you can hear me hosting Decision Time - the programme which examines how decisions are taken behind Whitehall's closed doors - on Radio 4. During the debate, Sir Malcolm Rifkind - the former Conservative foreign and defence secretary - will say that it is vital that Iran believes that we carry a credible stick as well as have generous carrots on offer. He prefers carrots and advocates a "Grand Bargain" - promising Iran that if she ends her nuclear aspirations and support for terror then America will resume full diplomatic and trading relations with her.
Sir Jeremy Greenstock - who, as our man at the UN, was a familiar voice during the build up to the war against neighbouring Iraq - predicts that no British government would support military action - whether taken by Israel or the United States. The consequences of them acting alone would, he predicts, be grave.
Sir Stephen Wall 鈥 the prime minister鈥檚 former adviser on Europe - explains how the Foreign Office, the Ministry of Defence and officials at No 10 will be assessing the options.
And they all hear Reuel Marc Gerecht - a former CIA specialist on Iran who advised the Iraq Study Group - warn that in the past 12 months there's been a "tidal shift in Israel", meaning that it is "likely if not highly likely" that they will seek to do it by the end of George Bush's presidency.
Decision Time on Iran is drawing near.
Happy New Year! The holidays are, I'm afraid, over.
