United for how much longer?
- 16 Jan 07, 12:50 PM
Three hundred years ago today the proud Parliament of an independent Scotland voted to form a union with England. From that day to this Scots have argued whether Rabbie Burns was right to say that they'd been "bought and sold for English gold". The governments in Westminster and Edinburgh dare not organise a celebration of this anniversary which is so vital to our nation's history (beyond, that is, ).
Last week I had the privilege of reading the original hand-written minutes of the Parliamentary debates about the Union (watch my report here). Lord Belhaven's warning jumped from the page:
- "I think I see the Honest Industrious Trades-man loaded with new Taxes and Impositions, disappointed of the Equivalents, drinking Water in Place of Ale, eating his saltless Pottage"
The Earl of Cromartie wrote that he was rather more enthusiastic about becoming British:
- "May we be Brittains; & down goe the old ignominious names of Scotland; of England... Brittains is our true our Honourable denomination."
So, will this be the year the union is strengthened or fatally weakened?
The polls - - appear at first sight to tell a confusing story. In truth, the story is rather simple. Many voters want to give Labour a kicking in May's elections to the Scottish Parliament. Many believe that the best way to do that is to vote SNP even if they do not support independence. The polls show that support for breaking the union is no higher than it has been provided people understand the question they're being asked. Ask them whether they back "independence" and as many as half say they do (it is, perhaps, like asking if they support "freedom"). Ask a harder question about breaking away from England - as our 大象传媒 poll did - and the figure plummets.
So, the politics of the next few months will involve the nationalists playing down their plans for independence by promising a referendum on the issue one day rather than pledging a swift, clean break. Labour, on the other hand, will play up the uncertainty the Nationalists will create and the economic consequences that will pose.
Meantime, the Tories are pondering whether to embrace calls for "English votes for English laws" - supported in our poll today. It is tempting them because it's popular, it highlights Gordon Brown's Scottishness and many believe it's fair. Mr Brown's nightmare scenario is that the SNP become Scotland's largest party, delay a referendum on independence until they can raise the fear of Tory rule from Westminster again and that that proves enough to persuade Scottish voters to abandon caution and take a giant leap into the unknown.
It's one more reason why 2007 promises to be intriguing.
