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A long night ahead

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Nick Robinson | 22:46 UK time, Thursday, 3 May 2007

The word from Scotland is that turnout is high - i.e. in the mid 50s, compared with under 50% at the last election. Labour believes that many of its traditional working class supporters have been "coming home" in the last couple of days prompted, in part, by the vigorous support of Scotland's two biggest tabloids - the Record and the Sun. However, no-one I'm speaking to - in any of the parties - dares call the outcome and all predict a long night ahead.

Many are pondering the distinct possibility that the SNP could become the biggest party but their leader may fail to get elected.

Alex Salmond launched his bid to lead Scotland in a different seat to the one he represents at Westminster and one that requires a big swing from the Lib Dems. The theory was that if he failed to win it he could still get into Holyrood under the "top up" system of proportional representation. Ironically, though, if his party does well enough to win other constituencies in that region the SNP would not get a "top up" and Salmond could be a leader unable to lead.

Intriguing. Please send me any intelligence you have about voting where you live.

Comments

  • 1.
  • At on 03 May 2007,
  • The Saint wrote:

In terms of intelligence on voting down here (Northampton - specifically Wootton in the south). I discussed in my polling station the fact that none of the parties had made any attempt whatsoever to communicate with us either in person at the door, or through the letter box. This was something they were apparently hearing all day. No wonder people are turning away from voting, if they are not being engaged, and don't know what they would be voting for.

Good luck staying awake Nick - think of your beloved Man Utd's defence in Milan, the nightmare's will keep waking you up!

  • 2.
  • At on 03 May 2007,
  • wrote:

While we waiting for the election special I'm finding the good kicking Hewitt is getting on Question Time VERY entertaining.

  • 3.
  • At on 03 May 2007,
  • wrote:

The Saint, politics is increasingly about ignoring swathes of citizens in favour of a few swing voters.

It's to help avoid the masses that political parties, having raised money through dubious means, now want the public to fund their billboards, flyers and ads.

Afterall, a glossy ad is much easier than meeting voters and getting a rough reception in a local church hall.

  • 4.
  • At on 03 May 2007,
  • The Saint wrote:

Martin (MayorWatch)

Quite right, but we didn't even get any glossy ads here! Plus this was a hung council with no overall control!

Why you watching mayors anyway? Sounds like a dubious, and from what I've seen, possibly a dull hobby? Is there a subversive society of mayor watchers? I bet Jeffery Archer's in it!

  • 5.
  • At on 03 May 2007,
  • wrote:

Saint, it's only a single Mayor we watch - the Mayor of London so not at all dull!

  • 6.
  • At on 03 May 2007,
  • wrote:

Here in Scotland confusion has been the name of the game for many activists over the long day out on the streets. Combine the brand new proportional representation system in local government (i.e. list the candidates in order of preference) with the complex Holyrood contituency and list voting sytem, throw in the spice of a postal voting system in two envelopes with incorrect instructions to include your date of birth in a non-existent box, and a recipe for muddle is already very apparent. And I haven't even mentioned the uncertainties of computerised optical character read ballor papers or new and flimsy plastic ballot boxes yet...the ingredients for collapse are present in virtually all respects.

As the "only Green in the Village" - but unable to vote Green on the constituency list, I found myself juggling Labour realism (constituency) and Green idealism(List) rosettes on either lapel. On the streets I was mainly supporting our excellent local MSP, who happens to be Labour, and also has a strong environmental track record. Former colleagues from the Scottish Labour Party were curious - to say the least - about the large Green placard outside my house, until I explained the mathematics that one vote on the list for the Greens = 20 votes for Labour: only then did they start making the connection.

Have we created a tactical voting monster through our desire to move away from first past the post to a fairer system? Certainly tactical voting has graduated from an abstract science into the realm of the black arts, and socially-aware Labour/Green activists like me now find ourselves advising veteran Labour voters that a vote for Labour on the list is tantamount to a suicide wish. The truth is stranger than fiction....

Who would have believed that we could have two Christian parties deadlocked in such bitter competition for a handful of homophobic votes, or three Marxist parties cutting each others throats so effectively from ward to ward? And the much vaunted SNP has locally split into two bitter factions, with a group of former SNP - now independent - councillors taking on the mainstream SNP. It's the strangest election I've ever been involved in....and the results will probably be equally as strange across Scotland.

It's democracy...but not as we know it...beam me up Scotty!

  • 7.
  • At on 03 May 2007,
  • Steve wrote:

I think it would be a fantastic twist of irony to see Salmond not able to take up a place in the Scottish Parliament. THAT would certainly wipe that smug grin off his face!

  • 8.
  • At on 03 May 2007,
  • wrote:

Let's hope David's prediction of a slump in support for the BNP proves to be the case.

  • 9.
  • At on 03 May 2007,
  • Dave wrote:

Is there anyone taking bets on the exact time the words 'protest vote' are first uttered by a Labour MP?

  • 10.
  • At on 03 May 2007,
  • wrote:

Ooh here's Dr Doom himself, anyone want to take bets on how long Reid can go without predicting imminent death and destruction for us all?

  • 11.
  • At on 03 May 2007,
  • Matthew wrote:

polling in braintree is extraordinarily low. this is good news for the tories as most casual voters here are tories. Strangely it is tory vs labour with no lib dem prescence here or any standing. My neighbour who is standing as a tory councillor for the first time is certainly confident...

  • 12.
  • At on 04 May 2007,
  • Adam wrote:

We received the mandatory leaflets through the door a couple of weeks prior to polling. All parties seem to try and pick up on the latest big issue (wheelie bin collections....) and think voters are dumb enough to vote for them based on the current hot topic alone. In my 12 years as an eligible voter I have only been canvassed properly once.

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