大象传媒

I am also hearing from confrence delegates that regional officials were called back to their offices on tuesday evening. Incidently, has anyone else heard details of a possible Tory defection next week?

Nick,

As you know I have been highlighting this factor on your Blog for a while.

I still find it interesting that on the Labour party website they use to put closing dates on the jobs that they advertised and now they do not!

Even more interestingly the jobs currently on offer are mainly policy development Jobs or technical appointments requiring a lot of experience. In essence both types of roll are required in any period leading up or into a general election. The policy development operatives would have to work day and night to not only formulate sufficient policy but test it on the relevant groups to find its appeal. That is what the Labour party have done in the past and will continue to do so in the future.

I am of the opinion that Labour know that they have been rumbled in these 鈥渟pin鈥� machinations associated with elections by their organisational shambles. I think they are playing politics instead of running a government of change.

Now that would be one heck of a way to get the viewers in for the 10 o'clock new tonight. Rather than watching Billy Piper on a digital channel viewers could watch Nick Robinson jogging on the beach, or even giving his report whilst jogging! (I dares you!).

The Equaliser is reborn, Jack must have been exposed to those special rays that made him what he is today, a Superhero; the downside is that it has also made him somewhat boring.

He's also considerably shorter than you Nick. Once I saw him run - grey trousers flapping like a school boy- across Whitehall, narrowly avoiding a, surely unwinnable, confrontation with a 53 bus. Since then he has always been Little Jacky Straw to me and my Cab Office colleagues. Four lollypops for have-a-go Jacky. One small can of Red Bull for Jog-a-long Nick.

I remember that for the 97 election we were planning and campaigning more than two years in advance, so recruiting now isn't necessarily proof of an election anytime before 2009/10.

...these players should not be allowed to fix the date to suit their ploys.

This is just a ploy to divert media attention from Boris Johnson is it?! Or is the timing a pure coincidence?

Of course they're gearing up for an election campaign. The signs are all there. Apologising for errors following 7/7, saying they're reviewing the law protecting have-a-go-hero's....

None of what they say they're doing is true, they're merely saying it to dig for votes.

Gordon sat there through Blairs 10 years and didnt voice his disquiet over the way the nation was headed, for fear that he'd never get his hands on the reigns.... now he's got there, he's making his cabinate sing the song we've all wanted them to sing for years.... i just hope to god people dont buy it.

How come these jobs are not on their website?

I thought Labour were an equal opportunities employer? Should they not be advertising these things as per the legislation that they keep implementing?

I think it is a bogus piece of spin but an election would be welcome as I can cast a vote against Brown. His moral compass never extends beyond furthering the interests of the Labour party. You ask Pensioners, public sector employees, mortgage holders, farmers, flood victims, Tax Credit claw back victims (I notice they have said recently that a government overpayment to many credit recipients does not have to be paid back at the moment 鈥� post election bill?), 600,000 dead Iraqis, under funded troops and the victims of crime what they think of Mr Brown鈥檚 Moral compass. I think they will advise him of a particular place to keep it!

I have just taken part in an IBM phone poll which although disguised, I took to be a survey to see whether the government should call a snap election

Don't do yourself too much of an injustice, Nick - many of the residents of a certain part of North London have seen you jogging around a certain park from time to time, even wearing a 大象传媒 T-shirt just to make sure we know it's you!

I thought you jogged pretty well....

Jack Straw sounded like an bumbling idiot this morning. Raising this issue now clearly is unjustified nad a ruse to deflect attention away from matters Labour does not want to talk about i.e. it failures poor services and high tax. When are we going to see the media stick Labour to its high borrowing, poor services and high tax.

Nick,

He may be known as 'The Justice' on your local streets, but in this area he's known as 'The Man of Straw'.

What's interesting is that there is vociferous denial that Clarke's findings have anything to do with the current situation. What's changed since then?

As to a General Election, well Brown may fancy his chances but we shall see. There's enormous anger out there on the streets. And when people realise that the economic miracle is about to crash they may just vote another way. Bear in mind that much of Brown's perception of the world is determined by his researchers and advisors - who are telling him what he wants to hear.

" ... much more fitter ..." - what kind of English is that? Either "much fitter" or "much more fit" would be correct.

Hi Nick, I do not mean any harm, but does not the media know more then the politicians and the public. I would ask any political journalist as to whether there is going to be an election and when! Ending journalistic contributions by a question in ALL that is said does not make for a better and accurate reporting!
In the meantime Nick, next week we shall see more defections from the Tories and this time MPs as well. Let us see who is better informed Nick!
Enjoy your jogging in Bournemouth while you can Nick, cause in the coming weeks you are going to be very busy indeed! I'll give you a hint Nick, this coming conservative conference is a special one.

Gordon Brown is a master of political theatre. He's ensured that next weeks Tory Party conference will be overshadowed by the possible election. An election that ain't going to happen.

You are being taken in Nick. Outside the Westminister Village people know that Labour (still licking it's wounds from a drubbing in elections in May)will be taking a high risk by seeking an election now.

Nowhere more high risk than in Brown's Scottish backyard and powerbase. Alex Salmond of the SNP is still in his honeymoon as First Minister in Scotland and will relish the chance to make this a vote of confidence in himself. Labour in Scotland are still grieving the loss of the parliamnet and most local authorities.

Why on earth would the Labour Party want to divert media attention from Boris Johnson?

Nick, while you were on holiday, Laura blogged to say she didn't believe for a minute that Labour would call an autumn election for the simple reason that they don't have enough money to fight one. Do you agree with that analysis, and if so, is it still true, or have their finances taken a turn for the better since then?

It certainly sounds like a convincing reason to me not to expect an election any time soon. Plus the fact that GB has waited 10 years to be PM, and I would be astonished if he were to take the risk of only being in the role for a few months.

Nick,
It always amazes me that you still have a trust in anything that Labour do.After all this time do you not have a ever increasing feeling that you have been conned by them,this latest wheeze of an election could be just another con.
So much for a change in the way things are governed by Gorgon Broon.

Ah, yes, the same Jack Straw who was also busy yesterday explaining why Scottish votes for Scottish matters had strengthened the union whilst having English votes for English matters would somehow be wrecking it.

Frankly, if he can lie that "big" on one subject, I don't see that it's really worth listening to anything he's claiming about anything else.

Why is my comment continually blocked? Or is the word piffle when applied in the same sentence as Brown viewed as malicious?

Of course he's faster and fitter - Jack Straw learned his running skills legging it from the police during his firebrand far left agitator days at uni.

I presume that in the interests of political balance you will be jogging with the Conservatives on Blackpool's beach next week!

All the time Brown was PM in waiting, the idea of a 'snap' election was alwyas going to be on the cards. The longer he's in power, the sooner he, and his government, and its lack of credible policies will be found wanting.
Brown is aware of the troubles awaiting to emerge and wants to secure his next 5 years as soon as possible. Why did Ed Balls say he did not want to be the Chancellor of the Exchequer when Brown moved upwards? Because as Brown's right hand man he knew what was to come and so was prepared to settle for the lesser evil of education.
Brown's next tactic (even though he says he's not thinking about it - sic) will be to announce the election during the Conservative conference to avoid them getting the publicity and a post 'conference boost' in ratings.

Brown would be crazy to call an election during Tory confrence as the journos will be in Blackpool and will be furious at missing this at first hand. Simon Hoggart never forgave Liberals for keeping him in Harrogate during Black Tueday. Brown is more likely to call it immediately afterwards to keep speculation running as a distraction during Tory conf and wipe out any positive coverage for Cameron the weekend after which is when the Sunday papers analyse conferences.

Faced with the prospect of spending half a week in Blackpool I'd be thinking seriously about defecting, too.

Too many freezing cold dank Easters at LPYS conferences, digged up in draughty attics, force fed with Trotskyite drivel from the "Militant" nutters that held sway at the time - Blackpool gives me the shivers!

Beware Brown's attempt at big tent politics. This is no more nor less than an attempt to create a one party state. All of the other abuses of freedom will pale in to insignifcance if he is allowed to get away with it.

I would be astonished if Brown doesn't go for a snap poll. There is no way on earth that Cameron can win an Autumn Election. Cameron's call for Brown to call the Election is like a poker player with a rubbish hand trying to bluff. Brown should respond with an 'all-in'. Call the Election and crush Cameron. The Tories would be effectively finished. They will have no tolerance for five more years in opposition under Cameron and will stab him in the back.

Nick,

Jack Straw is in this morning's paper claiming that the Tory plans to correct the injustice of the devolution arrangements (introduced by this government)by only allowing English MP's to vote on purely English affairs (to give the English parity with their Scottish cousins)is a danger to the Union. Typical disingenuity from the man. It was Labour that created this rift against good advice about the risks, but they now seek to place the blame elsewhere. Why should we believe anything that he has to say? He changes his position on everything as often as I change my socks.

I'm sorry but reporting this may be interesting but surely Nick must realise he - like most political journalists - is being used?

When I say "used" I mean that the timing is clealry meaant to put pressure on the Opposition.

Now I have no difficulty with political parties playing politics:-).. but political journalists should not allow themselves to appear pawns of the politicians.

And frankly that's what they have become. Jack Straw's interview was a disgrace and a Ed Balls' earlier this week made Jack Straw competent. Did the interviewers/journalists expose them?
Of course not.

Personally I think since Gilligan and WMD, they've all lost their brains (I was going to day testicles but some are female).

It's a non story. Clearly timed to rattle the Opposition. A new employye takes 3 months to become effective.

Go figure.

Live political inteviews are generally a complete waste of time and space - as the actual questions are ignored and talked out.

However straws interview on r4 this morning was not too bad -- he said that he went along with things he did not agree with, and witheld his genuine views when it was convenient to do so.

Whither his courage when it really matters?

Nick,

Jack Straw is in this morning's paper claiming that the Tory plans to correct the injustice of the devolution arrangements (introduced by this government)by only allowing English MP's to vote on purely English affairs (to give the English parity with their Scottish cousins)is a danger to the Union. Typical disingenuity from the man. It was Labour that created this rift against good advice about the risks, but they now seek to place the blame elsewhere. Why should we believe anything that he has to say? He changes his position on everything as often as I change my socks.

There is an interesting contrast between Jack Straw's "have a go hero" approach and the official line Tony McNulty followed on Newsnight a little while ago, when he basically said that even if you're watching a little old lady being beaten up in the street, you should just keep a safe distance and call the police like a good little citizen. I wasn't a huge fan of Straw as Home Secretary, but at least he seems to have *some* decency -- unlike the Labour Party in general, which now seems to be falling over itself to say how wrong it got everything that voters didn't like for the past decade. Anyone want to bet that they'll suddenly be taking an interest in alternatives to congestion charging and ID cards next week?

Jack Straw's inspirational have-a-go tales reassure me that we have a P.M. happy in the company of strong characters.

Jack stands up - often on his marketplace milk crate - to say and do the right thing. His 20% Muslim constituency reelected him with a mere -1.9% swing against the Iraq War Foreign Secretary who prefers not to be addressed through a niqab.

The spin-bleaters should accept that Democracy requires politicians and politics requires positive presentation. Would they prefer poor politicians to run the U.K.?

In August my other half was asked to take part in a focus group-type event in London aimed at people who had voted Labour in 2001 but hadn't in 2005.

I guess those results have all now been fed into the system, digested and analysed.

There might not be anything significant in this at all but the timing is interesting. Why conduct a survey like this at the height of summer just two years after the last General?

I'm starting to think he will go for it.

I found the whole Radio 4 confession of machismo completely unedifying.

For a start, Sarah Montague asked Straw why he didn't change the law then when he was Home Secretary.

Too busy presiding over an Office 'unfit for purpose' clearly.

He then blustered, um and ahhed his way through the rest of the prepared speech as Ms Montague gleely played with the open goal presented to her.

In short, he came across as a Walter Mitty character selling sunshine to the electorate. I am sure they were not fooled.

This was Straw posturing to the Daily Mail readers, all part of Brown's spin and baseless promises to woo the electorate into another ineffectual Labour term in office.

Nick, you might be fooled but many of the electorate are not.

As for the polls, well, I would suggest the Tory voters are staying quiet..... if Labour really were 10 points ahead they would have called an election weeks ago. The Tories are staying quiet to lull this man into the open, no more McCavity and then to electoral defeat.

Labour know only too well that Ashcroft's marginal seat campaign machine could kneecap Labour to defeat regardless of any national poll. The Tories have been campaigning in these seats for months and months already.

More importantly, Labour have no idea what the Tories have up their sleeves next week. Why else would Brown not lay into them on policy? In terms of policy ideas, the Tories have them beaten hands down at present, Labour look weak.

I'll tell you why Labour look weak, they cannot play on Tory policy, do that and they have no room to steal any of them. So they play the man with plenty of apparatchik's trotting out the Tory leader and shadow cabinet 'flaws'.

A sure sign that they are frightened of a centrist Tory election platform.

Personally, I would love to see Gordon call one, the sooner he goes, the better.

My good friend is thinking about calling an election... Is it a good/bad idea to call an election this Friday/Saturday in view of the Conservative conference?

What would be the best timing to disrupt the conference or divert media attention from it?

No spin intended

Best regards
Gordie

I'd prefer him to wait and spend time re-building the roles of cabinet and parliamentary debate.
Economic doom has been predicted for the last 10 years, and this will continue until it happens. The problem for Cameron's supporters, is that the longer it takes before we have a downturn (two consecutive quarters of negative growth, so it's not coming any time soon), the more hollow the "I told you so" will sound. Much better to concentrate on their "wasted taxes" argument. There at least it's very difficult to resist the anecdotal evidence of failures. Also the last thing Cameron should do is suggest what he would do now to improve things - better to follow the example of his supporters above, and highlight the negatives, possibly throw in some personal insults too, that should win over the floating voters, n'est-ce pas? I'm not a confirmed Labour voter, but the more I read the comments on this site, the more I'm leaning to them. Stick to the facts, Nick, and don't be influenced by accustions of bias from either side.

People will say Brown is being cautious if he doesn't call an election now. That is wrong.

The cautious thing to do would be to call an election now, knowing with 99% certainty that he will win and give Labour a guaranteed five more years.

The risky thing would be wait until the proper time, Spring/Summer 2009, and fight an election on his own record as Prime Minister.

One thing is certain, if the Tories lose an October/November election, they will be disappointed but could put it down to the 'Brown bounce' and the fact Cameron has not had enough time to fully remodel the party. They would remain a threat for a 2011 election.

But if the Tories lose in 2009, after having two years to make the anti-Brown case, they will be utterly demoralised, discredited, and surely out of power for a generation.

That is the big reward Brown could gain if he took a real risk and waited two years. Going for it now is less of a risk, with less reward.

Who cares?! The only people who care about whether or not there'll be a snap election are Nick Robinson and his Westminster village chums, and the constant over-hyped and breathless speculation that is going on across the media will do nothing except turn more and more voters off at a time when we need to encourage participation. If the media would just wait to see what the Government announces, when it announces it, and not worry about whether it's first with the news or right in its speculation, then perhaps people would feel less jaded and more inclined to participate. As it is the media just drives the perception that 'politics is for them and not relevant to us' - and turnouts tumble. Grow up please - the world is not a tabloid!

2 days ago I said talk of an autumn election was ludicrous.I have changed my mind.I sense that we have gone beyond the point of this being propoganda to stabilise the opposition to the pooimt where senior cabinet ministers I think now genuinely believe this is their last best chance to win the election and the current feeling of enthusiasm and positivity in the party will be hard to recover if they are told it'snot going to happen.I think there is now a 70-90 % chance of a general election being called in the next 10 days or so.

Oh please stop!

The only story here is 'the Labour party continues to try to manipulate the news agenda rather than either geting on with government or calling an election' and that has been the case for weeks.

Please let's not fall for it, but rather focus on whatever they're trying to deflect attention from instead.

You might think that the law is there to be obeyed and indeed it is.

But the more knowledgeable and sophisticated people amongst us tend to view the law in a slightly different light, that is, to be deployed as a tool to further their own ends.

I'm sure that Jack Straw is fully aware of the distinction.

Strange interpretation of the Home Secretary's job description - that he had to catch all the criminals himself.

If the PM is genuine that he wants to lead a government of change, then he will be needing a larger majority - and for that he will need to thump the tories in to touch in a general election, which at the moment is perfectly plausible.
At the moment he has no credible opposition anyway. I just watched Boris and Dave blithering on, and, if I were Conservative, I'd want to delay a poll for a while. The Conservatives need to get their act together frankly. The Lib Dems have quietly re-assembled themselves and could take on the Conservatives in a lot of seats without really discomforting Labour.
The real worry for the tories is that they our being outperformed on their own ground. Just like "Democrats for Reagan" in the 80's, it may well be "Conservatives for Gordon" this time.
And I know it's Labour's week, but I haven't heard David Cameron's voice in quite a whule. He is being shut out very skillfully by Brown - jeez - even Norman Tebbit prefers our Gord!

whenever Gordon decides whats right for him as far as i am concerned.
.....A Gordon is NOT for me and (i hope)
a Gordon is NOT for you!..........

I trust any 'run' to benefit by perceived popularity will be truly rounded upon by voters who, whatever their views on Europe will hold him to his promise of a referendum on the Constitution.

I think it's a little rich for the Nick to say that Gordon Brown might find himself out of favour if after all this hype he doesn't call an election, when the 大象传媒 is causing most of the hype. The fact Labour are recruiting has been one of the top two stories all day, and so far as I can tell means precisely nothing in terms of timing of an election. By all means report news, but this wouldn't be the first time recently the 大象传媒 had caused it (see the overreporting of the Northern Rock issue as a real concern when in reality, backed by the Bank of England, it was nothing of the sort), and I'm not sure I like this new direction.

Although G Brown knows that he would surely win the election if held now, there is one reason, and one reason only why he will not. That is because his own private polls (which he is conducting right now) are predicting that he will lose his seat to the SNP.

Why oh why is it taking you English so long to rumble Brown? We, in Scotland, have already done so. That is why we now have an SNP Government in power here.

For heavens sake -get a life.Do NOT vote for him-if you do-you will not forget the consequences over the next 5 years in a hurry!

Although G Brown knows that labour would surely win the election if held now, there is one reason, and one reason only why he will not. That is because his own private polls (which he is conducting right now) are predicting that he will lose his seat to the SNP.

Why oh why is it taking you English so long to rumble Brown? We, in Scotland, have already done so. That is why we now have an SNP Government in power here.

For heavens sake -get a life.Do NOT vote for him-if you do-you will not forget the consequences over the next 5 years in a hurry!

"Would they prefer poor politicians to run the U.K.?"

Rhetorical question.
We've got them already.

If G Brown has the courage of his convictons he will go for a snap election. The economy is not looking so hot, and he has not managed to deliver over the past 10yrs., so better to go before people see through the new suit, hair do and the story of his life. We can wait for the biography.

Labour has only two things it can do and in both cases it may well lose number one: go for an october poll in which Gordon Brown will have his record as the man who ran the economy torn to dust and this would also take into acount his money grab on the O.A.P's of this country. Number two wait until spring of 2008 or 2009 and then go to the polls and lose,the country wants change but can Dave do it, i think a box of Hat Tricks waits for gordon but who will win, it's going to be a close run thing this time no land slide for any party.

Nick, did the "大象传媒 learn in the last 24 hours" about Labour hiring election help because it was, er... on the front page of the Guardian, by any chance? Quite the exclusive!

If the Tories get an election in november, which month would they like the next one in 2008?

And will their party political broadcasts be based on the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail?

"Come on, closer . . . I"ll nut yer . . ." as their limbless torso is drawn into the ground . . .

Is this the same as John Major giving us a general election election within weeks of taking over from Mrs. Thatcher back in 1990 ?? No, I didn't think it so.

All these political commentators - given that an election is not due till 2010 - should either -

a) comment on something far more relevant or

b) get a life..........