Union discontent
So, are we heading for a Winter of Discontent? The posties’ union - the CWU - are threatening more national strikes today. The TUC looks set to back a motion calling for "coordinated industrial action". And last week local government workers in Unison rejected an improved pay offer.
There is, it's clear, real discontent in the unions. There's anger at what they see as, at best, a centrally imposed public sector pay freeze and, at worst, real pay cuts. There's fury at Gordon Brown's to that arch critic of the unions, Digby Jones. And there's brewing annoyance at his efforts to curb their power to debate and vote on topical or so-called contemporary motions at Labour Conference.
But - and it's an important but - the appetite for a confrontation with the government is limited to a couple of unions - the civil servants' union, the PCS and the prison officers’ union, the POA. Unison negotiated an improved pay offer for health service workers in England which looks set to be backed in a ballot - first results should trickle out this evening. The union's leadership were proud to have secured a better package for those working in town halls and are likely to do all they can to get a marginal improvement that allows them to avoid going on strike.
Ministers believe that its strikes there - in hospitals or town halls - which the public would notice, would care about and which would raise echoes of the Winter of Discontent. They are reasonably content to sit out trouble in the prisons, job centres and benefit offices and the post office.
What one ally of the prime minister told me yesterday is that the unions were simply staging precisely the fight which Gordon Brown wanted - proving to the public his willingness to stand up to the unions in order to defend economic stability.
So, will there be a Winter of Discontent? The same question's been asked pretty much every winter since the first - and only proper - one in 1979. The answer now is the same as it's always been - almost certainly not.
That, of course, doesn’t stop journalists using the phrase. I remember in one of my first jobs in TV in the mid-80s being asked to research a piece about a new Winter of Discontent. I managed to kill it when I pointed out that the programme I was working on had - only six months earlier - made a film predicting the death of the unions. Both couldn't be true then and they aren't true now.
I'm 
Comments
I'm surprised you bothered reporting it at all - Gordon gets a hard time from the unions and he is the 3rd item on Newsnight. Anita Roddick got more coverage on newsnight. If this had been Cameron it would have been a half-hour spread.
Cameron lurches to the right - 2 weeks of coverage. Brown lurches to the right - good for Gordon!!
The only plus point is that if this amount of noise is coming through all the under-reporting then Brown is in for a very bad time.
He deserves it. He created these economic problems in the first place and I hope they bring him down. That would be justice!
Oh Nick where are your sense of priorities?
There is a new moggy living at number 10 yet you have decided to focus on some non-story about industrial unrest.
I demand an immediate inquiry into the ´óÏó´«Ã½'s new priorities !
The unions are a total waste of time.
I've met loads of people who've needed their help and I always hear the same thing - "the union guy told me he couldn't help me."
Thery're a total waste of space and desperatley need overhauling - every single one of them. And I'm saying this as someone who used to back the unions to the hilt.
Since Thatcher criminalised them they've become cretinous. They are just another one of this country's many living jokes.
Brown is playing with fire. Blair never ever questioned the Unions, and yet Brown is already moving in for the kill.
Surely there has to be a backlash from the lefties at some point? The prospect of an early election looks more distant every day.
Brown seems to be setting himself up for a good kicking from the left, and inviting derision from both left and right. In this, he's taking up where Blair left off, ie the "third way"As long as interest rates don't shoot up, and employment remains plentiful, his electoral prospects won't be harmed, but he does need time for the NHS situation to improve. It will be interesting to see what the opposition says about pay restraint, (and lack thereof in the city.) Does this mean an election will be delayed? I'm looking forward to quite a bit of ideological debate between now and next May - particularly if Boris Johnson stands for mayor of London.
Should we be ready for a winter of discontent? Now let's see!
The unions were, are and will always be disconent with pay deals no matter who is in government.
To push for a massive strike that might bring the U.K. to it's knees, will mean more job losses and more business out of the U.K. not to mention that the Tories will be back through the back door and I for one will be voting for them as well (that's if the unions make us do that). Nick, the unions need to learn that people like myself (exTory) are the ones that are keeping Labour in office, and as soon as we smell a nasty pong from the old left, we jump ships, which incidentaly will result in years in opposition for the Labour Party.
Nick, at the moment I can't see how the unions have a face to ask for more % in pay packets when through their glorious years fighting for the poor, (sic) they did not even manage to impliment a MINIMUM WAGE and that's when they were at the helm of the old labour party. Did the unions get their minimum wage under Thatcher? No they did not, cause they have no balls and in my view they are still non democratic socialists, eh sorry, communists.
I say to the unions and their bosses,
H Y P O C R I T E S
Oh, by the way Nick, can we get to know what each and every individual union boss earns and how much tax he or she pays? because they are always after the big bosses pay packet but we hardly know anything about their personal earnings! Have a nice day Nick.
The unions are a spent force in this country. Union power, membership and especially public support have all collapsed. Watching these old union barons plotting a 'new winter of discontent' is like watching the scene in Downfall where Hitler is commanding his armies to counter attack despite the fact that they've all fled or been destroyed.
I agree with Brian on this one,Brown is like a political dinosaur and he is about to get his comeupance.There are loads of problems in this country and a lot of them have been bubbling away and getting worse for some time.The main instigator of those problems is a certain Gordon Brown.Not only is there a feeling of discontent in the unions,a lot of the population are discontented,just read the message boards.
In the military there has been talk of "tipping points"in Iraq etc,I think we are heading for a political tipping point.
Just one more point,20 years ago the Balance of Payments was talked about in the media as a major factor in the Economy.Why is it now seemingly ignored,especially when it it is getting worse.
Personally speaking, but don't think I'm alone, since this crew of make-believe politicions got voted in I've had 10 discontented winters (spring, summer & autumn too)
"The appetite for a confrontation with the government is limited to a couple of unions - the civil servants' union, the PCS and the prison officers’ union, the POA."
So, three, then?
so, you're basically saying the public will suffer through strikes and then reelect this idiot? Brown is the worst kind of politician; proud in stance and hollow in delivery! God, give us a leader...
Should we be getting ready for an Autumn of Nick Robinson Bias in favour of Gordon Brown?
The answer, of course, is Yes...
The question that no-one has really answered above is who is there to stand up for the normal working person?
The Unions have shot themselves in the foot so many times, i am amazed that they are still going. The Labour Party, dead, killed by Blair. New Labour, aye right. They are now as bad as the Conservitives at riding roughshod over peoples concerns, just to appease middle England.
We do need some organisation to voice the concerns of the "normal working person", because no-one is doing it just now.
Brown has proved now, that he is a follower of Thatcher and is not fit to be a Labour MP Just as the other half Tory is,B-Liar by name.
TL Leeds
Brown has proved now, that he is a follower of Thatcher and is not fit to be a Labour MP Just as the other half Tory is,B-Liar by name.
TL Leeds
Yes, as other posters and your esteemed colleague Nick Assinder have reported, the real news is that there is a new cat at No. 10.
Us cat fanciers will be watching VERY closely to ensure that there is not a repeat of the Cruealla DeVille episode at No. 10.
That certainly, with the benefit of hindsight, turned out to be a particularly bad omen.
We, the English public can (and do) put up with a lot of things thrown at us by politicians, but if they dare to be unkind to animals, then their tenure will be cursed, if not catastrophic!
Why no mention of the £2.8 million that Gordon is giving to the unions in addition to £10m that they have already had. Bribery and corruption or just money laundering of funds going back to the Labour Party. Gordon has a moral compass - I don't think so!
Nick,
The only way we will see the unions flexing their muscles is if Brown is perceived to be weak. He is unlikely to cave in on public sector pay. However, terms and conditions beyond pay are likely to prove much more troublesome.
There is huge discontent on public sector pensions from those in the private sector. At some point this particular thorny problem will have to be confroted. Unfortunately for Brown, as people in the public sector see their purchasing power being reduced, they will come to view their salary linked pensions as being simultaneously squeezed even before the rules on age of retirement are tackled. In other words, public sector and private sector workers will both be squealing about public sector pensions at the same time. Pity poor Gordon if this also coincides with economic woes. There is after all, only so much revenue to be collected from the taxpayers before there is a negative impact on the economy.
I'm amazed at some of the previous comments and the ignorance posted.Gordon Brown drones on about creating jobs but is overseeing a campaign of 104000 job losses in the public sector.The DWP have just rejected a pay offer of 2% this year nothing the next year and 1% the year after,how many in the private sector would stand for that? a paycut in anyones eyes.The average salary in the Civil service is less than £16000 p/a.Hardly gold plated,
The Public sector is an easy target but when you're applying for a passport,wanting a tax refund of trying to sign on remember when it takes 3 times as long in the future who destroyed your public services.
If there are only ten bananas and there are ten people to eat them, it is fair to assume that each person will get one banana. If you keep the same number of bananas and you increase the number of people, then each person will not get an entire banana. Brown says that he is going to create 500,000 jobs. Where? Where is the money coming from? Salaries will be coming down to accommodate half a million more jobs and this is called redistribution. For example, to cut school class sizes you need more teachers and we assume the money is going to be there to pay for more teachers. Welfare payments are one of the biggest chunks of the budget, but even if all welfare payments were to be stopped the money saved would not be enough to pay for real jobs. A registered unemployed individual would get about 57 pounds a week. Is anybody willing to work for 57 pounds a week? We know the answer and therefore money has to be found to offer real salaries to real people. The money to pay for the 500,000 new jobs will have to come from reduced salaries. People will be paid less or they will be paying more taxes, which, when you think about it, it is practically the same.
Its nonsensical to say "the unions are a spent force".
Bob Crows underground train drivers union never seem to have much trouble getting what they want by threatening to bring the capital to its knees.
A combined strike of healthworkers and other crucial services will have a big impact - what is the government going to do - sack them all and ship in some more eastern europeans?
Along with the David Cameron Conservative Party and, the media in general, some Union leaders have underestimated Gordon Brown. Within hours of the POA striking the government was in court, strike over. Which other Labour PM would have done that. They must learn that when the PM says his first concern is economic stability he means he will take all measures to maintain economic stability, and not, oh well come around to No 10 and we'll talk about it over beer and sandwhiches.
Chris C wrote:
Oh Nick where are your sense of priorities?
There is a new moggy living at number 10 yet you have decided to focus on some non-story about industrial unrest.
I demand an immediate inquiry into the ´óÏó´«Ã½'s new priorities!
--------------------------
Quite right, Chris, I fully agree. So, come on Nick, lets have hard news stories for a change
By the way, is this new "Feline first lady" supposed to be a specific replacement for the "Canine first lady", so recently departed??
"They are reasonably content to sit out trouble in the prisons, job centres and benefit offices and the post office."
Now that says it all, those least able to defend themselves are thrown to the winds of chance.
In the last 'winter of discontent ' the public sector unions acted as unconscious election agents for Thatcher; however they were facing a weak minority Labour Government. It is a rather different story today.
Why shoud G Brown worry, the unions are hardly likely to vote for anyone else! He is trying to expand his appeal to a wider audience, so they are no longer so important to him. He is also trying to be a conviction politician! What a shame they let the retirement age for those on pensions paid for by the public stay at the level that the rest of us can only dream of. A bit of conviction, confrontation and commonsense there might have been better placed. That wlll have a more negative and far reaching impact on the economy, and is an area that ought to be revisited. As you rightly say he will look at which area we might notice problems, and keep them sweet.
He ia a reactionary politician, looking for the limelight, and therefore we are unlikely to have a real winter of dicontent.
I see [page 106 Ceefax last night] that the Public and Commercial Union will take co-ordinated industrial action unless a 2.5% rise is not improved !! I suggest that if the members don't like the pay offer that they leave and get jobs elesware. These jobs would mean that they would have to retire at 65 without inflation proof pensions, also only get 20/25 days holiday per year and not get umpteen weeks guaranteed sick pay. If Mark Serwotka beleives many of his menbers are on 'poverty wages'
he should be ashamed of himself taking union subscribtions from them
I bungled my comment so Nick nuked it before it got out the starting gate but this is a good story. It gets right to the heart of organisation, attitude, and leadership. Polly Toynbee wrote a on this. I think, she might be demanding too much too soon, and lacks a little subtlety but it's a ballpark response.
Nick,
A cynic might think that you are giving a lot of publicity to the usual 'we won't give in to union pressure' response that all Governments give to strike threats because it makes Brown look tough.
I can't remember a British government ever caving in to strike threats so why is Brown not doing it news?
Perhaps someone has got a little too close to Number 10 and need to take a lot of steps back.
I think the MPs payrise should be tied in to the proposals for the public sector - they are after all paid from the same pot of money. I wonder if this would influence any decisions made in the slightest by the only group of people I know who decide their own annual payrise?
#27 Dave: A nice idea, and in fact in the past the MP salary was tied to the civil service Higher Executive Officer salary scale. But of course MPs felt they were far more important than middle ranking civil servants so they removed this link and instead gave themselves the power to decide their own pay rises. As a result the current MP salary is now well over double even the highest of current HEO salaries, and in some departments more than triple.
It would be very risky to underestimate the level of discontent in the public sector over pay, because in many departments there have been a number of successive pay deals at below inflation, further increasing the gap between public and private sector pay, and the better public sector pensions no longer make up for this difference. Even amongst those who are primarily motivated by public service rather than money (as many public sector workers are), there is only so far you can cut pay before people say "enough", as Brown is in danger of finding out.
Gordon Brown is heading for disaster in a numbr of ways. It's just over two years ago since MG Rover closed, an absolute icon of British manufacturing and engineering. And now some serious questions are being asked about the Treasury's and the DTI's conduct in the period of negotiations between HMG and SAIC - questions that have not yet been answered. And still we are waiting for the enquiry into MGR's collapse to conclude.
Then there's consumer spending. Primarily based and fuelled by credit. Sucking in cheap imports, meaking our own manufactured goods uncopetative and more expensive abroad.
And there's imigration. On the governments own calculations we have over a million work-shy dole scroungers who could work but choose not to, so why the ruch for cheap labour from abroad?
There's inflation which the governments manipulated figures are in stark contrast to the experiences of ordinary people who can see prices rising on domestic fuel, council tax and food etc.
So now we have the unions telling Mr Brown that enough is enough - and good luck to them. I work in local government and I can tell you that it's no place for shirkers any more. In fact, quite the reverse as fewer people are employed but the government set stupid targets which makes more work. Furthermre, local authorities are now managed by people who want to please Whitehall rather than the communities they are supposed to serve - tick-box tactics. Like many of my colleagues, council workers have not enjoyed the same level of pay rises as other areas of the public service because conveniently, we arn't vote winners like the health service and teachers. But now we've had enough. And anyone who thinks that there's no stummach for a fight, just look at the ballot results in my area - over 83% in favour of a strike, and I'm one of them.
Without public service workers we'd all be in deep trouble-theyre vital and do j obs none of the rest of us will do-there should never be any need for them to threaten to go on strike because they should be given the wage they so richly deserve-if Brown doesnt do this then he deserves all the trouble that will ensue.
Rather than waste yet more money on public sector pay than NuLab already has done, why not let them go on strike? Then see whom we miss, pay htem a bit more and get rid of the rest. Problem solved.