What's next?
Worried faces around Whitehall tonight as they await the results of the scientific tests on the latest foot and mouth outbreak. One insider tells me that there are two possibilities - both of which are pretty alarming.
If this turns out to be the same strain as the outbreak last month then it may mean that ministers have to tear up the rulebook which they've been following. This stated that the disease could not have survived and spread more than a fortnight after it was declared eradicated. Also, it will suggest that Whitehall's much praised plan for controlling the outbreak did not, after all, work.
If, on the other hand, it's a different strain then the whole exercise of identifying the source and worrying about how to limit its spread will begin again.
Hillary Benn's now had to deal with floods, foot and mouth and then foot and mouth again. Plague of frogs anyone?
I'm 
Comments
I think you are searching for the word 'Jonah' to describe this government
Another ministry about to be declared "Not fit for purpose"?
Actually does anyone have any suggestions for which ministry is the most fit for purpose and why? Or if you prefer, just to be totally unbiased, the converse?
On the accusations that the previous movement ban was lifted too early, I am asked to believe either D. Cameron, BA (Oxon) in Politics, Philosophy and Economics, who says it was, or John Fishwick, MA (Cantab) presumably in Veterinary Science, VetMB, DCHP, MRCVS, Senior Lecturer in Dairy Herd Medicine at the Royal Veterinary College and previously vet to one of the world's largest dairy companies, who has just said on News 24 that it wasn't.
A difficult choice.
If it is the same strain and it is a 'big' if - then the Government will have some serious questions to answer... With the Unions threatening to cause mischief, particularly their recent support of a referendum on the EU Treaty, this is the last thing Brown needs. This has the potential to do him some serious damage if not handled properly...
Was Hillary Ben responsible for the slashing of budget cuts to protect against flooding? If so then he has failed not just once, or twice but thrice! Time out, can we have some experts please!!
Okay, can we take a small breath to allow some actual science through here.
This is from your own ´óÏó´«Ã½ website and is very well known amongst the scientists:
• The virus can survive in soil for up to 28 days
• It can also survive in water for up to 50 days
• Foot-and-mouth can also linger in hay and straw for up to 20 weeks
• It could be a new strain of the virus, but experts say this is unlikely
Nick, you should know by now that something like this is a science matter. Don't repeat the ignorant ramblings of some idiot in Whitehall, it won't make it feel any better, and is completely irrelevant.
These things would be a lot better handled if the politics were kept right out of it.
It is like the old Eggs fiasco. You see what the papers and TV over looked at the time, while they were so busy defending the poor little egg industry, was that Edwina Curry was actually right, and was simply quoting what the scientists had proved conclusively. That is what happens when you try and find something political in something that is just science.
The big question is how does this affect the chances of G Brown being able to call an October election?
I'm not going to buy into the alarm and hysteria. Clearly, there is some amount of uncertainty and people are worried about the possible impact but there's no need to get carried away. Hilary Benn has been a little soft in the past but he seems to be taking a workmanlike attitude to this issue. This shift from windy idealist to pragmatic number crunching suggests he's got a sound grip.
If the best technical minds and communicators are deployed to sound out the science and keep everyone in the loop, without undue pressure or pestering, the problem will solve itself or not, depending. Mere speculation and shouting from the tops of mountains won't add or take away from this. Mistakes may be made but there's no need to be unreasonable. People have to learn somehow and things like this provide that necessary opportunity. The experience will prove invaluable if and when a real crisis emerges. Then, instead of acting like a deer in headlights, ministers, organisations, and individuals will be better equipped to deal with it more easily.
If I have a gripe with people is that they like to present an unalloyed front of perfection, demand perfection, and are incredibly intolerant, impatient, and hypocritical about reality. And I'm not just counting the usual hardline suspects. The self-styled tree huggers are just as bad. Again, sound critical thinking, good communication, and personal maturity are helpful. I may be wrong but I suspect a touch of Gordon Brown is lurking at the back of this. This is good if for no other reason than Hilary Benn's more annoying faults are being fixed.
Perhaps if the government hadn't been so smug about claiming to eradicate foot and mouth the first time, they wouldn't have such a problem with the media second time around?
"Worried faces around Whitehall..." Don't forget Nick that their worries are minor compared with those of Britain's farmers. This is the key part of the year when farmers do most of their buying and selling of stock. I hear that preliminary tests indicate that this is the same strain of virus that put livestock farming in limbo last month.
It's all very well Gordon Brown doing his statesmanlike thing in front of the TV cameras. The critical thing is that the non repair of the leaking pipe at Pirbright happened under the watch of this government - let's not forget that.
I am not a farmer but am concerned that once again the Labour government are weeping crocodile tears about our farming. Will heads roll over the matter of the leaking pipe? Don't put any money on it.
Nick,
There is a third possibility, another leak from Pirbright.
It's strange your 'insider' failed to mention that option. I wonder why?
This foot and mouth virus has got "Tory spin" written all over it.
It should be quite obvious to anyone that it is nothing more than the workings of the Tory propoganda machine.
Once again, they've been up to their old tricks stirring hatred against our government.
Nick,
Why no mention of the link to the government if this is the Pirbright strain? Have you forgotten that the release of the disease at Pirbright was the fault (at least in part) of the government who had persistently failed to fund reasonable investment and repairs at the site?
If it is the same strain, then can we have the same degree of scrutiny applied to Gordon and his henchmen that the last Conservative government received following Variant CJD?
It is the case that people will lose their livelihoods through this, and we will all probably face even higher food prices once the various extra costs etc work through the system.
By all means let us have a plague - as long as it is a plague on the government rather than the ordinary voters, especially those that never voted for this crowd in the first place.
The chances of the previous outbreak causing zero cross contamination at contiguous and regional sites was a ‘fingers crossed policy’; I do not claim that it was incorrect to adopt such a policy, after the correct process of an immediate cull all that is left is a ‘wait and see’ policy, the Government proceeded on the best scientific advice. The time for the incubation of the virus to display a spread is 2 – 14 days, having waited a full 30 days from the disinfection of the site the veterinary advice both at home and in Europe was that it was correct to lift restrictions.
Had the Government kept the restrictions from the previous outbreak in force they would have suffered attacks from farmers, the CBI and the under pressure politicians from the minor political parties; it would be best if politicians and the media waited for the scientific facts rather than making generic statements challenging the processes to date and trying to achieve some political advantage from the trauma currently being suffered by the farming community.
Actually H Benn has not had to deal with much, he has had a job to do and these things have happened whilst he is in post. The people have had to deal with the floods, more floods, foot and mouth, and again, foot and mouth. He can walk away from the misery and discomfort which the incompetence of this government has contributed to over the past 11yrs. So lets have some reality here, this government has had an easy ride over the years from the press and media. We have a totally uncritical media on anything Brown does or does not do.
You do not have to be a scientist to conclude that there were 2 possibilities, there could only be 2 possibilities, it was either one or the other. Now we know which it is, they do not have to throw away the rule book, they just have to start all over again and not be so quick to pat themselves on the back. It is called working for a living. Agriculture, and that includes the countryside, play a big part in this countrys economics and we have an urban government who have treated it with distain.