Will he or won't he?
What did he mean by that? Is he preparing the way for an early election, simply keeping his options open or merely winding up his opponents - and, incidentally, the media?
Gordon Brown did nothing at all to damp down talk of an election (which you can watch here) - despite repeated opportunities to do so. What's more, he didn't merely repeat the formula that he was "getting on with the job" and that his "focus is on the work ahead". He went on to spell out what the choice at any election would be.
Thus, he has ensured that his first party conference as PM will be seen as a build up to the announcement of polling day. Thus, he has ensured that he will pay a political price if he chooses not to go for it. Thus, however, we still don't know what he'll do!
Here are the two likely scenarios and the reasons for them:
1. Election called next week:
• Labour has a good week, banks don't crash, animal diseases don't spread.
• Brown overshadows the start of the Tory party conference with a fever pitch of 'will he or won't he' speculation, before announcing on October 2nd that the country will vote on the 25th.
• His rationale is that the polls may never be better, David Cameron may never be weaker, the Tories will be denied the time they crave to spend millions in marginal seats. And Brown can say that the opposition parties, the polls and parts of the media demanded that he get his own mandate.
2. Election not called next week:
• Brown decides that he doesn't wish to risk becoming a Trivial Pursuit question - "Who was the shortest serving prime minister who did not die in office?" Answer - Gordon Brown with just 120 days in office (if he lost an election on October 25th). George Canning served only 119 having taken office in 1827, caught pneumonia and died.
• Ever the strategic player, Brown wants his spending review, Iraq troop announcement and health review in place before going to the polls and he fears that the polls might not survive the dark nights, a tricky EU summit on October 18th and more financial uncertainty.
• Brown still overshadows start of the Tory conference with a fever pitch of "will he or won't he" speculation, thus damaging his rivals' best opportunity for a re-launch.
• When no election is called the Labour party points out that Brown always said that he was "getting on with the job" and that his "focus is on the work ahead". They point also to the following comments last week by Alastair Darling on GMTV: "I think people know there is a new Government, they have got a new prime minister, but they want the Government to get on with the job we were elected to do. I do not get any sense that people inside Government or outside Government are anxious for a dash to the polls."
• Labour encourages people to write that Brown could have won but decided not to go to the polls in the national interest.
So, which will it be? Well, you may recall that I described talk of an early election as "tosh" some weeks back - a judgement which I don't regret. However, it isn't "tosh" any more and I'm getting nervous. As one of those close to the PM put it me, "I lie awake at night worrying that if we don't go now we'll miss our best chance". Gordon Brown has one helluva decision to make.
I'm 
Comments
I think he will go for the early election, since there are likely to be some nasty surprises over the horizon, some which GB himself is expecting.
I think a hung parliament is the likely scenario, since the Lib Dems have finally appeared to commit political suicide with their recent policy announcements.
A hung parliament might actually benefit the country, since as in Scotland, politicians will have to actually work together for a change.
Amid all the speculation about an election, there is one scenario which I am sure that both Messrs Brown and Cameron have considered.
If an election is called for October, Mr Cameron can make a commitment that there will be a referendum on the EU Treaty if the Conservatives form the next Government. This will prove popular with much of the press, and will help Conservative voters who might be wavering to decide to stick with them.
Mr Brown will be left with the choice of either having to refuse a referendum if Labour win, in which case he will lose votes; or if he promises a referendum, the likelihood of losing the referendum straight after winning the election.
So the choice may not be as easy as it appears?
You made a good call, Nick, even if the Prime Minister does call a snap election. My personal focus is hearing the Prime Minister's keynote speech, and seeing how the left wing take his conference changes, and how Iraq develops with General Petraeus. My gut feeling is the Prime Minister will deliver a credible and far reaching speech, and these other issues will unfold positively. While a snap election is a possibility, I'm more open to the General Election coming later down the line and cementing the emerging pact between Labour and the British people.
One clue to unravelling the Prime Minister's character of fire and ice is his attitude towards Robert Mugabe. This spontaneous strike is typical of a man like Gordon Brown. It suggests he's deeply considered the issues and is sincere but he can get annoyed and be totally ruthless when pressed. I'm pretty sure any General Election campaign will be extremely well executed and could come at any time. The planning and guessing merely keeps the troops in a state of readiness. Indeed, I see no gap between governing and campaigning. It's a seamless whole.
I've made comparisons with Ieyasu Tokugawa, Gaius Julius Caesar, and Steve Jobs. These types of people tend to have precise and far reaching visions, and have a natural affinity with crowds. If things continue in a positive and constructive fashion people like that tend to be in power until they fall off their perch. Some people fear the "one party state" that's emerging but I can't see this is a bad thing if government, authorities, and people are in tune. As long as Gordon Brown continues to deliver for the nation, he will retain the .
I wouldn't be surprised if the polls go above 50%.
Trouble is, Brown's poll ratings are based on his huge leads over the Tories in Scotland, Wales and the north of England where he doesn't need to do well. Brown is behind the Tories everywhere else, and spectacularly so in the south. Even in Scotland, he is a long way behind the SNP.
Calling an election now will reduce his majority at best, and at worst could gift Cameron a surprise victory.
He'll got for it.
Just wait and see.
As my old father used to say, 'He's a politician to the hind legs of his back teeth...'
Add up the 'for' and 'against' column and you can only arrive at one conclusion.
General Election, Oct. 25th - Labour Victory. Increased majority.
New 5 year term for PM Gordon Brown.
Ming for the Old People's Home.
David back on the fags.
Tony wiping the sand out of his eyes.
With not much else to discuss, perhaps it isn't surprising that election fever has taken hold of editorial conferences. By chance those speculations help to keep political opponents tantalised. So whilst an early election is unlikely, allowing this media enigma to continue helps the Labour government.
Iraq and afghanistan have put me off voting labour for life. NOTHING they can do will change that.
Sadly the debate is only about what is in the politicos' best interests (that includes you gents of the 4th estate), not the public's. Please would someone tell them we want decent government, and a a full term, not an endless series of pre- and post-election bickering, with all the waste of time, money and energy that comes with it.
Interesting analysis Nick, but you've missed a HUGE negative point. The Tories might be unpopular at the moment, but the real power for Labour lies in the seats they currently hold in Scotland and Wales. The nationalist parties are doing well - the SNP will take a large number of seats in Scotland at the expense of Labour. Let's face it, the Scottish Labour party is in trouble. Similarly, Plaid Cymru are doing well in Wales, and that will have an impact on Labour support there. In both devolved adminstrations, Labour aren't doing well.
If Brown goes to the polls - he looks set to lose quite a few seats in Scotland and Wales, which will reduce his majority in the Commons. Perhaps the Tories are in the duldrums a bit now, but most Tory voters, as much as they possibly dislike Cameron's direction will stick with him rather than see the possibility of a 4th Labour term.
The Lib Dems will lose seats at the expense of the Tories in the South/South East. Labour's record on agriculture is now being examined more carefully which may have an impact on the South West - particularly, as Lib Dem policies on green measures will hit those areas the hardest.
The referendum on the EU Treaty will also be something in the Tories favour as well. The press is likely to be more favourable to this position.
Brown positioning himself against Mugabe is an empty threat. He won't send in troops to depose him - he wouldn't dare, so it's just a bit of nice sabre rattling. In reality, Brown has been very lucky that the Northern Rock problem was quickly resovled, had it not, then really the electoral map would look very different now.
He may call and win an election, but at what cost? This might be the last time Brown could call himself Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Especially in Scotland...
Nick
A question rather than a comment. Do you think the media could have questioned the PM harder about his silence during the week-long Northen Rock crisis? After all he has hardly been out of the papers since taking charge with comments on every possible news story from the major to the trivial. I even read comments from him regarding Mourinho leaving Chelsea this week. Was this a case of "nothing to do with me guv" from the PM?
It is complete rubbish an October election, a favourite feature is Labour’s job site. I note they have not put a close by date on their latest postings! As a cynic I would say they have done this so they are not rumbled as to their manipulation of the media.
Obviously these jobs are pretty important to get a political parties message out.
I have checked the down loads and there are no further dates advised. Think of an average person needing to give notice and shift from job to job – this does not allow for it!
This will backfire on Brown as he has initiated the speculation be in no doubt of that!
Its pure politics, this is the best time. I doubt Labour will win over a Hundred seat Majority more in the 70 or early 80s. If I was Gordon Brown I would go now, we all recall what happened in 1978 when the then Labour Prime Minister did not go, a year later Lady Thatcher won. Good way to start, Conference speech and the last line " I am off to the Palace to to ask for a dissolution as to go to the Country for a fresh term "
who cares ?
NICK
Told you when you posted 7 weeks back that the really important matter was the Downing Street cat, or lack of one.
Alistair Darling's Chancellorship has solved that burning issue!
Practical tip-see where the opinion polls are after Mr Cameron's conference. Mr Brown's native caution will deduct 2 pts from his party's standing & add 2 to Mr Cameron's.
If that mathematical exercise still leaves the PM around 4 points clear or more, expect an election in 3 weeks or so. Don't forget, opinion polls comw with a +/- error rate health warning, anyway!
Also, Nick, that cat looks the sort of woman who will ensure good government in Downing Street-could just be the clincher!
It might be worth pondering on the response of Her Majesty to the request he would have to make that she dissolve Parliament.
He has a working majority. As no-one stood against him, he has the support of his party. It is barely two years since the last dissolution and the unwritten constitution provides for a Parliament to last up to 5 years.
On what convincing basis would he ask for, and she grant, a dissolution? It is within living memory that our gracious Queen declined to grant a political expedient, isn't it Mr Whitlam?
To what extent will he take into consideration
Jim Callaghan's failure to call an election in 1978 ?
That led onto the Winter of Discontent and Thatcher's
election. You could argue he'd have won an autumn
election or at least not lost nearly as bad as he did.
I think that GB has two options: or he calls a snap poll this Autumn (25th October or early November) or he only calls one at the end of his term, in 2010. I believe that he is going to call one this Autumn as it is less risky for him (the oppostion will become stronger and the economy might get worse).
What can happen? In my view as the traditional Conservative voters and other unhappy voters will support parties like BNP and UKIP, those parties will end up with a seat (or even more than one) in the House of Commons with a hung parliament or a slim Labour majority. However, if Cameron manages to bring back those voters and even persuades some of the undecided voters to vote for him (a less likely situation at the moment), then we might end up with a Conservative government. Of course, it is also possible for Labour to increase its own majority but I find that difficult, as everyone will look back and assess Labour's performance in areas such as education, crime and NHS, which wasn't good at all.
I think that GB has two options: or he calls a snap poll this Autumn (25th October or early November) or he only calls one at the end of his term, in 2010. I believe that he is going to call one this Autumn as it is less risky for him (the oppostion will become stronger and the economy might get worse).
What can happen? In my view as the traditional Conservative voters and other unhappy voters will support parties like BNP and UKIP, those parties will end up with a seat (or even more than one) in the House of Commons with a hung parliament or a slim Labour majority. However, if Cameron manages to bring back those voters and even persuades some of the undecided voters to vote for him (a less likely situation at the moment), then we might end up with a Conservative government. Of course, it is also possible for Labour to increase its own majority but I find that difficult, as everyone will look back and assess Labour's performance in areas such as education, crime and NHS, which wasn't good at all.
Who really, actually gives a fig tree if Brown calls an election tomorrow, next week or next month? Can the media please start investigating and exposing real political and governmental stories instead of spinning one out of thin air? If I were GB I would be intentionally cryptic and guarded just to wind up the media. Not only that, but whilst you lot are jibbering on about a snap election, the government is getting away with blue murder, with waste and corruption at every level of government. For Christ's sake, get your finger out and start reporting actual *news*.
A major problem with all this is that the election fever, intentionally and artificially created and supported by the media, is once again crowding out actual issues.
The media time and time again ask why politics has slipped so far down the voters "to do" list, and yet keep going on with this sort of absolute rubbish - the very stuff that bores voters silly.
And Brown, if he is playing this game, is no better.
As both voters and paymasters, we have a right to have clear information. Politicians do not, in my opinion, have the right to play games with their opponents on our time.
And the media, who like to see its self as the voice of the people, does not have the right to just report based on its own agenda just because it is fun.
When any election comes, I want it worked out carefully in advance. I do not want surprises. I want all parties to have fair warning so each can have their say and so I can make a reasonably considered choice.
I think as a voter and a tax payer that is my right.
Not that anyone cares, I suspect.
Nick, There are other sinister forces at work in the economy - the key to any electoral success.
There is a little muttering already about a potential 5p on a litre of petrol which puts it hovering on the £1 a litre milestone.
However this week we have seen 20p rise on 2 Litres of milk and in the last two weeks 8p on a 800g loaf of bread, with another 6p rise due on the 23/10/2007.
It often takes 2 weeks before the consumer identifies such price rises in essential foods. Food inflation of over 10% could become the housewifes electoral issue. The Price of corn has seen the downfall of many a government.
Well Nick, it matters not whether Brown calls an election early, and it matters not whether Labour win. Democracy is a joke, a sick joke, both Labour and Tory are two cheeks of the same arse controlled by corporate string pullers.
The Country is slowly and steadily coming to realise that fact and indeed the fact that correspondents such as you are continually feeding the populace contrived bull which your political masters allow you to spew forth.
Mind you, if you happened to mention the whole system is corrupt and a big lie you wouldn't have a job - so carry on sir.
Charlie H.
Nick,
firstly I'd like to congratulate Andrew Marr for actually asking and pressing Brown on a number of issues this morning. The PM looked distinctly uncomfortable at the persistent but fair questioning. If only the "other" channel would do the same.
I think a general election soon is a possibility (especially with CE Hartwidge sounding as shrill as a groupee at a Justin Timberlake concert - Ed Balls is that you?)but I'm not convinced that Labour have the money to fight one at the moment.
Brown saying he will not attend the EU African conference as a protest against Mugabe is pathetic. A true leader would confront the man and make it clear to the other African leaders as to exactly where this country stands. Instead no sign of the elusive PM - Macavity anyone?
I think that GB has two options: or he calls a snap poll this Autumn (25th October or early November) or he only calls one at the end of his term, in 2010. I believe that he is going to call one this Autumn as it is less risky for him (the oppostion will become stronger and the economy might get worse).
What can happen? In my view as the traditional Conservative voters and other unhappy voters will support parties like BNP and UKIP, those parties will end up with a seat (or even more than one) in the House of Commons with a hung parliament or a slim Labour majority. However, if Cameron manages to bring back those voters and even persuades some of the undecided voters to vote for him (a less likely situation at the moment), then we might end up with a Conservative government. Of course, it is also possible for Labour to increase its own majority but I find that difficult, as everyone will look back and assess Labour's performance in areas such as education, crime and NHS, which wasn't good at all.
Well Nick, it matters not whether Brown calls an election early, and it matters not whether Labour win. Democracy is a joke, a sick joke, both Labour and Tory are two cheeks of the same arse controlled by corporate string pullers.
The Country is slowly and steadily coming to realise that fact and indeed the fact that correspondents such as you are continually feeding the populace contrived bull which your political masters allow you to spew forth.
Mind you, if you happened to mention the whole system is corrupt and a big lie you wouldn't have a job - so carry on sir.
Charlie H.
#3: "the emerging pact between Labour and the British people"
Erm, back in the real world...
Best reason for an october 25 election is that Brown can tell his european colleagues at the EU summit on october 18 he cant possibly sign away british sovereignty the week before a general election- can he?
Whichever date Mr Brown chooses, the very fact that he denies us a say on the EU Constitution compels us to turn the general election into a referendum.
The Northern Wreck has disappeared below the horizon but it isn't dead yet. There is a huge mortgage book that has to be sold on and the grief hasn't yet started. I suspect overoptimistic valuations and salary inflation will show that the assets are not nearly as secure as everyone is assuming; and the Government is hoping.
Growth next year is already being forecast lower in the region of 1% so we could have some interesting times.
Now if we actually get a reduced majority how will the Scottish and Welsh vote stand up? Will Labour still be able to rely on Scottish MP's to vote on English issues or will our Scottish PM find a problem on his hands.
Gordon never wielded the knife with Tony, will he cut and run on an election?
So many well educated people talking so much nonsense!
Where does the tipping point come in these stories? Who first decided that there MIGHT possibly be an Autumn election this year? Who then copied that story in their own column and who then copied that?
In any case it is nonsense and fails to take into account the following:
Brown has waited in the wings to follow Blair for many years and expresses some kind of mission to set Britain back on the right footing.
Brown will NOT call an election this Autumn: he will not call it next Spring either. Unless something goes Brown will be seeing out this parliament as far as possible.
This is simple psychology and rationality. After all, if you were him, what would you?
One indication of a tipping point came in the Andrew Marr interview yesterday when Marr asked a question that Brown was keen to respond to in full. However, since Brown wasn't giving the response that Marr wanted Marr said, 'We're getting nowhere with this ...'Good for Brown that he persisted and answered the question in full. But Marr's resction is ssymptomatic of the kind of journalism we are suffering from now.
The other issue these days is the journalist who when someone attempts to respond to the questions they put to them will cut them off before they have finished. Bad manners and bad for the listener who may not be as well informed as the journalist and who might not fully understand what has happened to made the journalist cut the question.
I'm listening to the Today interview with Brown at the moment and the interviewer is, in my opinion, grossly ineffective because she is being so adversarial and rude. He is the Prime Minister if nothing else: he deserves some respect for that alone. I realise you may not agree with that latter point so you don't need to respond to that one!
Finally, when will we see the tipping point to stop asking this nonsense question? PLEASE let it be soon.
Duncan
If he goes now its because he knows there is some economic horror lurking. Basically there is no justification for an election now. He has a more than workable majority, he has been the most senior member in the government over the last ten years, and there has been nothing he has been able to influence, so by controlling the purse strings he has in effect been the government.
No if he goes we should be very worried indeed as to the motive
If he goes now its because he knows there is some economic horror lurking. Basically there is no justification for an election now. He has a more than workable majority, he has been the most senior member in the government over the last ten years, and there has been nothing he has been able to influence, so by controlling the purse strings he has in effect been the government.
No if he goes we should be very worried indeed as to the motive
It's a no brainer. He will win any election called in the next month.
It'll be an early election.
The local labour MPs in my area have crawled out from under whatever stone it was they were lurking under and keep popping up in the local media. They're normally conspicuous through their absence.
I don't think he will for an instant - much as I would love him to be imortalised in trivial persuit.
To be part of this process on it own would be motivation enough for most of the british public to vote against him.
He is keeping this story as a smokescreen to divert journalists from asking difficult questions - and they have gone for it hook, line and sinker.
If anyone later reproaches him for being misleading he will just reiterate that he said nothing one way or the other.
By taking not only the other parties policies, but their people too - he hopes (over time) to leave us with noone else to vote for. Politicians who value power over principal will flock to him for their quick fix of power, leaving us in a single party state.
Hi Nick. In my opinion, this does not look like if he, would he, and all of the media SPECULATIONS.
Brown will not hold an election now, because he has work to do and a MANDATE for another 3 years.
The man is a workoholic and is the right person to continue to eradicate our so called social traditions and extreme conservatism, which kept us socially backwards when compared to the Continent.
Nick, as for steve *7* I say, GET REAL MAN, the Tories would have gone in earlier, and on their own! Have a nice day Nick.
In Gordon Brown's & Jack Straw's 'The Governance of Britain' paper (chapter 1 sections 34-36) they propose that the Prime Minister would "seek the approval of the House of Commons before asking the monarch for a dissolution" of parliament.
It would be interesting if in the next few weeks Gordon Brown calls a general election, but does not consult parliament on it's disolution as the paper states that: "this will, through precedent, become a constitutional convention." So no legeslative change is apparently needed.
Maybe that's a question Nick would ask the Prime Minister if he can't get an answer on the date of an election?
I know the political force might be there, but is the financial? After all the cash for honours rubish, can Labour afford to go to the polls?
You should also add problems with foot and mouth plus the new virus hitting the UK to the list of reasons why Brown won't call an election this week. It could be really damaging for him if he ignores it or fails to stop the political fallout from it.
In the real world i.e. the rest of the planet outside the Westminster bubble - Who the hell cares what "holy Gordon" decides to do ????
In Gordon Brown's & Jack Straw's 'The Governance of Britain' paper (chapter 1 sections 34-36) they propose that the Prime Minister would "seek the approval of the House of Commons before asking the monarch for a dissolution" of parliament.
It would be interesting if in the next few weeks Gordon Brown calls a general election, but does not consult parliament on it's disolution as the paper states that: "this will, through precedent, become a constitutional convention." So no legeslative change is apparently needed.
Maybe that's a question Nick would ask the Prime Minister if he can't get an answer on the date of an election?
The problem is that none of this speculation gets us anywhere. He doesn't know what he's going to do yet. We don't know what he's going to do. When he's ready to announce something, he will. Until then, maybe we should talk about something else!
In Gordon Brown's & Jack Straw's 'The Governance of Britain' paper (chapter 1 sections 34-36) they propose that the Prime Minister would "seek the approval of the House of Commons before asking the monarch for a dissolution" of parliament.
It would be interesting if in the next few weeks Gordon Brown calls a general election, but does not consult parliament on it's disolution as the paper states that: "this will, through precedent, become a constitutional convention." So no legeslative change is apparently needed.
Maybe that's a question Nick would ask the Prime Minister if he can't get an answer on the date of an election?
Labour will certainly get a drubbing in Scotland and whenever the election is called there is a strong possibility both Brown and Darling will loose their own seats.
Jon, #4:
In the current climate, Labour will not lose Scotland to the SNP in a Westminster election. We know that the more SNP seats there are, the greater chance there is of a Tory government.
Ironically, that's exactly what a certain Mr Salmond wants - if the Tories get in, the old debate of not having a mandate to govern Scotland will rear its head again, hence allowing him to drum up support for independence and a chance to command an "independence majority" (SNP, SSP, Greens etc.) in 2011.
Gordon Brown ruled out an early poll on the Today programme this morning, by saying that he didn't need a new mandate and was getting on with delivering Labour's manifesto.
Nick - why is the ´óÏó´«Ã½ not running with this as its main story right now - "PM rules out early poll" - instead of continuing to generate speculation?
With the economic outlook turning bleaker particularly in the housing market, I think Brown will be sorely tempted to call an election. The problem that I see with his poll lead is that it is apparently based on Tories who have switched camp. If that's the case an election campaign against the backdrop of the signing of the EU Constitution/Treaty is highly likely to drive them straight back to the Tories.
As for Charles Hardwidge (#3) and his "mandate from heaven" are you delusional? Look what happened to the Tories when they decided they governed by divine right. It is very unhealthy.
I still think the real question is :
Since they so clearly cannot say what will happen, why is pointless speculation on what Brown might or might not do taking up so much space in all the media - my suspicion is it's far easier to generate gossip and rumour than actually do any work finding and clearly reporting actual events.....
I still refuse to believe that a Labour Party led by figures whose seats are largely in Scotland would call a snap election just when the old stronghold and refuge is most open to attack by the SNP.
Since Thatcher, the underlying bulk of any really solid Labour majority is provided by Scottish votes. There is as far as I know no clear indication of how a Scotland still in the first flush of a relatively upbeat SNP minority government will vote in a general election. The SNP right now have a higher profile and a better platform for attack on Labour than they have ever had. They could potentially be the key actors in bringing about a hung parliament, thereby giving back to Cameron and Campbell the intitivate and room for manouevre which Gordon has been so keen to deny them.
Labour's election strategists are Scots. Surely they will wait to see if the winter brings an SNP gaffe or blunder to tarnish their reputation?
With not much else to discuss, perhaps it isn't surprising that election fever has taken hold of editorial conferences. By chance those speculations help to keep political opponents tantalised. So whilst an early election is unlikely, allowing this media enigma to continue helps the Labour government.
Why should the Scots, who now effectively have their own Government, care less who is in charge at Westminster?
Because of this, I suspect that in a so-called 'General Election', the turnout in Scotland will slump.
The English people are such fools for putting up with this political situation and the Scottish professional politicians at Westminster know it full well.
When will the English ever wake up from their political torpor?
PS. I think that 'Hen Broon' will see out the next three years. This grotesque 'democracy' should have a fixed term of office, a variable term gives the incumbent an unfair advantage.
Nick
All this speculation, and the range of comments here, proves is that we should have fixed term for parliament so politicians of any party can't manipulate the electoral system for their own advantage. 4 years seems appropriate we never seem to get beyond this time between elections.
How about asking GB directly whether he will do this?
Nick,
Mr Brown has just said he will not let us down.
Given his record, I think the correct response should be
Too late mate you already have
If Gordon Brown was to call an election things would change during the run up to the big vote.
I have noticed gaffs and other mistakes costing or winning an election and no one, not even yourself can know what they may be till they happen.
I do not think he has to call an election anyway as a change of leader doesn't change all the people who elected their own MP and that MP is maybe halfway through his work in that area only to be taken away for another parade of kisses and handshakes. If we elected a party we want to give them their time to do what we elected them to do and that time is 4-5 years. We all knew about Brown too and that is an extra reason we voted for Labour.
I think this is more media driven then anything because the journalists yearn for an election to get overtime payment and enjoy themselves!
I don't think there will be any announcements until at least a week after the Tory conference when the polls have 'settled down'.
Sue Law is quite right, the hysteria is largely self serving, and media and Tory run.
The only good reason for an election now is that the Tories will do so badly and are not in a position to do anything other than put Hague right back where he was a few years back, with a party probably even more split over a wider range of issues.
It is time that the various polls on the elctorate's desires re election timing were standardised. The differing result, if the polls are honestly carried out, suggest different questions are being asked.
I am beginnig to wonder if Gordon Brown might not be wisest to actively ignore the media and Tory Party cholera re the election by making one final statemnt to the effect that he will never speak publicly on the subject again until he has called at Buckingham Palace. In 2009.
Perhaps he takes that as read?
Then this fox would only run in the thoughts of the mendacious, the avaricious and in the nightmares of certain Conservative politicians.
I doubt that GB will go for an election for the following reasons:
(1)I suspect that the real reason he has dug his heels in over the EU referendum issue is some kind of commitment given to Blair. It seems an amazing coincidence that the EU summit that created this issue was just before Blair stood down leaving GB with an obligation to deliver the treaty.
Blair probably has an understanding that if he delivers the Treaty, he will become the EU new Foreign Minister equivalent
All this hype of an election completely overshadows the EU treaty issue.n It has hardly ben in the press for the last two or three weeks
(2) GB is dependant on the Scottish MP's to keep his majority in Parliament. They are likely to fare very badly in an election.
(3) In the South of the country, GB cannot fel very safe.
(4)There is , I think, a very real risk of some bad economic news arriving during an election campaign - ??a housing collapse?
(5) Labour has more to risk from poor weather than the Tories. Their vote will probably hold up - the real question is, can they increase it? Brown's supporters are much more fickle.
(6) All the reasons for actuslly "going for it" are negative - bad news on the way, the opinion polls may not hold up, the EU referendum issue, military action in Iran by the USA/Israel, maybe some leaks re Cherie Blair's forthcoming book...., looming union strikes in the public sector
Personally I doubt it. If he does go for it, it will probably be because the economy is in a far worse state than anybody actully realises.
With some 60 plus Labour MP's in Scotland and since the last General election there has been an SNP takeover in Scotland I cannot amagine that Labour will retain many of those seats after a General election this Autumn. In fact Gordon might even lose his own seat!
With some 60 plus Labour MP's in Scotland and since the last General election there has been an SNP takeover in Scotland I cannot amagine that Labour will retain many of those seats after a General election this Autumn. In fact Gordon might even lose his own seat!
Unconvincing, can´t see this being a speech that will make much of a dint in Labour´s leads in the polls.
Of course it was lapped up by the usual misfits that attend the Tory conference. Can´t those who run the party hire in some normal looking people?
The Old Etonian convinces no-one when he pitches himself as the man to protect pensioners, to reinvigorate the manufacturing industry (dismantled and sold off by Thatcher) or bring about real changes to the NHS. Same old cliches and platitudes but the loudest cheer seemed to come when he talked about veto-ing the European Constitution.
One of the most important announcements in the news this week was the raising of the national minimum wage. A policy that was fought tooth and nail by Cameron, Hague and co at the time and that says more than anything about the core values of this party.
Unscripted-so what. Uninspired more like.
Is Mr Loaring looking for a bookmaker?
Is he one of the fish awaiting their quietus in the tory barrel, whsitling madly away?
What a great week - we've seen the first signs that the wheels are about to come off the Brown bandwagon! The press are beginning to turn on him and his vacillating has only added to the general malaise with the economy seemingly set to go into a downturn (I can't wait for the spin that Alistair Darling puts on his revised growth forecasts next week). Far from being prudent, Brown has presided over the introduction and a plethora of stealth taxes whilst frittering away a sound economic legacy! So much for a man of supposedly towering intellect! And if his courage deserts him and he fails to call the election, it should come as no surprise to anyone when, with crises mounting all around, our very own Macavity isn't there!
What a week in politics - we've seen the first signs that the wheels are about to come off the Brown bandwagon! The press are beginning to turn on him and his vacillating has only added to the general malaise with the economy ominously poised to go into a downturn (I can't wait for the spin that Alistair Darling puts on his revised growth forecasts next week). Far from being prudent, Brown has presided over the introduction and a plethora of stealth taxes whilst frittering away a sound economic legacy! So much for a man of supposedly towering intellect! And if his courage deserts him and he fails to call the election, it should come as no surprise to anyone when, with crises mounting all around, our very own Macavity isn't there!