Have I got news for you?
The Tories are beginning to believe that Boris has beaten Ken in London. Indeed, the Tory supporting (though unofficial) website has actually . This even though no votes have been counted yet and none will be until tomorrow.
The key to their optimism, I believe, is the staggering turnout in outer London where resentment of Mayor Ken in the commuting classes runs at staggering levels. I'm told that the turnout in Bexley and Bromley may be higher than at the general election - in the 60s.
One note of caution, however. Turnout in Ken-loving inner London is high too - it's around 47%, I'm told, in Hackney.
The key to the result will be who was more motivated to vote - Ken haters or Boris fearers. My guess, the haters may just have it.
NB. If you're just joining me, you might be interested in this brief guide to what I'm looking out for tonight.
Comment number 1.
At 1st May 2008, ajbrown141 wrote:Ken has been absolutely lousy for London so I strongly suspect Boris will win. He's run a serious and excellent campaign talking about the issues which Londoners really care about, whilst Ken has looked increasingly out of touch with the voters.
A lot of inner London also dislikes Ken so I doubt high turnout there will be able to save him from the likely pro-Boris suburbs.
My prediction - Boris wins with around 53% of the vote.
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Comment number 2.
At 1st May 2008, L A Odicean wrote:If Boris has won we shall at least be spared the sight of Ken Livingstone fawning all over President Chavez again. And Ken will be able to go to Cuba again and visit his other Socialist hero, Fidel Castro, without spending taxpayers money to do so.
Why he should be pals with the two leaders most to blame for giving Socialism a bad name is beyond me.
Boris will be a disaster, more than likely.
But at least he gives the impression of being a disaster that you can trust.
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Comment number 3.
At 1st May 2008, Joe Lewis wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 4.
At 1st May 2008, MartinR wrote:I'm not predicting any results for London but this is what I saw today when out covering Ken's polling day
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Comment number 5.
At 1st May 2008, YorkshireVoter wrote:Nick, looking forward to the evening, as always, but already annoyed by the tabloid style of Jeremy Vine and his trivialization of toadys events. We don't need this childish and patronizing way of explaining tonight's results.
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Comment number 6.
At 1st May 2008, nebubub wrote:Hmm. memories of the networks declaration of Al Gore as US president in 2000....wait until they're counted! 2nd preferences can change everything....
Matt
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Comment number 7.
At 1st May 2008, U11769947 wrote:Nick,i think tonights results will not be about the winners and losers,i will have my eyes focused on the turn out,a low turn out will be a disaster for all politicians,i fear that apathy will win the night....
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Comment number 8.
At 1st May 2008, martynleeds wrote:hull results in - some lib dem gains
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Comment number 9.
At 1st May 2008, nebubub wrote:Lab are not doing well in Derby. Have just lost one of the central wards to Lib Dems by only 100 votes.
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Comment number 10.
At 1st May 2008, Joe Lewis wrote:Nick - why do you feel the need to dilute political jounalism so much that it should appeal to readers who would normally go straight to the television listings? "Ken-haters", "Boris-haters" - has it really come to this on the ´óÏó´«Ã½?
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Comment number 11.
At 2nd May 2008, Shirleygirl wrote:I do hope that the ´óÏó´«Ã½ will not be concentrating on the London Mayoral election all night.
The results won't be known until tomorrow, so why not debate it fully then?
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Comment number 12.
At 2nd May 2008, Bendict_O wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 13.
At 2nd May 2008, Bendict_O wrote:Nick,
Ken Livingstone is an impressive politician and a great leader for London. As an architect and teacher I have really been impressed with the mayor's eforts for sustainability and intelligent urbanism as London continues to grow. Ken has contributed much to a great Renaissance for inspired architecture and growth, consistent, in-line with the labour's vision for healthy cities. Total commitment to public transport, cycling and affordable housing, we have much to thank Ken's administration for. Lets hope for four more years, consolidating these inspired strides for the capital city. A great adminsitration.
Well done Ken.
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Comment number 14.
At 2nd May 2008, patricia81 wrote:What on Earth is Jeremy Vine doing prancing about with his cartoon characters?
The bit on the ten o'clock news was bad enough so I can't stand another minute of Election Night Special. We expect intelligent reporting from the ´óÏó´«Ã½, not this rubbish. Talking about 'Ken haters' doesn't help. We just want to know the results and have some serious political comment and analysis without all the snide comments and attempts at entertainment.
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Comment number 15.
At 2nd May 2008, MartinR wrote:Seriously Nick, what the hell are these graphics about? The ascent of man? Brown's portrait gallery?
The people who watch the 8 o'clock news 'strand' are now all safely all in bed so why the Fisherprice /Tomy coverage?
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Comment number 16.
At 2nd May 2008, U11769947 wrote:the lib dems are switching to tories,and the public have not turned out,it's got to be the main issue"POOR TURN OUT"
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Comment number 17.
At 2nd May 2008, MartinR wrote:Why does Culshaw think Boris sounds like Ken Dodd? And why is Emily asking his opinion on political issues?
The questions are just terribly lame setups for some pretty poor impressions, hardly what one expects of the ´óÏó´«Ã½. Or certainly didn't used to be...
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Comment number 18.
At 2nd May 2008, MartinR wrote:And just when you thought Vine couldn't sink to a lower depth we get a dreadful comedy 'western' voice.
Seriously the man has absolutely no shame.
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Comment number 19.
At 2nd May 2008, mrcynict4 wrote:Mr. Brown and his condotteori keep banging on about "listening". Well listen to this result and GO before this country is totally wrecked.
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Comment number 20.
At 2nd May 2008, j3cub65 wrote:Leadership is about inspiring others to follow, something Brown has always lacked.
He is so far out of his depth as prime minister that it is embarrassing to watch.
The local election results are the public's verdict on the most inept period of government the nation has ever seen.
Here is your opportunity David Cammeron to show the public what good leadership looks like.
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Comment number 21.
At 2nd May 2008, wotsittodowithyou wrote:Quite simply if the fate of London is to be decided by people that need the ballot paper translated for them I begin to question the sanity of it all. How can so much reliance be placed on individuals with no command of the English language, what exactly are they voting for?................not going there, point made!
I am not a betting man but I can almost predict which Boroughs will vote for Ken.
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