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Budget 2011 analysis

Nick Robinson | 12:50 UK time, Wednesday, 23 March 2011

Re-fuelling the economy?

George Osborne

The chancellor begins with a promise to help families with the cost of fuel. Duty is clearly coming down and by more than scrapping this year's penny on top of inflation. The Budget surprise may be how far he goes and how he pays for it.

There was no surprise in the economic forecasts, though, beyond the claim that slower growth this year creates "scope" for higher growth later, which generated some hollow laughter in the Commons.

No surprise either that George Osborne said: "Britain has a plan and we are sticking to it."

Update 13:01: A tax cut, a tax rise and the vision thing

Another 1% off corporation tax - on top of the 1% previously announced - that's the headline pledge for business.

The overnight story of a personal tax cut for individuals will, though, be outweighed for some by an important and dull sounding technical change - upgrading many tax allowances by the CPI measure of inflation rather than RPI is a tax increase. In other words, the tax free amount will be increased less than it would have been for ISAs, Capital Gains Tax, and employee national insurance contributions.

The vision the chancellor outlined is a simpler, fairer tax system and private sector job creation in the regions instead of what he dubbed a "debt fuelled economy".

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    You couldn't imagine Gordon Brown being so pro-business could you? Well done, more like this in future years please!

  • Comment number 2.

    "bigins" ???

    It doesn't matter how much he brings fuel duty down by it wont be enough. It's like taking cough medicine for a chronic illness; might make you feel a bit better temporarily, but doesn't solve the problem and you'll only end up taking more and more which will inevitably lead to other problems in the long term. (Not that he'll be generous enough to reduce the duty a second time).

    What he should be doing it investing money in a long term energy/fuel security plan for the UK, so that when things start to get really bad (and they will) we have a way out. He's just too gutless, like the rest of them in Westminster.

  • Comment number 3.

    the Flash Gordon Debt fuelled economy will last for decades to come.

  • Comment number 4.

    Watching George Osborne's performance in real time - on my giant plasma - I'm struck by the fact that, contrary to my previous theories, he doesn't appear to be particularly enjoying his moment. Seems even to be struggling a little, just wanting to get it over and done with. Very odd, with this being Budget Day and with him being Chancellor of the Exchequer. Is he in the right job, I'm wondering now?

  • Comment number 5.

    Best budget heard in 14 years, well done to the coalition government. Budgets like this really put to shame the incompetent previous chancellor Brown and Darling and make Balls look like an idiot.
    A budget that encourages businesses large, medium and small, whilst helping get rid of a myriad of tax laws and legislation introduced by labour to keep jobsworths in employment at the taxpayers expense.

  • Comment number 6.

    Tell you who is in the right job, though (4). At least for now until he becomes Prime Minister in eighteen months or so. Initials same as our new syntax for doing italics - Ed Miliband. Excellent performance in reply - really really good. Wrong frere as Labour leader? No, it would appear not. Had the sense I was watching a game-changer there. The game may have changed.

  • Comment number 7.

    1. I really don't like £250m going to first-time house buyers, which is a policy not seen since the early 80s. Build more affordable housing maybe, stop selling off affordable housing definitely.

    2. No more proof is needed that Osborne is out of touch with his repetition of 'we're all in this together'

    3. Growth down: a blatant failure for any chancellor

    4. 21 Enterprise Zones: possibly a good idea, but where and when?

    5. APD on pause. The UK pays way more than anywhere else just to leave the country. It's sky high already and should have been reduced. A missed opportunity.

    6. What about corporate tax dodgers? What about private tax dodgers? What about George Osborne's tax dodging? Why is this man in charge of our economy?

    7. Debt will be falling as a percentage of GDP one year early. Great, so long as the numbers look good it doesn't matter that people are losing their jobs and getting poorer. Too much, too fast.

  • Comment number 8.

    1p cut in fuel better than an increase, but to be honest but the saving of around 50p/week is hardly going to 'ease the squeeze' on most households with fuel prices at the pump having gone up at a greater rate than crude by the barrell for the last two years. When are the oil companies profits announced? Will the Chancellor bring in some kind of 'reality regulation' to protect the consumer as he has tried to do with the banks?

  • Comment number 9.

    Paul Krugman blog 21 March 2011:

    "But in retrospect, it’s quite clear: Lucas and Sargent declared final victory over all things Keynesian in the 1970s, and the closed minds of their followers were such that they didn’t even notice the revival of Keynesianism that took place over the three decades that followed. And Brad is right: if you’ve reached the point where you don’t pay attention to anything that might disturb your orthodoxy, you’re not doing science, you’re not even pursuing a discipline. All you’re doing is perpetuating a smug, closed-minded sect."

  • Comment number 10.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • Comment number 11.

    I don't know what speech Nick was watching, but Milliband DID mention fuel. He said that whilst there was a 1p reduction in fuel duty this was was swallowed up by the 3% fuel VAT increase.

    Bad commenting there Nick!

  • Comment number 12.

    Sagamix @ 4
    Watch it again (you recorded it, right?) but this time focus on Cameron. Look at his mouth, his lips. You'll have to get close to the screen because his lips are so thin they almost aren't there. But I swear he's mouthing the phrase 'fluff it, fluff it' over and over to himself. Some kind of Eton hoodoo, I bet. Only snaps out of it when George sits back down and he has to give him the customary pat on the shoulder.

  • Comment number 13.

    4. At 13:34pm on 23rd Mar 2011, sagamix wrote:"he doesn't appear to be particularly enjoying his moment"....., "Is he in the right job, I'm wondering now?"

    Ha, ha, ha, sagamix is a class act ....., none of this Snooty 'low brow' stuff from him!

  • Comment number 14.

    Forgive me for being blunt but im not sure what the chancellor meant about the flexi Tax on fuel please can you put it in to plane english for those of us who are not very well educated

  • Comment number 15.

    Interesting directions to take, but as ever, the devil will be in the detail... REd's speech though, jesus christ, he was terrible, even Postie was better last year than that, that was utterly pitiful.... isnt it normally meant to be the Shadow Chancellor who responds? Did they not want to let Blinky off the leash for some obscure reason?

  • Comment number 16.

    6. At 13:52pm on 23rd Mar 2011, sagamix wrote: "Tell you who is in the right job ......, Ed Miliband." Ha, ha , ha, OK my mistake Saga isn't such a sophisticated spinner.

  • Comment number 17.

    All sounded good. Reduced taxes and regulations for businesses. Increased personal allowances for the lower paid. Reduction on fuel bills. Help for us in the South West who pay the highest water bills is very welcome and we have never been helped in all the years Labour was in power. Not an easy budget for Osborne as it had to be fiscally neutral due to the mess labour made of the economy. Well done to the coalition government

  • Comment number 18.

    Not bad George. You won't win any awards for charisma, but who cares? It's the content of the speech that matters, not its delivery.

    Very pleased that tax and NI will be merged - a policy that's about forty years overdue IMHO. Next step to merge in-work benefits into tax allowances.

    Also very pleased that there will be no alcohol duty increase. No need to rush to the supermarket tonight :-D



  • Comment number 19.

    #15 The shadow chancellor responds the next day, the shadow leader always responds to the chancellor on budget day. Meaning that Osborne got let off rather lightly with Miliband

  • Comment number 20.

    6#

    Well, if you think that the pre-requisite skill for a leader of Her Majesty's "loyal" opposition/The Parliamentary Labour party is to be a barely intelligible fratricidal trustafarian, who can just about sew half a dozen hackneyed soundbites together in the absence of an alternative policy, yeah, I guess the cream definitely rose to the top in this case, didnt it?

  • Comment number 21.

    Jesoal @ 16

    "OK my mistake, Saga isn't such a sophisticated spinner."

    :-)

    Have to get down & dirty sometimes, J. All very well knocking the Tories but if I don't do the occasional pro-Labour comment I get accused of being Mr Negative. A sort of reverse Saunders, if you can imagine such a thing.

    And continuing in positive vein, Harriet Harman looked quite on the ball sat there today, I must say.

  • Comment number 22.

    Red @ 19

    I wouldn't say Miliband let him off lightly. Wasn't kidding when I posted that I thought EM did well. I do - think he did well. He did well, Miliband did. Did well.

  • Comment number 23.

    PD @ 12

    Yes I did, and I have, and you're quite right. How odd. Odd thing to be muttering, I mean - 'Fluff it. Fluff it. Oh fluff it!' - when your Chancellor is on his hinds giving it his best shot on Budget Day. Or was it actually a slightly different phrase? - as he listened to news about the latest piece of 'Mad Dog'' Libyan truculence through his ear piece - well no, since he didn't appear to be wearing an ear piece.

  • Comment number 24.

    Fubar @ 20

    But you're irredeemably prejudiced, aren't you? You'd slag off Miliband - indeed any and every Labour politician - even if they delivered a 'Gettysburg Address' of a speech.

  • Comment number 25.

    22#

    Denis Healey's "Savaged by a dead sheep" quote springs to mind....

  • Comment number 26.

    But what sort of mind? ... if that springs to it.

  • Comment number 27.

    Saga @6 & 22 cc F_S
    Missed ED M's reply at the time but on your recommendation found a recording. Have to agree he did well. Some passion and animation there, but that could just have been in comparison to George's somewhat lacklustre performance. Mind you, given the material George had to work with... Growth revised down repeatedly as against my budget for growth. Not much choice really. Having lashed himself to the mainmast he must survive the storm or go down with the ship. Perhaps that's why he looked so down in the mouth.
    Can only imagine that F_S was watching another version of what happened. A re-enactment of Ed M's reply by the rockRobin theatre company?

  • Comment number 28.

    #22 I agree he did better than usual, but I'd like to see more of the incisive attacks that pick apart hypocritical policies which I think Balls would be better at

  • Comment number 29.

    Has Danny Alexander, written this mean Budget? The same Danny Alexander who agreed 20% Value Added Tax on top of all government fuel duties?

    Why not? MPs and Ministers can claim back all their transport costs, food bills, rent, mortgage, repairs, communications, utilities from the tax-payer.

    I mean, what's 20% VAT on mostly everything for you, MPs or Ministers, when it's PAID for you by the people who can't claim back any of the above as you do - whether you need to or not?

    Yes, back to what MPs and Ministers still get away with on their allowances and expenses. ~Any complaints about that still live and unresolved issue buried under deficit job cuts, banking bonuses and yet another war? Go to TheyWorkForYou.com and find out what your MP is doing, voting, earning, and claiming as a basic start.

  • Comment number 30.

    IDB @ 27

    Yes, a version of events relayed through a special 'tory TV' transmitter. I can just about believe that.

    Red @ 28

    Well I guess we'll get Balls in due course. EB, for me, hasn't quite lived up to his advance billing as yet. He looks very confident - body language and stuff - but I'm waiting for the promised verbal fireworks. Here's hoping.

  • Comment number 31.

    27. At 16:27pm on 23rd Mar 2011, Idont Believeit wrote:
    Saga @6 & 22 cc F_S
    Missed ED M's reply at the time but on your recommendation found a recording. Have to agree he did well

    ---------------------

    Yes, he was brilliant! He made points like:-

    The wrong type of snow
    It's hurting but it isn't working
    Too deep too fast
    Snooze button
    Nobody voted for the deficit reduction plan brought in by the coalition (Hilarious!)

    Oh, and he made some banal class reference about George going skiing.


    All griping stuff and highly informative to the electorate!

    He didn’t actually say what he would do though...still, he was playing to his audience...and you obviously liked it??

  • Comment number 32.

    JB @ 31

    Well it was, for me, a better-than-average 'Opposition leader response in House of Commons to a Chancellor's budget' performance. Not an economics masterclass or anything like, but a decent piece of politics nonetheless.

  • Comment number 33.

    I am not getting involved in the parochial politics that seem to be the "raison d'etre" of this blog. Many of you on here give the impression that you are women/men of political substance and understanding. On that basis I would welcome your advice on the following issue:

    Tomorrow I am going to meet with the parents of a particularly able and gifted sixth former has obtained a place to read Physics at Cambridge. Unfortunately, both parents have been made redundant from their jobs, and their house will be repossessed in two months. The parents are going to tell me that it is not possible for their son to take up this opportunity! As they are on the brink of financial collapse. The boy has convinced himself that at this stage he is better off stacking shelves in a supermarket and helping support his parents and his younger brother (who is probably even more able than his elder brother).

    How will 1p off petrol help? Or support for first time buyers help? There is some concern for NEETS in government policy, but for my pupil there is nothing. There is nothing I or the school can do to change the minds of these good people.

    If anyone should respond to this note, please do not blame one party or another; instead you Women and Men of great wit offer me some advice or insight so that I might see this outstanding student go to University.

    I have tried the Willett approach: "you don't have to pay for it till you earn £21k" it does not help this family whose only debt was their mortgage and they defaulted on that. If you some positive suggestions I would be delighted to read them. I have contacted a number of educational trusts but this problem is not "in their remit"

  • Comment number 34.

    sagamix @32

    "Not an economics masterclass or anything like, but a decent piece of politics nonetheless"


    I agree, but opportunistic politics isn't helping anybody. The country desperately needs to rebalance the economy and regain control over its finances. It doesn't need an opportunist like Miliband confusing the electorate into thinking that there are meaningful alternatives to the coalition's policies. And, it certainly doesn't need someone taking us back 30-40 years with divisive ‘classist’ propaganda. The last thing we need now is a return to ‘Them and Us’. Or do you disagree saga?

  • Comment number 35.

    John Bull @ 34

    Them and Us? No, too binary for my taste. Class is very relevant to politics, however, and it shouldn't be taboo to discuss it. I myself am not overly Marxist - although some powerful insights there – but I am on record (if that’s not too grave a term for this Blog) as thinking it’s a poor reflection of Britain today that we’ve reverted to rule by a narrow and socially ultra-privileged elite.

    And ‘no alternative’ to the Coalition’s policies? ... come on! There have to be substantial public spending cuts, yes, but the life-of-Parliament difference between Labour’s £70 billion and Osborne’s £110 billion isn’t exactly chicken feed. Not to mention stuff like compulsive (and not mandated) fiddling around with the NHS.

  • Comment number 36.

    sagamix @35

    "Them and Us? No, too binary for my taste. Class is very relevant to politics, however, and it shouldn't be taboo to discuss it."


    No single thing did more damage to Britain's economy than 'Them and Us'. It's one thing to intellectualise this in abstract, it's quite another to see businesses ruined and people loose their jobs as a result of it. However, I agree it should not be taboo. Labour tried that with immigration and it backfired somewhat.

    On Cuts, I said ‘meaningful alternatives’. We're talking about a cumulative difference of 40Bn over 4 years. As a percentage of total government spending over that period, that equates to an additional @1.5% of cuts. It’s not much more than chicken feed is it?

  • Comment number 37.

    Yes but who did the damage, John? Was it them? Or was it us?

    Re the difference: if you express as a % of total government spend then the whole of the Coalition's cuts are small beer, never mind just the excess over Labour's. Which is why this is misleading. Like if I cut your finger off, as opposed to your hand, both are as nothing compared to your total body mass - I'm assuming - but there's nevertheless quite a difference, and a very real one, as far as you're concerned.

    And economic growth, remember, is the big one; get motoring again and we'll soon be making fiscal inroads. Otherwise we really won't - we'll struggle terribly.

  • Comment number 38.

    "3. At 13:26pm on 23rd Mar 2011, IR35_SURVIVOR wrote:
    the Flash Gordon Debt fuelled economy will last for decades to come."

    People like you are like a broken record. It's all Labours fault blah blah blah.

    Here are some facts.

    1) The Economy was in growth as a direct result of their budget.
    2) Borrowing was going down (Osborne has had to borrow 45 billion more)
    3) The fuel cut is ain effect a 2p rise
    4) This is NOT pro-business as the majority of business's in this country are small ones. This is pro-BIG business aka Tory Party donors.
    5) One entrepeneur leabing Ireland (which he was about to anyway) does not make up for companies like Pfiesser leaving.

    Red Ed was right. This was "Norman Lamont with an i-pad!"

  • Comment number 39.

    31. At 18:05pm on 23rd Mar 2011, John_Bull wrote:


    Yes, he was brilliant! He made points like:-

    The wrong type of snow
    It's hurting but it isn't working
    Too deep too fast
    Snooze button
    Nobody voted for the deficit reduction plan brought in by the coalition (Hilarious!)

    Oh, and he made some banal class reference about George going skiing.


    All griping stuff and highly informative to the electorate!

    He didn’t actually say what he would do though...still, he was playing to his audience...and you obviously liked it??
    ----------------------------------------------------------------

    I hate Tories because they are evil, that much is obvious but I don't like Labour either, but Ed Millibands performance from a Neutral point of view was Barnstorming.

    The Tory policy is NOT working. All Pain No Gain!!

    Osborne is clueless.

  • Comment number 40.

    "34. At 19:10pm on 23rd Mar 2011, John_Bull wrote:



    I agree, but opportunistic politics isn't helping anybody. The country desperately needs to rebalance the economy and regain control over its finances. It doesn't need an opportunist like Miliband confusing the electorate into thinking that there are meaningful alternatives to the coalition's policies. And, it certainly doesn't need someone taking us back 30-40 years with divisive ‘classist’ propaganda. The last thing we need now is a return to ‘Them and Us’. Or do you disagree saga?"

    Isn't this exactly what Cameron did to get into power? Jump on every bandwagon and promis everything to everyone and delivered nothing?

  • Comment number 41.

    18. At 14:29pm on 23rd Mar 2011, Mincepie Murderer wrote:
    Not bad George. You won't win any awards for charisma, but who cares? It's the content of the speech that matters, not its delivery.

    Very pleased that tax and NI will be merged - a policy that's about forty years overdue IMHO. Next step to merge in-work benefits into tax allowances.

    Also very pleased that there will be no alcohol duty increase. No need to rush to the supermarket tonight :-D
    -------------------------------------------------

    I guess some people just don't listen.

    There is an alcohol duty increase.

    Gideon definitely foooled you. :P

  • Comment number 42.

    1. At 13:12pm on 23rd Mar 2011, Jesoal_Kotarohe wrote:
    You couldn't imagine Gordon Brown being so pro-business could you? Well done, more like this in future years please!
    ---------------------------------------------------

    Actually that was Brown's problem and he lost his grass roots support. Too pro-business and too pro-banks!!

  • Comment number 43.

    4. At 13:34pm on 23rd Mar 2011, sagamix wrote:
    Watching George Osborne's performance in real time - on my giant plasma - I'm struck by the fact that, contrary to my previous theories, he doesn't appear to be particularly enjoying his moment. Seems even to be struggling a little, just wanting to get it over and done with. Very odd, with this being Budget Day and with him being Chancellor of the Exchequer. Is he in the right job, I'm wondering now?

    --------------------------------------------------------

    Maybe because he realises his own limitations? :P

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