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Archives for April 2010

What the smaller parties are promising

Richard Moss | 16:47 UK time, Friday, 30 April 2010

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Votes being countedDon't say I never do anything for you. As promised a brief guide to some of the more regionally relevant policies of the smaller parties at this election.

It's just a small selection, and, of course, as with all political pledges, it's worth looking at the full manifesto to see if there are details of how some of these policies would be paid for.

:

- Establish local community banks.
- Reopen the post offices that have been shut.
- Encourage local live arts performances by moving funding from the regional to the local level.
- Phase out nuclear power, and get 50% of energy from renewable sources. Stop any new coal-fired stations.
- Scrap the roadbuilding programme and spend the money on public transport.
- Stop airport expansion, and support a new north-south high speed rail line.
- Provide more allotments.

:

- Spend £3.5bn over 25 years to build new nuclear power stations so they provide up to half our energy.
- Support plans for British-mined coal and oppose onshore windfarms.
- Embark on a £30bn 10-year programme of building new flood and sea defences.
- Establish directly elected police and health boards, and support directly-elected mayors.
- Invest in three new 200mph high speed rail lines including one from London to Newcastle.
- Reopen other local rail lines where needed.


- Oppose foreign ownership of nuclear power stations.
- Ban all further windfarms, and look to spend £300m to reopen some deep coal mines.
- Abolish the regional development agencies.
- Introduce a "local connection test" for anyone applying for council housing.
- Dual the A1 and A69 with the aim of eventually making them three-lane motorways.

And one final one that I couldn't resist. The Monster Raving Loony Party say they'll sell Northern Rock and buy Blackpool Rock. Boo-boom.

It's the economy debate, stupid

Richard Moss | 13:32 UK time, Friday, 30 April 2010

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Wallet with coinsWe're following the example of the third Prime Ministerial debate by focusing the attention on jobs and the economy for our last pre-election programme.

Once again we're going to be bringing the voters face-to-face with the politicians to try and get answers.

And although there are other issues that have been crucial in this campaign - expenses, immigration - you still suspect a lot of people will be voting for who they think might be better for their wallet, and job prospects.

Before the Recession, Labour could point to some real progress in the region's economy.

Unemployment had fallen significantly, and there were some impressive examples of regeneration.

Manufacturing had continued in a decline that began in the 1980s, but it seemed the service sector could easily take up the slack.

Not all of that has unravelled, but the economic downturn has reversed some of the progress.

The jobless rate is now up to where it was before Labour took power in 1997.

There's the persistence of the North-South divide.

And the region has suffered big job losses at high profile employers like Northern Rock, Nissan and Corus.

The future may also be difficult.

There is investment going in to secure new jobs producing electric cars at Nissan and offshore wind turbines on the Tyne.

But the region's dependence on public sector jobs could make it more vulnerable than other parts of the country to government cuts.

And the future of the regional development agencies is also uncertain.

Labour would definitely keep them, the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives say they could remain in a reduced form if any region decides it still wants one.

But it's unclear how big the agencies' budgets would be under any of the parties.

We have a number of voters then who want to press our politicians.

Amongst them the unemployed, business owners worried about the future, and union officials concerned about public sector cuts.

The panel is Iain Wright for Labour, James Wharton for the Conservatives and Carol Woods for the Liberal Democrats.

The Debates are over, so what next?

Richard Moss | 11:59 UK time, Friday, 30 April 2010

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The three main party leaders in the final Prime Ministerial debateMy third Prime Ministerial debate experience was a somewhat different one last night.

I watched it alongside some Newcastle University students in one of the Union bars.

It made a change from watching it at home with a TV dinner and a grumpy cat (she only likes cartoons).

It did occur to me that instead of watching three politicians, these students should surely have been carousing and canoodling somewhere. (I gather that's what a lot of young people do these days).

But then they were Politics undergraduates, so pretty hardcore.

And they were incredibly attentive and silent at the start, with only Gordon Brown's acknowledgement that he doesn't get everything right producing a ripple of laughter.

There was the odd groan as Nick Clegg rolled out some of his greatest hits from the previous two encounters - my favourite was his attempt to score political points by accusing Cameron and Brown of political point scoring.

But as time went on, their attention started to drift as they concentrated more on coversing with their neighbours than the cut and thrust of debate about corporation tax and regional development agencies.

Newcastle students watching the debateI must confess I also began to slip into debate fatigue towards the end as well, but we all stuck it out to the end.

Opinion on the winner was divided, but few seemed to think it had changed their minds.

And so with less than a week to go where are we in the contest on our region?

The Lib Dem poll surge and Labour slide have given us more potential contests than I anticipated three weeks ago.

and were the top two Lib Dem targets, but to that you can now add , , , and even , where the party is now really pushing hard.

The problem though is resources. The surge has even taken the Lib Dems by surprise.

For that reason, it's a bit late to divert huge effort into a seat like , even though a poll this week suggested it could be winnable.

But the bonus is that seats that looked very vulnerable in , and now look more secure.

For the Conservatives, the main targets remain largely unchanged. , , and are still must wins.

They are pushing hard in and too, hoping to take advantage of Labour's problems.

And given yesterday's A1 announcement, they are yet to have raised the white flag in .

As for Labour, they are now fighting on more fronts than they would have originally anticipated, and at a time when resources are tight.

Defence is often harder than attack and their candidates probably face the toughest last week.

But it really is difficult to read exactly what's happening on the ground.

The Prime Ministerial debates have undoubtedly had a big influence.

But the impact of local factors - the Corus closure, rows over schools, the student vote - are harder to read.

Does Conservative A1 pledge bring upgrade closer?

Richard Moss | 17:16 UK time, Thursday, 29 April 2010

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Conservative activists by the A1"Tories pledge to dual A1" was the Newcastle Journal headline, but does the Conservative announcement it referred to really mean an upgrade is certain if they win power?

No - is the answer. There are still plenty more hurdles ahead.

It may make it easier to upgrade the A1 from Newcastle to Scotland, but there's no guarantee we'll see it converted to dual carriageway any time soon.

What the Shadow Transport Secretary announced today was a plan to reclassify the A1 north of Newcastle as a road of national significance.

At the moment it doesn't have that status.

That means any funding for improvements have to come from the regional North East roads budget.

The estimated £400m bill would swallow that budget whole, leaving nothing for any other parts of the region.

For that reason, the upgrade just hasn't happened.

The Tories then would bring it back into the national roads programme, with its much bigger budget.

So there will then potentially be more chance to access the funds needed, but just how much of a chance?

Theresa Villiers admitted she couldn't make any promises.

Any plan to dual the A1 would still have to compete against other road projects up and down the country.

It would also be competing at a time when money is likely to be incredibly tight.

There is absolutely no guarantee the change will make it happen any sooner.

Labour and the Liberal Democrats have been keen to point that out.

Labour say the Conservatives are making promises they can't afford.

And at the Look North debate on Tuesday, North East minister Nick Brown said he thought the solution was a combination of regional and national funds.

He also pointed out that the Conservatives pledged to upgrade the A1 in 1992, but it never happened.

The Lib Dems though do agree the A1 should be classed as a road of national significance.

But they insist Nick Clegg is the leader who's the most committed to making an upgrade happen (despite a manifesto commitment to cutting £3bn from the roads budget).

In reality none of the parties have a concrete manifesto commitment to dual the A1. None of them have set aside specific funds to do it.

So whoever wins the election, we're unlikely to see a wholesale upgrade imminently. More likely are incremental improvements over many years.

But to be fair at least it has now been put on the election agenda.

How to reach voters without actually meeting them

Richard Moss | 10:25 UK time, Thursday, 29 April 2010

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Gordon Brown meets Gillian DuffyThe question all politicians mull over is how do you reach as many voters as possible?

Talking to them directly sounded a good tactic - well !

Tweeting could work - but how do you gather enough followers?

Television appearances can be good - but not if the interviewer asks the questions you'd rather not answer.

But there's also another medium I've just discovered online.

It's called l, and our political candidates are being invited to .

This is something the ´óÏó´«Ã½ did consider doing for this election.

They were going to be called minute manifestos.

But because of our need to be fair and comprehensive we were going to have to get videos of every candidate in every constituency.

So even though we liked the idea, the logistical nightmare of chasing up every candidate and checking their posting just proved too complicated.

Winkball though are not bound by such concerns. Instead it's down to the politicians to decide whether they want to use it or not.

.

Now it would be stretching a point to say they're visual feasts - many seem to have their backs to the wall - or occasionally a hedge (I'm talking literally rather than metaphorically).

We're also not talking slick delivery, so don't go there if you want memorable soundbites.

But it is unmediated, unedited and definitively their message, so you can get some idea of who you might be voting for.

There are some interesting moments too. Greens battling with the force of the wind on the microphone and their leaflets seems strangely apt.

One UKIP candidate in our patch appears with her two dogs in a tunnel and in a rather distracting and unusual manner.

Indeed judging by the numbers on there it seems the smaller parties are particularly keen on it. Understandably given they do get less airtime and column inches in the conventional media.

But it's not all people you may never have heard of.

William Hague is on there, in handheld mobile phone quality.

And there is some interactivity as you can send the candidate a message.

I don't think it's a gamechanger, and probably not a replacement for doorknocking at this stage, but it's intriguing and more evidence of the growing importance of the web in wooing people.

After Bigotgate, it might just a safer way for some politicians to talk to the voters!

No worms in our election debate

Richard Moss | 14:06 UK time, Wednesday, 28 April 2010

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There was no Spin Alley, no polling and no worms, so I can't tell you who came out on top in last night's Look North election debate.

But I can tell you we did give a decent airing to the kind of regional issues that are unlikely to feature in this week's final Prime Ministerial debate.

The panel was quite civilised with Nick Brown, Sir Alan Beith and William Hague agreeing on some issues.

There were though discernible differences in their approaches to the economy, health, education and transport in the North East and Cumbria.

All seemed to accept public sector job cuts would happen, and that money would be tight in terms of investment in schools and roads in the future.

But whereas William Hague believed the government just needed to provide the right atmosphere to help the private sector grow, for Nick Brown and Alan Beith, government investment would play a bigger role in ensuring the economy continues its slow recovery.

When the discussion turned to the A1, nobody could promise to dual the whole length of the road straight away, but all said they hoped to do it in stages.

But while Nick Brown talked about using the roads budget that's devolved down to the region and matching it with Department for Transport funding, William Hague and Alan Beith said it should be a national priority funded by central government.

William Hague also promised an announcement connected with that in the next few days.

There were also clashes on the handling of the Corus job losses, the number of managers in the NHS and on where the priorities should be in our schools.

The smaller parties also got a say with the Greens saying they'd spend the roads budget on public transport, and tax the rich more to fund health and education.

UKIP talked about using public works to boost the economy, alongside withdrawing from the EU.

The BNP said immigration was to blame for congested roads and for inadequate standards in schools, with improved discipline also needed.

I'm not sure the debate was a gamechanger, but it gave people a chance to raise northern concerns with our politicians.

If you missed it you can still catch it on the ´óÏó´«Ã½ iPlayer for the next week.

Now it's time for the North's TV election debate

Richard Moss | 16:55 UK time, Monday, 26 April 2010

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TV camera in a studioApparently someone tells me TV debates are all the rage in this general election.

Timely then that we have our own Northern television shindig planned.

The Look North Election 2010 Debate airs tomorrow night on ´óÏó´«Ã½1 after the 10 O'Clock News.

Unlike the prime ministerial debates, there won't be 76 rules, but hopefully it'll get people talking just as much.

It's a Question Time-style format, with a 40-minute debate, although that does also include a short film setting out some of the issues affecting the North East and Cumbria.

Our main panel is for the Conservatives, for Labour, and for the Liberal Democrats.

We will also have representation from the smaller parties.

But the crucial people will be the voters. An audience of them will be posing the questions at our venue in Sunderland, and I'll be aiming to make sure the politicians answer.

´óÏó´«Ã½ Look North's presenter Carol Malia will introduce proceedings (apparently she's regarded as slightly more glamorous than me), and I will then chair the debate.

I must admit I'm really looking forward to it.

We do want to make this the chance for the region's voters to discuss what matters to them, so the issues we raise might not be the same ones that have dominated the national campaign.

And there'll be a lot at stake for the politicians too.

All the parties are now stepping up their efforts in a region which now has a growing number of really keen contests in it.

Watch it and let me know what you think.

Outside Broadcast in CumbriaWe got into some issues in the third of our Politics Show debates that have certainly not been at the centre of election campaigning.

Post office closures, affordable housing, public transport, and hunting all featured as we discussed rural affairs.

On the panel at Cliburn Village Hall in Cumbria were Rory Stewart for the Conservatives, Stan Collins for the Liberal Democrats and Michael Boaden for Labour.

Policies affecting the countryside don't often get much of an airing so it was good to focus on them for a change.

Certainly our panel of voters felt frustrated that their concerns had barely merited a mention in the Prime Ministerial debates.

The economy and jobs will dominate our discussions next Sunday. More of that later in the week.

Cameron puts North East at centre of campaign

Richard Moss | 15:05 UK time, Monday, 26 April 2010

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The catapulting of the North East into the centre of this general election was just one element of a frenzied and often surreal weekend of campaigning.

So firstly, what are we to make of David Cameron naming the region as one of the areas where the size of the public sector was "unsustainable"?

It was certainly a remark that was seized upon by his political opponents.

Within an hour of making the comments during , .

In it North East Minister Nick Brown weighed in: "The public sector is crucial to bringing new private sector jobs to the region.

"David Cameron's public spending cuts would set this back and crush all of our chances of securing a decent economic recovery. He didn't seem to care very much. What he is planning to do is very wrong."

The regional newspapers on Saturday also made unpleasant reading for the Tory hopes of winning seats here.

So there were always likely to be some tough questions to answer when the for his first visit to the region during the campaign.

And he was on the attack.

His opponents and the newspapers had "wilfully misinterpreted" his comments.

He said he was talking about getting the private sector to grow rather than savaging the public sector, and that the real damage to jobs would be done by Labour's National Insurance rise.

So who's right?

David Cameron certainly didn't mention cutting back the public sector in the North East in Friday's interview. He did mention the need to get the private sector to grow.

But the context of the discussion was about shrinking the size of the state.

And although the growth in the private sector is desirable, the public sector would have to stay as it is or more likely shrink in order for that "unsustainable" imbalance to shift.

I also suspect Conservative candidates weren't thanking their leader for Friday's namecheck of the North East.

It does though highlight a philosophical difference between Labour and the Conservatives.

Labour believe public sector investment can help to create and sustain private sector jobs, the Conservatives believe its more important for businesses to work in a a tax and enterprise regime they can thrive and create jobs in.

The reality though is that many voters I've spoken to believe all parties will have to cut public sector jobs after the election to balance the books - Labour included.

How that might affect the North East, we don't know.

We are more dependent on the public sector than other parts of the country so inevitably more vulnerable.

But a large slice of our public sector workers are based at the Government site in Longbenton.

Government offices at Longbenton in TynesideMany of those workers are not in so-called "back office" jobs but are dealing directly with people's taxes and benefits. They may not be in the front line of cutbacks.

The region could even benefit if more jobs are moved out of London to save money.

But all of this is uncertain because we simply don't have enough detail about what the parties will do after May 6.

Elsewhere, I thought Labour's campaigning was beginning to show signs of desperation and confusion.

Labour do need to see some upward lift in their poll rating soon, but I'm not sure Elvis is the answer.

And David Cameron certainly believes Labour is in deep trouble here.

In his press conference today .

Hence they now see and as likely victories.

But they are also targeting seats that were completely off the radar at the start of the campaign.

(Labour majority 16,000) has been mentioned.

Yet .

This is though a remarkably unpredictable campaign.

- and it's anyone's guess who might suffer most from that.

All bets are off at the moment.

The isolation and frustration of the rural voter

Richard Moss | 18:17 UK time, Friday, 23 April 2010

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The Lake District countrysideThere are several groups of voters who may prove crucial in this election - older people, younger people (registering supposedly in greater numbers), maybe women.

But there's one group which often complains about being ignored - the rural voter.

Our politicians know there's a greater concentration of votes and seats in our big cities, so campaigning does tend to be focused on our urban centres.

But of course our region has some of the most sparsely-populated constituencies in the country.

Penrith and the Border, Westmorland and Lonsdale, Berwick, Hexham, even the likes of Bishop Auckland.

And they often have just as many issues and problems as our inner city seats.

Post office closures have hit many villages - around 120 branches in the North East and Cumbria were closed in 2008.

The lack of affordable housing is a huge issue in the countryside with many young local people forced to move away.

Just 7% of young people were are able to access affordable housing in Allerdale in Cumbria, and 2% in the South Lakes.

Some of our rural communities are not as wealthy as they might appear either. There may be some well-heeled people, but average incomes are often much lower than in towns.

And with the drift away of young people comes the loss of services like schools, shops and public transport.

On top of that many of our villages have been resisting windfarm developments and of course rural Cumbria and Northumberland have been affected by flooding.

All issues we'll look at in the latest of our debates this Sunday.

We're coming live from a village hall in Cumbria with Conservative Rory Stewart, Labour's Jamie Reed and Lib Dem Stan Collins.

And a panel of voters who want answers about what the parties can offer our villages.

Slightly later start this week by the way. The London Marathon to blame - I hasten to add I'm not running. So kick off time for us is 2pm.

The day after the debate - Nick Clegg in Newcastle

Richard Moss | 16:00 UK time, Friday, 23 April 2010

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was back in the North East today for his second visit to the region in the 2010 campaign.

It was his first visit after last night's in Bristol.

When he was last here a fortnight ago, his party was hovering at 20% in the polls, and his two rivals were pretty much ignoring any Lib Dem threat.

Now he's been adjudged to have won at least one and possibly two TV debates, his party's polling 30% plus - ahead sometimes even of the Conservatives.

And with that progress comes intense media scrutiny.

I can remember times pre-election when I was the only TV reporter who bothered to turn up to his visits.

On today's visit to Newcastle he was surrounded by cameras and journalists.

He went to the Aviation Academy at Newcastle Airport to meet students.

I'm sure they'll hope we'll talk about his poll ratings "flying high".

But there was another issue to discuss.

Sky TV election debate c/o PA

During last night's debate he and the other leaders were asked what they'd done to become greener.

"Not enough," was Nick Clegg's answer.

And today he jetted in on an aircraft and jetted out on one. Curiously, the Lib Dem battle bus was sat outside the venue with its engine running too.

Not good for the environment, I suggested to him.

He admitted it wasn't ideal, but said the flights - all carbon offset - were essential to get him round the country.

Mind you at least he's visited the region.

So far two-and-a-half weeks in, we have not seen or in our patch.

The Conservative leader's most northerly stop in England has been Barrow-in-Furness, the Prime Minister's Leeds.

They are undoubtedly busy men, but apart from East Anglia, the North East is now the only region not to have had a visit from either of them.

It's certain the TV debates haven't helped, as the leaders have to take time out to prepare and appear in them.

It does probably reflect that there are fewer marginal constituencies here than in the South and Midlands.

But it leaves both parties vulnerable. The Conservatives might be seen to not care about the North, Labour could be accused of taking the area for granted.

There may be some visits planned soon, but I know that one Cameron visit was postponed because of the need to tackle the Lib Dem surge in the south.

Traffic on A1 c/o PA

We are though not short of Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet members.

David Willetts was in Carlisle today, and I caught up with David Miliband in Durham.

Nick Clegg's presence did allow me to question him on one policy area.

The Lib Dems want to cut billions from the roads budget, so where does that leave any plans to improve the A1 in Tyneside and Northumberland?

Mr Clegg insisted they would be improving the A1, and that wouldn't be affected by cutbacks.

Curiously though there is nothing in the manifesto either regionally or nationally promising action.

He'll have to expect more questions over specifics now as we get used to three-party politics.

That does look here to stay now after last night's debate.

It's turning into a terrifically exciting and unpredictable election.

Labour turns to Eddie Izzard in Durham election battle

Richard Moss | 17:45 UK time, Thursday, 22 April 2010

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We may not have seen the Prime Minister in the North East yet in this campaign, but we have had another of their big hitters here today - Eddie Izzard!

The comedian has been keen to lend a hand to Labour, and the party has been biting his hand off.

At a time when politicians are about as welcome as Icelandic volcanic ash, a popular celeb is a boon.

Eddie Izzard is also sincere in his support for Labour, and does hope to enter politics properly in a decade's time.

So he was duly despatched to Stockton South, Middlesbrough South, Durham and Newcastle.

I caught up with him in Durham, where he was one of two high profile Labour visitors.

The first to arrive - the Home Secretary Alan Johnson.

He attracted a fair bit of attention from passers-by but openly admitted to being the warm-up act.

And indeed the whole media scrum ramped up a notch when Eddie Izzard arrived.

He's box office certainly, but dabbling in politics does attract some risk.

He was tackled at one point by a voter who was far from keen on Gordon Brown.

But as a comedian, Mr Izzard is used to hecklers so he soon got back on track.

I did though ask him whether he might be better employed in Bristol helping the Prime Minister with his jokes ahead of tonight's second debate.

And also asked whether he might want to become an MP in our region when he does pursue full-time politics.

He insisted he wasn't depressed about Labour's poll ratings. Instead - like many in the party I suspect - he was more taken by the effect of the Lib Dem surge on Conservative chances of a Commons majority.

Alan Johnson was keener to knock the Lib Dems, who with their recent surge must now believe they can take the from Labour.

But away from the media melee I tracked down some of Nick Clegg's party in the neighbouring seat of .

Campaigning in Consett, they were looking to build on the surge they've seen in the last week.

They saw today's campaigning as evidence that they've got Labour rattled.

But of course all the parties are now waiting to see what impact will have.

They now know that however much campaigning goes on in the streets, the whole game can be changed by 90 minutes of TV.

The Labour group with a different agenda

Richard Moss | 07:52 UK time, Thursday, 22 April 2010

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British troops in AfghanistanHow would you fancy voting for a party which wanted to nationalise large parts of the economy, decriminalise drugs and immediately withdraw from Afghanistan?

It doesn't sound like the agenda of a mainstream party, and indeed it isn't.

But these are ideas being generated by a splinter group within the Labour party - a group which has the support of two of our local candidates.

The policies are included in something called the .

It's the brainchild of the (LRC), a group firmly on the left of the party.

It's led by John McDonnell, the Labour MP who tried to mount a challenge to Gordon Brown in the original leadership contest.

Amongst the proposals in the People's Agenda are:

- Wholesale nationalisation of vital industries - including the banks, public utilities, the railways and pharmaceutical companies.

- The phasing out of private landlord-owned properties accompanied by a new council house building programme.

- The abolition of prescription charges and the increase of most benefits.

- The possible decriminalisation of drugs, with addiction treated as a medical problem not a criminal one.

- Immediate withdrawal from Afghanistan, with the UK paying reparations to people there and in Iraq.

- The scrapping of student tuition fees.

The Agenda is clearly not Labour policy in any way.

Indeed, the group say they've published the Agenda to generate a debate about policies that aren't currently being discussed in what they call the "party political pantomime" campaign.

And of course they may well have half an eye on any post-election fight for Labour's future leadership and direction.

Ronnie CampbellThey are having a North East launch of the People's Agenda this weekend fronted by Ronnie Campbell, who's fighting to retain Blyth Valley for Labour. He's listed as one of the LRC's adopted candidates.

His opponents include Lib Dem Jeff Reid and Conservative Barry Flux. .

Also listed on the LRC website as a supporter is Ian Lavery - President of the NUM and the Labour candidate for Wansbeck.

He's standing there against Liberal Democrat councillor Simon Reed and Conservative party worker and businessman Campbell Storey. .

Now, I have no idea whether Ronnie Campbell and Ian Lavery are sympathetic to every policy listed in the People's Agenda.

Or indeed whether they've read every word of it.

Indeed there seems to be one section that definitely wouldn't meet their approval.

Because the two former miners, who both want to see new pits open, might want to take a close look at the section about the environment.

It talks about switching away from fossil fuels like...err... coal!

Gospels, wind and rail - the pitch for Northern votes

Richard Moss | 17:52 UK time, Tuesday, 20 April 2010

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The three main party leadersWith all the three main parties' national and regional manifestos now published, what are they offering that is distinctively northern?

, although large chunks talk about the party's record rather than what they'll offer if re-elected.

There are some specific local policy pitches though.

They are promising to relocate more civil service jobs from London to the region, although there are no specifics.

They will consider turning Northern Rock back into a Mutual, but that of course is not a promise, in fact it's only an "option".

They will though establish a "regional growth fund" to help the economy recover, and retain regional development agencies.

And they'll also invest £18.5m in the development of offshore wind test sites in the North East, and they say they'll ensure fast broadband access to every home.

Some of it stretches the truth a little though. The manifesto talks about Newcastle linking into a high speed rail line to London, via Leeds.

The only firm Labour plan for that high speed line is to build to Birmingham by 2026 at the earliest, Leeds may follow at an unspecified later date, and there are no plans for Newcastle to be actially on the line.

Instead the region would be linked to it via the existing East Coast line. And of course there are no plans for a line up the West Coast to stop in Cumbria.

On energy, Labour is committed to new nuclear power stations in Cumbria and Hartlepool.

One of the most eye-catching sections relates to a real bugbear in the North East - the Lindisfarne Gospels.

The manifesto says "The region's Labour MPs are committed to securing the return of the Lindisfarne Gospels to a permanent home in the North East."

Laudable of course, but before you get too excited there's still no concrete proposal yet to bring the Gospels back.

The Liberal Democrats also have a regional manifesto but a look at their website suggests a pro forma approach as every region's looks startlingly similar (compare and contrast those for the and ).

Wind turbines
There are some specifics though. They say they'd invest part of a £400 million fund to help ports in Teesside and Tyneside build offshore wind turbines.

And they say they'd hope to turn Northern Rock into a building society.

They'd also create Regional Stock Exchanges to help provide businesses with better sources of investment.

And they'd fund 140 extra police officers for the North East and put £175m into the region's schools.

The Liberal Democrats though would scrap any plans for new nuclear power stations.

And on transport there's only a vague commitment to improving road and rail links.

The Conservatives don't have a regional pitch, but there are some items of interest for our area in .

They're committed to increasing the private sector's share of the economy in the region. The North East's is currently the smallest in the country.

They also talk about bringing High Speed rail to the North East, but only in a second phase of development with no set timetable.

Regional development agencies would be replaced with "local enterprise partnerships" unless the area's councils decided that they still wanted an agency for the whole region.

On energy, communities who agree to have wind farms could be allowed to keep the business rates from them for six years. New nuclear power stations would be built as long as they didn't need a public subsidy.

Local people would be given the chance to bid to run any "community service" instead of the State, and directly-elected commissioners would replace police authorities.

I've still to study the smaller parties' manifestos in depth, so I'll come back to them in a later post.

Politics Show debate number two

Richard Moss | 07:23 UK time, Tuesday, 20 April 2010

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Outside Broadcast in StocktonThe second of our debates on Sunday tackled education, covering the likes of discipline, standards and the future funding of schools.

If you missed it, you can catch what the voters had to say to our panel of politicians on the ´óÏó´«Ã½ iPlayer.

But I was mightily impressed by our audience, which included parents and teachers.

Anna Wass, who was recently awarded the prize as the region's Oustanding New Teacher, was particularly keen to challenge the politicians.

But they all had interesting points to make, including questioning the value of SATs tests and asking about the high proportion of NEETs in the North East (that's young people who leave the education system only to end up without a job, or training place).

You may have noticed that I also had an opportunity to get my bag out again, something which always cheers me up.

A mysterious figure directs our Outside Broadcast from the ´óÏó´«Ã½ vanMy thanks to Hardwick Primary in Stockton for being our hosts. I did have one anxious moment though when my satnav took me to an empty field surrounded by houses.

It turned out that was the old site of the school. It was demolished and rebuilt nearby, so I soon tracked it down.

Our debates move to Cumbria next week, where we'll be looking at rural issues.

I prepare to go on air before the Outside BroadcastIt's good though to see the national ´óÏó´«Ã½ network paying the patch some attention too though.

Last week, I made it onto ´óÏó´«Ã½ Breakfast's Outside Broadcast in Middlesbrough to talk about the election, and onto the ´óÏó´«Ã½ News Channel with some students at the NUS Conference in Gateshead.

And is being co-presented from Newcastle until Wednesday.

So I got a chance speak to presenter James Naughtie on the programme in the Newcastle radio studios on Monday morning to outline what the current polls might mean in the region.

Next week the ´óÏó´«Ã½ Election bus will also arrive in Sunderland to assess the contest there.

Lib Dem surge threatens Tory hopes in North

Richard Moss | 11:08 UK time, Monday, 19 April 2010

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The three party leaders after the first TV debate has certainly breathed life into this election campaign, but what could a Liberal Democrat surge mean in our region?

If it's sustained, it would unquestionably lead to Nick Clegg's party winning seats here.

Assuming the current rise in support was reflected in all our constituencies, Labour would certainly lose the to them.

And they could also face a battle to hold onto seats in Newcastle and , a seat which was probably not in play before.

But it's possible that the surge might only translate into one or two gains from Labour.

In fact, as in other parts of the country, it's the Conservatives that would suffer the most.

The corresponding fall in the Tory poll rating could rob them of the chance to beat Labour in their crucial target seats of , , and - all of which they need to win to get a Commons majority.

To add to their woes, their hopes in Lib Dem-held , , and would also fade away.

In fact if most current polls were reflected in each of our constituencies they might not win a single extra seat in the North East and Cumbria.

Clearly with more than a fortnight of campaigning to go, and two TV debates left all this could change again.

And it's possible the polling is still just reflecting people's perceptions of who won the first debate, rather than any permanent shift in opinion.

But if the polls don't shift, the Conservatives are bound to be concerned that years of work in the region could have been undone in just 90 minutes of TV.

Political parties woo football fans in election battle

Richard Moss | 07:25 UK time, Monday, 19 April 2010

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Newcastle United supportersCrime, jobs, health, immigration, all predictable election issues.

But what about the fate of football clubs?

Unlikely as it seems that may just be an important factor in the battle for Newcastle's three parliamentary seats.

is keen to press the politicians for help in their cause.

They would like the chance to own the club.

after the Magpies' relegation from the Premiership.

At the time the club was for sale, and the owner Mike Ashley was about as welcome in St James's as a Sunderland supporter.

Since then of course, back to the top flight (you see I can do those football-writing cliches too).

But the Trust still feel the club's best bet would be a fans' takeover, and looking at its black and white chequered history over the last 30 years you can't blame them.

They see the General Election as an ideal way to win political support.

And they're definitely onto something.

Both .

Labour says .

.

.

But to help them find out more, I invited four of the Trust's leading lights on a pub crawl with a difference. Instead of downing pints, they'd meet politicians.

Newcastle United supporters meeting a parliamentary candidate
So we took off around three Newcastle watering holes to meet the candidates from the main parties.

They spoke to Wendy Taylor for the Lib Dems, Chi Onwurah for Labour and Dominic Llewellyn for the Conservatives.

It wasn't incident-free as you'll see from a previous post but all the candidates at least were very enthusiastic to lend their support.

That's hardly surprising if you study the contests in Newcastle.

All three constituencies - , and - have majorities of 7,500 and under, while the Supporters' Trust has 30,000 members, more than enough to sway any of the seats.

And they were a formidable bunch. They weren't being fobbed off with soft soap.

They challenged the candidates pretty hard to see if they really would match words with actions.

They're also promising to keep a close eye on whether the politicians fulfil their pledges if any of them get elected.

And of course this might not just be an issue in Newcastle.

There are more than around the country.

All may well want to cast an eye at the party manifestos and find out if their local candidates are prepared to support fan power.

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Education, education, education

Richard Moss | 14:18 UK time, Friday, 16 April 2010

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Primary school childrenMany of our schools may still be on holiday but they've been at the centre of my thoughts this week.

Our debate this Sunday is about education.

And Labour can point to some encouraging progress since 1997.

In terms of GCSE results, the North East was not covering itself in glory when Labour came into office.

Only 37% of pupils passed five GCSEs at Grade C or above in 1997, well below the national average of 45%.

In 2009, that had almost doubled to 73%, above the national average of 70%.

Cumbria has also seen some improvement. 44% of pupils got those five passes in 1997.

Now that figure has risen to 67%, a rise but it does now place the county further below the national average.

There've been similar improvements in the test results of 11-year-olds too.

And there's been significant investment in building new schools and refurbishing old ones - £3.4 billion in the North East according to Labour.

But is that the full picture?

There is concern amongst education professionals that we've become good at teaching our children to pass tests, but the jury's out on whether they know more, or are better educated.

And there are still some places lagging behind.

Even though GCSE results in Newcastle have improved significantly since 1997, the city is still only ranked 137 out of the 150 LEAs in the country.

And there are also significant numbers of younger people slipping through the system.

23% of 16 to 24-year-olds in the North East are classed as Neets - being neither in education, employment or training.

All good meat for our debate this weekend, where once again we'll be bringing voters face-to-face with politicians.

This time our debate is in Teesside.

And I can assure you there won't be 76 rules, and I will be allowed to do something other than shout the politician's names!

The first debate - my verdict

Richard Moss | 10:40 UK time, Friday, 16 April 2010

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The three leaders in the first Prime Ministerial debateIt was historic, it was unprecedented, and actually it wasn't half bad.

This country's first Prime Ministerial debate defied the predictions of dullness and managed to deliver an interesting and relatively heavyweight encounter.

The consensus from polling and the papers suggests Nick Clegg was the winner.

And in a way I'm not that surprised at that.

Any Lib Dem leader tends to get less exposure than the other two main parties outside an election period.

And Nick Clegg is often drowned out by howls and heckles from both sides during Prime Minister's Questions.

So this may have been the first time a general TV audience would have had time to take a look at him.

And having met all three leaders, he is the most personable, and the most relaxed of them, and that showed on television.

But he did also show a sureness of touch.

He may have been helped by the fact that Gordon Brown decided to talk about what the two of them agreed about rather than about how they differed.

And of course although the polls suggest he won the debate, the initial ones I saw didn't ask people who they thought would make the best Prime Minister.

That's a different question that may or may not have elicited a different answer, and both David Cameron and Gordon Brown would think they'd poll better on that score.

But here's the critical question, what difference might last night's make in the the campaign in this region?

That's harder to discern, but it may have some impact.

Just imagine being a Lib Dem candidate or activist this morning.

You're bound to have a spring in your step.

The newspapers are all praising the performance of your leader, and you can go out on the doorstep and say, look, now you can see why we picked Nick Clegg as our leader, and why we offer something different.

We don't know how much impact that might have in tight contests in the City of Durham, Newcastle, Harrogate, Berwick, Westmorland and Lonsdale and Outer York, but it can't do any harm.

And so far the Lib Dems' poll rating has defied predictions of a third party squeeze.

But of course there are still two debates to go, and Nick Clegg will no longer be an unknown quantity in the next contest. His performance might not surprise people as much.

The message that he offers a different kind of politics does seem to resonate at a time which politicians' reputations are so sullied.

But there's time for both Cameron and Brown to adjust their tactics.

The last two debates are on different subjects too. Sky's focuses on foreign policy, something which may allow David Cameron to score some more hits against Gordon Brown over government support for the armed forces.

And the final ´óÏó´«Ã½ debate centres on the economy, a subject where Gordon Brown is probably at his best.

My campaign slump of punch-ups and punctures

Richard Moss | 17:35 UK time, Thursday, 15 April 2010

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My well-behaved Newcastle United supporters in a pubParties often have their bad periods during the election campaign, the times which can jeopardise their poll rating.

The Belgrano row, the war of Jennifer's Ear, the Sheffield Labour rally.

Now I know how they feel as I've just been through a campaign slump.

It started last night when I nearly got into a fight in a pub.

Before you condemn me, I was working, and no alcohol had passed my lips.

Instead I was filming some Newcastle United supporters meeting party candidates in three city centre pubs for a report I'll tell you more about next week.

The shoots in the first two pubs went fine. It was early evening and although business was building up, the filming was trouble-free.

And when we made it to the third pub, it was completely empty. Nice and easy I thought.

Think again. Ten minutes in, and two of the noisiest drunks I've ever encountered rolled in, who were determined to play an unscheduled part in the filming.

When I asked for them to just give us a few minutes of peace, our relationship took a further downward turn, which ended in one of them threatening to "send the boys round" to my house.

I did in the end escape unscathed and with filming complete.

But my slump didn't end there. This morning I had to get up at an obscene hour to get to Middlesbrough College for a .

Bill Turnbull was awaiting my words of wisdom on the campaign in the region.

But somewhere around Seaham one of my tyres decided to blow up, and as sparks flew from the naked metal wheel on the road, my words were more of the basic Anglo-Saxon variety than wise.

My wheel and tattered tyreA taxi ride allowed me to make a belated appearance with Bill before another cab ride to retrieve the remains of my car at Easington Services.

Oh and in between I'd also lost a contact lens at the back of my eye (apologies if you're having a bite to eat).

I'm hoping this is a temporary blip and I can retrieve my campaign, but I think any political analyst would say I've not had a good 24 hours.

When I did get to Middlesbrough, Breakfast's Bill asked me how much interest there might be in tonight's Prime Ministerial debate.

I'm sure as elsewhere in the country there will be a curiosity factor.

But it also struck me that for many, TV events like the Debates may be almost the only evidence that an election is on.

In some of our safe Labour constituencies, including the one I live in, there are no posters, little sign of campaign literature, and no prominent visits.

With resources tight this is an election being fought on just a few fronts in our region.

I shall certainly be watching tonight of course. What I'm debating though is whether I can justify watching it with a few beers.

After the last 24 hours I think I deserve a drink - but I think it'll be at home and not in a pub!

Students abandon sit-ins for a seat at the table

Richard Moss | 13:28 UK time, Wednesday, 14 April 2010

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Student delegates at The Sage GatesheadThey were radicals with an ambition to change the world in the '60s, Trotskyite agitators in the '80s, but today's students have a reputation for being more interested in Countdown than communism.

But I can tell you student political activism is alive and well and currently residing in Gateshead.

That's the venue for the . A thousand students have invaded The Sage and the surrounding hotels and bars.

And as their Conference coincides with a General Election campaign, they're determined to flex their political muscles.

Their tactics may not impress the Class of 68 or 88 though.

I spoke to one student delegate who told me picket lines and sit-ins were a little dated.

Instead students today, she said, think they can achieve more by getting "a seat at the table" with the decision-makers.

It's hardly manning the barricades, but I suppose it is worth asking whether the student rebellions of the past really did transform society?

And there's no question that students can have an influence at this General Election.

In the North East they could be critical in deciding Labour's fate in the City of Durham and the Newcastle seats, as the Liberal Democrats are snapping at their heels.

The Lib Dems certainly targeted student voters pretty successfully in 2005, and they're intent on doing it again.

Labour clearly understand that though. One of the first visits of the campaign was by the Higher Education Minister, David Lammy, who met students in Newcastle.

And as the NUS they're determined to make the most of their influence.

Student campaigning magazine told me they're going to "explode" the myth of student apathy this time.

.

In particular they want them to say they won't vote for an increase in tuition fees during the next parliament.

They also want to see the voting age lowered to 16.

Certainly, the students I spoke to were all politically engaged, but of course they're just the tip of a very big iceberg. Statistically, young people are still the least likely to vote.

And the nature of student politics may be more complex and harder to predict than when I was at University (yes I know that was a long time ago - there's no need to get personal).

Although the conference in Gateshead had its share of left-leaning exhibition stands, the Socialist Worker and the like, both Newcastle and Durham Universities have thriving Conservative societies.

So it may not be straightforward to predict just how the student vote will influence the outcome in the region's University seats.

Election debates up and running

Richard Moss | 17:01 UK time, Tuesday, 13 April 2010

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Politics Show outside broadcastIt was a lively and busy first Politics Show debate in Berwick on Sunday.

The 25 minutes flew by and we didn't get to all the issues we wanted to cover.

But we got some good debate going about what the parties can offer older voters - the demographic group who may well decide the election.

I'm not sure we're any nearer to knowing what the solution will be to the issue of funding long term care, apart from the parties agreeing that the current system's reliance on people selling their homes cannot continue.

Labour's Dave Anderson departed from his own party's policy in saying that people should have to pay more in general taxation to fund it, but might he be right?

Guy Opperman from the Conservatives insisted the solution is their plan for a voluntary insurance scheme, in which people would pay a one-off £8,000 for their care costs.

The Lib Dems' Simon Reed says the party, like Labour, wants a Commission to come up with a cross-party solution that the public can buy into.

, we still don't have a definitive solution, and it'll be one of the big challenges facing any new government.

Politics Show outside broadcastIt was a beautifully sunny Sunday in Berwick, and I must admit it was nice to get out of the studio, even if we did retreat inside to The Maltings arts centre for the debate.

It was great to get a chance to bring the public face-to-face with the politicians, something that happens too rarely in the carefully stage-managed events which the parties often organise.

We've got three more debates to go, and again I'm hoping the audience will ask more questions than me.

Next stop is Stockton this coming Sunday where we'll focus on the other end of the age scale - the education of our children.

More on that later in the week.

Nick Clegg is the first leader to land in region

Richard Moss | 17:26 UK time, Saturday, 10 April 2010

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Nick Clegg by the Tyne BridgeOur region's first party leader visit of the campaign proper, and in a way it wasn't surprising it was the Liberal Democrats' Nick Clegg.

his fourth trip to the North East in two months.

He's been concentrating on and Tyneside as that's where the party hopes to win seats from Labour.

There was some confusion though .

But in fact he didn't set foot on that side of the Tyne as he was hosting a Question and Answer session at the Sage Gateshead.

There was a touch of shamefacedness (is that a word?) amongst his staff given local sensitivities.

But when it came to the event they made the best of it by announcing his appearance in "NewcastleGateshead".

Sadly, I couldn't stay to hear voters grill him as I had to get back to the office to make sure his appearance made it to air on the Look North Saturday bulletin.

Looking at the coverage by my ´óÏó´«Ã½ colleagues though, he faced questions on coalitions, immigration, and his attitude to the monarchy.

I did watch the online coverage during one sticky moment when a member of the audience raised the issue of Greg Stone - their former Newcastle East candidate.

Mr Stone stood down after some ill-advised comments on the web. Nick Clegg said he'd paid the price by resigning as a candidate and he'd accepted his apology, and said that was that.

Proof I suppose the audience wasn't vetted.

I'm sure Nick Clegg will be back in the North East before the end of the campaign (indeed his staff intimated as much), and I'd expect him to front up in Tim Farron's highly marginal constituency before too long.

But what of the other party leaders?

Up to Saturday, the Conservatives have had Shadow Cabinet members in the region every day - sometimes more than one.

But as yet David Cameron hasn't arrived, but I understand there could be a couple of visits before the end of the campaign.

No sign of Gordon Brown yet either. But I did catch up with David Miliband in South Shields on Friday.

The Foreign Secretary was the latest Labour minister to campaigning in the region, helping out in Tynemouth and Stockton South this weekend.

He insists though we will also see the PM in the region before the end of the campaign.

To be fair, Cameron and Brown are probably fighting on more fronts than Clegg, but the Lib Dem leader's visits do show that they see the region as important because of the potential gains it offers them.

How much difference leaders' visits make is a moot point. At the very least I suppose they rally the faithful, and as amply demonstrated by this blog, they also generate vital publicity.

Deselected Frank Cook stands as Independent in Stockton

Richard Moss | 15:05 UK time, Friday, 9 April 2010

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Frank CookIt should be a safe seat, but the decision by the sitting MP Frank Cook to stand as an Independent candidate in Stockton North could make Labour's life more difficult there.

Frank Cook was deselected as the Labour candidate in 2007.

There was dissatisfaction amongst local members who felt after 24 years they wanted a change.

At the time, he muttered darkly about considering standing as an Independent.

But he's largely been silent on the issue since then - until today that is.

.

Technically, he may try and claim .

But that assumes a lot of those people voted for him personally rather than the Labour party.

Labour certainly don't think that's the case, and have dismissed him as an irrelevance in the election.

Their candidate is local councillor Alex Cunningham. Also in the mix are the Conservatives Ian Galletley, and Liberal Democrat Philip Latham, who may hope to capitalise on Labour division. UKIP's candidate is Gordon Parkin.

Much will depend on how much of Frank Cook's vote in Stockton North is personal.

He has a record which people can look at. He would say I'm sure that it's a positive one.

But equally, as with many sitting MPs, he's taken some flak over expenses - in his case over .

As a former Butlins Redcoat he might add some entertainment to the race. But he's also a former gravedigger - we'll have to wait to see whether he's digging a hole for Labour or himself.

Older, bolder and the key to the election?

Richard Moss | 12:40 UK time, Friday, 9 April 2010

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Older women's exercise classIf you were a politician, whose vote would you go after - the young woman, the small businessperson, the cliched hard-working family?

All worth courting perhaps, but the electoral arithmetic suggests the best group to pursue is older people.

They make up an increasingly large chunk of the electorate, particularly in the North East and Cumbria, and statistically they're the most likely to vote.

The over-55s make up more than half the voters in 30 of our constituencies.

All six Cumbrian seats include a majority of older people, the highest being Westmorland and Lonsdale where more than six out of ten voters are aged over 55.

North Yorkshire also has a host of constituencies in the same category. The over-55s make up around 60% of the electorate in Thirsk and Malton and Scarborough and Whitby.

The North East also has plenty of "grey" constituencies - 20 in all, from Wansbeck (55%) to Tynemouth (53%) from Bishop Auckland (55%) to Middlesbrough South (53%).

And even in the one with the youngest age profile - Newcastle East - there's still more than four in ten voters aged over 55.

So older people must be top of the politicians' agendas?

You wouldn't know it from the main debate that's dominated the election so far - whether to raise National Insurance or not.

Although many older people will be concerned about the economy and funding for public services, the vast majority are retired so won't care what rate of National Insurance is charged.

Instead many in our region will be looking at the state pension. For around a third of people in our area, it's their only source of income, with only between 11% and 13% having a private plan.

And then there's the issue of long term care. All the main parties are agreed that older people shouldn't have to sell their homes to fund care. But there the agreement ends.

Labour want a free National Care Service, but are setting up another Commission to decide how to pay for it. That Commission may consider plans for a 10% "death tax" on people's estates, although it's been ruled out for the next Parliament.

The Conservatives have a plan for a voluntary insurance payment of £8,000 which would then cover the costs of all residential care, but not home care.

And the Liberal Democrats say they can no longer afford to promise free personal care, and want to see resources concentrated on providing respite breaks for carers.

It's the 2010 Election bag - but will it make another appearance?All these issues and others - hospital parking, fuel poverty, public transport - will come up on the Politics Show this Sunday as we bring some older voters face to face with a panel of politicians.

We'll be live from Berwick - where 60% of voters are aged over 55.

The panel is Guy Opperman (Conservative, Hexham), Dave Anderson (Labour, Blaydon) and Simon Reed (Lib Dem, Wansbeck).

I'm in the chair, but it's really the chance for voters to grill the politicians.

And I can tell you that the General Election's number one accessory - my big white bag - will be making another appearance due to popular demand.

I'm not saying when and I'm not saying how, but it'll be there.

Why my election's in the bag

Richard Moss | 18:42 UK time, Wednesday, 7 April 2010

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Man about town Richard Moss and his natty white Election 2010 bagIt's the fashion item that's the talk of the town - well the talk of our newsroom anyway.

I'm talking about my natty Election 2010 bag as seen for the first time on Look North yesterday.

It seems to have made an impact of sorts, as it even got mentioned to me in Carlisle today.

Close up of the Election 2010 bagI have taken a bit of flack over its colour - white with a hint of pink.

I would like to point out it wouldn't be my colour of choice but we had to find a white bag to work with the Election 2010 logo that was so lovingly stuck on it.

I must admit though I didn't notice the hint of pink when I bought it.

Dick Emery as Mandy with a friendThere have been some unkind individuals who have compared my appearance with the offending bag to Dick Emery's Mandy character - a rather camp cross-dressing caricature who used to hit people with his/her handbag while screeching "Ooh, you are awful."

Apologies to anyone below 40 for that obscure reference.

I was going to retire the bag after one and only appearance but it seems to have made an impression on people.

And as I am a perverse so-and-so, I might bring it out again at some point.

But of course what I can never reveal is what's in it.

Plenty have asked, but I'm not telling!

Enter the battle buses and campaign caravans!

Richard Moss | 17:57 UK time, Wednesday, 7 April 2010

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The Prescott Express battle busElections wouldn't be elections without John Prescott and a battle bus. And it was out in Carlisle today, at the start of a tour of 50 marginal constituencies.

But as I've mentioned before, the 2010 battle bus is a little more compact than previous models - in fact, let's be honest, it's a mini-bus.

I did have the cheek to ask Mr Prescott whether its size was a reflection of Labour's lower poll ratings this time.

He put it down to lack of money though, but he also said it suited his purposes better in this campaign.

He wants to go to the estates where traditional Labour voters may have turned away from the party, so a smaller bus - he says - gives him greater flexibility to reach the parts a big coach couldn't.

And size clearly isn't everything because the former Deputy PM and his bus attracted a fair old media scrum.

So cue the routine with his pledge card and some tubthumping against the Tories.

But the choice of Carlisle as the first stop on his tour shows the city's importance in this election, and the fact that Labour knows the city is under threat.

It's one of the Labour seats the Conservatives need to win to get a Commons majority.

Sitting MP Eric Martlew is standing down so local councillor and Labour candidate Michael Boaden has to build a profile quickly.

He was certainly keen to be seen with Mr Prescott as they went off to look at the city's new flood defences, and meet some voters.

Carlisle Conservative candidate's caravanBut I went to catch up with the Conservatives in the city centre. No battle bus for them, instead it was more of a - I don't know - a conflict caravan?

Their candidate is local solicitor John Stevenson, and he told me he's spoken to plenty of disillusioned Labour voters on the doorsteps.

The trick though will be persuading them to switch to the Tories to overturn a 4,000 vote majority (whittled down by boundary changes).

The Liberal Democrats came third in 2005, but their candidate Neil Hughes may influence the result by taking votes from his rivals.

Ken Clarke is in the North East for the Conservatives tomorrow. First Blair, then Prescott, and next Clarke. Am I in a time warp?

Why the North could be crucial in this election

Richard Moss | 13:25 UK time, Tuesday, 6 April 2010

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Ballot boxIt may feel like it began several months ago, but at last it's official. A General Election has been called.

Now it's fair to say the North East and Cumbria is not overflowing with marginal seats.

And if you look at the last two General Elections here, they've been some of the least eventful ever.

Only two seats have changed hands since 1997. The Conservatives recaptured Scarborough and Whitby from Labour in 2001, the Lib Dems taking Westmorland and Lonsdale from the Tories last time.

And it is perfectly possible that nothing much may change again.

But boundary changes, and the gradual decline in the Labour vote since 1997, do at least offer us the keenest contests since then.

A look at the electoral arithmetic suggests the area will play a part in deciding who forms the next government.

Nationally, the Conservatives need to get around a 7% swing from Labour to get a Commons majority.

Transfer that to this region, and there are four seats the Conservatives must win - Tynemouth, Stockton South, Copeland and Carlisle.

And of course they are the seats the Labour must hang onto in order to give themselves the best chance of either preventing a Tory victory or retaining power.

The Tories are not the only ones with their eyes on Labour seats though.

The Lib Dems need to win the City of Durham from them to show that they're moving forward from 2005. But they're also pushing hard in Newcastle East and Newcastle North, aided by boundary changes which have made them both winnable.

But they may have to fight on two fronts.

A Conservative revival threatens their existing seats.

Westmorland and Lonsdale is very marginal, but they will also be targeting Berwick, Harrogate and the new seat of Outer York, which on 2005 votes is notionally Lib Dem.

So there's plenty to play for.

Labour need to hold onto their heartland to give themselves the best chance of retaining power. The Conservatives need to make gains here to prove they can win in the North. The Lib Dems need to turn a gradual growth in votes into gains this time.

And let's not forget the smaller parties. UKIP, the Greens and the BNP may not win seats but an increase in their support could see them play a critical role in influencing results.

There'll also be a number of Independent candidates keen to take advantage of the expenses scandal to tempt people away from the traditional political parties.

All in all, this certainly looks likely to be the least predictable election since 1992. We could see a dozen seats change hands, but equally we could see no change at all.

But that'll be down to you, the voters, to decide. For months we've been talking about it, now, you have the power.

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