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Challenges ahead as MPs and I prepare for summer recess

Richard Moss | 10:00 UK time, Friday, 23 July 2010

Ian Swales wins Redcar for the Liberal DemocratsAs the Politics Show has wrapped up for the summer, and parliament has less than a week to sit, it seems the right time to reflect on a remarkable political year and gaze ahead.

Who'd have thought 12 months ago that Redcar would have a Liberal Democrat MP sat on the Government benches with the Conservatives (although I'm sure the local Lib Dems would tell me they were convinced even then that they'd win the seat)?

It was certainly the most surprising result of an election campaign that showed how local factors can make a difference.

Tynemouth seemed the most likely Labour seat to fall, with City of Durham a close second.

But both still have Labour MPs while the eminently holdable Carlisle and Stockton South were lost to the Conservatives.

And good candidates can also make a difference - witness the incredible double digit swing for Lib Dem Tim Farron in Westmorland and Lonsdale.

We also saw a whole host of new MPs enter Parliament too.

According to one survey, some of our new entrants might make the greatest impact.

Chi Onwurah MPLabour's Chi Onwurah (Newcastle Central) and Ian Lavery (Wansbeck) were listed alongside Conservative Rory Stewart (Penrith and the Border) as notable new entrants.

But all the new breed have been making their presence known, with some interesting and thoughtful maiden speeches and regular contributions to debates and Prime Minister's Questions.

And what of the result. Generally, Labour would be pleased with the number of seats they retained in the North East and Cumbria in 2010.

In terms of parliamentary representation, the North has become much more important for Labour because of the loss of so many seats in the South, and they remain the dominant force.

Yet that hides what was actually an awful result for Labour in terms of the share of the vote.

for the first time since the Second World War, winning a lower share of the vote than in 1983.

But who really benefited from that slide in support?

The Conservatives did to a certain extent. They reclaimed second place in the North East from the Lib Dems, with their vote up by four percentage points. But at 24%, their share was still well below the 31% they achieved in 1992.

The Liberal Democrats didn't benefit only increasing their vote by one percentage point in the North East despite the victory of Ian Swales in Redcar.

It was actually the smaller parties that benefited the most, increasing their share of the vote by 5 percentage points.

So there are challenges ahead for all the parties.

Any new Labour leader needs to be aware of just how bad the 2010 result was. They will need to be robust in opposing Coalition cuts, but also capable of carving out an alternative vision.

The Conservatives need to make good on their promises to rebalance the economy to encourage more growth in manufacturing and in the North. They have promised private sector growth to counter the impact of cuts on the region's significant public sector and need to show they can create an economy that can deliver that.

And the Liberal Democrats will need to be able to highlight how they've delivered their policies in a coalition government to satisfy their activists and voters that the deal with the Tories was worthwhile.

There's plenty of interest ahead too in the next few months.

The Labour leadership contest sprawls over the summer. David Miliband is still the favourite but brother Ed is gaining momentum.

A consultation has begun on the replacement for regional development agencies.

. They'll be local enterprise partnerships but Vince Cable has said some regional structure could survive. The Conservatives may not agree.

And indeed one Labour MP - Middlesbrough's Sir Stuart Bell - has already said he'd prefer to see one focused solely on Teesside, rather than on the North East as a whole.

.

Cuts of course are already biting in schools and in our police forces.

But the real detail of the impact of the cuts will only become clear in the autumn spending review.

The party conferences come before then, and will be an interesting test of the mood of members and their view of the "new politics".

Further ahead there'll also be a test of just what the region's voters make of the coalition too.

Next May's local elections will be a crucial insight into how Lib Dem voters view the performance of the party, and on how Labour's responded to defeat. The Conservatives will also hope the progress they've made isn't undone now they're in government.

And the North's voters may also be deciding on whether they want to change the electoral system and embrace the Alternative Vote, while also trimming the number of MPs in the region.

Time then to recharge the batteries. I'm away for a fortnight but will be back on the blog beat on August 9.

Until then, I hope the sun spends at least some time shining on you wherever you are.

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