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The day after - what damage has the tuition fee vote done?

Richard Moss | 14:25 UK time, Friday, 10 December 2010

Student protest in Westminster

Students set fire to rubbish outside parliament as MPs vote to raise tuition fees.

I could sense the tension as soon as I arrived in Westminster for the .

The police presence was building up long before the students arrived.

Initially, everything seemed calm, but with police and protesters enclosed together for so long, trouble seemed almost inevitable, and dragged on well into the night.

There were some surreal moments during my day in Westminster.

Frank Carson

It's the way he tells them - comedian Frank Carson pops up outside parliament in a surreal moment.

At one point the Irish comedian Frank Carson came out of the Commons and started performing in front of our camera.

I must admit I thought he was dead, but clearly rumours of his demise were greatly exaggerated.

I also spent my lunchtime in a café next to snoozing ITN newsreader Alistair Stewart.

But any good humour outside parliament quickly evaporated.

I wasn't one of those filming in the melee, but after the votes, I ended up with one of the Lib Dems who did decide to break his pledge to oppose a rise in fees.

And just below Sir Alan Beith's office you could see the violent clashes between students and police.

It's the first time I have ever done an interview where I could hear a near-riot going on in the background.

So why did the Berwick MP decide he could vote with a clear conscience for a rise in fees to £9,000?

He told me he thought it was the best available deal for his constituents - more progressive than the current system, and fairer to students from low income households in Northumberland.

And he insisted this was not someone sacrificing his principles for political reasons.

As a backbench Lib Dem, Sir Alan Beith had no ministerial ties. He was free to vote as he wanted, so he says he made his decision because it was the right package.

And even some of the Lib Dem rebels spoke supportively of the proposals.

Westmorland and Lonsdale's Tim Farron said the deal was a good one.

But he said he had to stick with his pre-election pledge to vote against a rise in fees.

So what damage has this whole affair done to the Lib Dems?

Well, at least on the surface relations between their MPs seem good.

They firmly believe this is a one-off rebellion, and that they will now return to being loyal members of the Coalition.

Student march in Newcastle

Students march through Newcastle, but polling suggests they're not the only ones turning away from the Lib Dems.

But the evidence is that it's not just students who are now turning away from the party.

.

Not terrible perhaps, but dig deeper into that data and you expose really worrying news for the party in in the North East.

A breakdown by area puts Lib Dem support in the region at just 4%.

That's a 20 percentage point drop in their performance at the general election.

It suggests fewer people in the North East now support the Lib Dems than in any other region.

It would lead to electoral catastrophe if it's borne out by actual voting in next May's local elections.

It also suggests the party might struggle to sell the Alternative Vote to people in the referendum which is also being held in the spring.

Just how keen will people in the North East be to support a change which might make the Lib Dems permanent partners in successive coalitions?

Sir Alan Beith says he's not worried by the poll. He's seen even lower Lib Dem ratings during his long career.

But many party members may now begin to wonder just what the long term impact of being in coalition will be.

This week's vote poses questions for the other parties too though.

With so much focus on the Lib Dems, it's easy to forget that the Coalition is actually dominated by the Conservatives.

How damaging might this week be for them?

That may depend on whether Labour can make them pay for it.

It will be a test for Ed Miliband, who also has to convince students and voters that his plan for a graduate tax would be significantly fairer.

We'll be hearing from our Lib Dem MPs and talking to Labour and the Conservatives on this Sunday's Politics Show at 12pm on ´óÏó´«Ã½1.

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