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Daily View: AV referendum result predictions

Clare Spencer | 10:30 UK time, Tuesday, 19 April 2011

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Ballot box

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Commentators discuss the referendum on whether to replace the first-past-the-post voting system with the alternative voting system.

The that apathy could lead to first-past-the-post being replaced by AV:

"With less than three weeks to go, the disturbing truth is that most voters remain as indifferent as on the day the LibDems first demanded this irrelevant exercise.
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"No wonder the turnout is expected to be dismally low. But as Mr Cameron warns, therein lies a huge danger.
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"For this public apathy may allow a small minority of AV zealots to triumph, saddling Britain with an obscure, unfair and expensive voting system that could seriously harm our chances of holding future governments to account."

Illustrating the apathy the leader article mentions is a the prime minister revealed that when he had asked customers at his local pub how they intended to vote they "had no idea what he was talking about".

with Liberal Democrat party members not to vote "no" out of revenge:

"The Tories ruled the last century on a minority of votes. It may be hard, but forgiving the Lib Dems will serve the left best...
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"For Labour the 'Can you ever forgive them?' question hangs in the air: as Ed Miliband well knows, victory almost certainly means coalition.
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"Even while sharing a platform, Cable yesterday talked about 'clearing up the mess in the economy' as his party's top priority, reminding us that nice Vince and every other Lib Dem MP voted through an extreme austerity budget that is now applying the brakes to economic recovery, while inflicting untold social damage that will take decades to repair.
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"Forgiveness will come hard to Labour and to defector Lib Dem voters alike, but those tempted to take revenge by voting no should better aim their ire at the organ grinder: a yes vote would throw a far bigger spanner into the coalition works, convulsing the Tories"

that the amount AV would affect results in general elections has been exaggerated:

"The alternative vote would make little difference in most general elections. It would not mean an end to safe seats or gift power to the BNP. The system offers a modest tweak, under which voters, if they wished, could place preferred candidates in order. If none reached 50 per cent, subsequent preferences would be reassigned until one contender passed that threshold."

Looking at the implications of the vote's result, that AV would not increase the amount of money the government spends:

"Since 2005 there has been a change from voting for the mainstream parties. This may have been down to the unpopularity of Labour and the Conservatives, leading to more protesting voting. Parties such as UKIP, Green and the BNP would have entered parliament as they received enough votes. This would have had little effect on governments, as the size of their vote was very small."

whether a "no" vote would provide the victory David Cameron "was denied last May":

"Ever since that event on May 11th 2010 the Tory right has been muttering against him and increasingly they've tried to dub him 'an election loser' with implied threats of what might happen if his referendum gamble failed...
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"The one danger now for NO is that the more Cameron looks set to win on May 5th the more Labour supporters might want to vote against him. The poll itself could influence the voting."

Finally, Vince Cable's use of popular culture in the voting system debate:

"With several weeks to go before the AV referendum the arguments are starting to get slightly repetitive. But Vince Cable has tried a different slant on the debate during this morning's joint press conference with Ed Miliband.
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"Instead of citing other countries with AV (Fiji, Australia, Papua New Guinea) he chose the - not entirely comparable - example of Strictly Come Dancing."

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