´óÏó´«Ã½

Ìý

As the world waits to see if German MPs vote for a German contribution to a Greek rescue package commentators look at its significance.

The is disparaging about the German public's resistance to the rescue package:

"Today's vote - on changes under which Germany's contribution to the EFSF [European Financial Stability Facility] rises from €123bn to €211bn - takes place with as many as 75 per cent of voters against it. Despite the dire predictions, it is unlikely that the German Chancellor will lose the vote altogether. What is in question is whether it will pass without relying on opposition support, an outcome that would not necessarily trigger an election but would leave Angela Merkel dangerously exposed. "Among all the inadequate responses to the crisis, perhaps the most egregious is Ms Merkel's failure to explain to her electorate that the cost of not bailing out Greece far outweighs the cost of saving it."

The that even if German MPs do vote through the rescue package, events have moved on:

"The most frightening thing, as Mrs Merkel now concedes, is that the cash in the kitty is no longer enough. If there were an easy way to let Greece leave or Germany quit, then this would have to be considered. The reality, brought home by UBS research, is that there is not. With no legal exit route, the validity of EU treaties would suddenly be in question - and amid a deepening slump which would inflame mercantilism and so preclude renegotiation. The crisis could thus turn existential, for the European project as a whole. All sorts of wheezes are being dreamed up to delay the reckoning, such as "leveraging" support-fund monies so they can buy more bonds, a trick with unfortunate echoes of the bubble before the bust."

Similarly, that, while he supports the rescue package, it will only lead to another crisis shortly:

"Even without Germany's objections, securing agreement across the eurozone in the six weeks that international policy-makers have demanded is almost impossible.
Ìý
"All the same, there's something here - something that's just about big enough to resolve the immediate crisis, and just about small enough to be politically acceptable... Europe's leaders should therefore use any breathing space that a rescue plan provides to reconstitute the euro in a more sustainable fashion - say along the lines of a north/south split. For it is plain to everyone, other than its leaders, that it cannot survive as it is."

Germany to "do your duty and save the euro" because, he argues, changes Greece has made prove it is worth it:

"What Greece has decided and has implemented is the best signal to date that the euro as a means of structural transformation is working. To anyone with a sense of history and an appreciation of the complexity of politics it is astonishing how quickly Greek politicians and society, with its record of corruption, tax evasion, nepotism and clientelism, and its rejection of merit and competition as guiding principles, have engaged in changes that would normally have required a generation to effect.
Ìý
"Germany has to reflect, ahead of today's vote, on the fundamental question at stake. While maintaining appropriate pressure on Greece, surely it is worthwhile to explain to public opinion that the euro is proving it can gradually transform economies in a way which corresponds to German inspirations and shared European values."

Finally, the eurozone crisis as a Greek tragedy, with Angela Markel at the centre:

"So let us hope for a heroine. That would be Angela Merkel. The vote in the Bundestag on Thursday will be her moment of truth. Her coalition is crumbling, her party is divided, she keeps losing local ballots, tabloids spread Europhobia and Germany's federal system encourages her propensity to endlessly test the political waters.
Ìý
"Can she now ride the storm like a Valkyrie determined to save Europe? That is exactly what is expected of her."