大象传媒

China鈥檚 music sales won鈥檛 pay for Robbie

• Rory Cellan-Jones
• 4 Feb 08, 16:40 GMT

Some terrifying figures landed on my desk this morning and any music industry executives who cast a glance at them may want to lie down and weep as they contemplate their future.

The statistics arrived in a press release from the music industry trade body the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry () trumpeting lawsuits against Chinese internet piracy. They outlined just how much consumers in what the press release describes as 鈥減otentially the largest online music-buying public in the world鈥� currently spend on music.

$76 million last year 鈥� around 拢40 million at today鈥檚 exchange rate. That鈥檚 about 3p per head. Or to put it another way, about half the amount EMI agreed to pay in October 2002 when he signed a new contract.

So don鈥檛 the Chinese have any appetite for music? Or maybe they haven鈥檛 yet got enough internet connections to make digital downloads take off? Actually, there are as many broadband connections in China as in the US and one suspects the interest in music is just as great.

Unfortunately 鈥� from the record labels鈥� point of view 鈥� that interest is being satisfied without the inconvenience of paying for music. According to the IFPI, 99% of all digital music files distributed in China are pirated.

An IFPI spokesman told me the industry had hoped that the arrival of digital music would bring a fresh start after years in which China was a world leader in CD piracy. Na茂ve? Certainly.

And if the industry hopes its new wave of lawsuits will persuade giant Internet companies like Baidu and Yahoo China to behave themselves, further disappointment may lie ahead.

Of course, the behaviour of China鈥檚 new music fans is just an extreme version of what鈥檚 happening in the rest of the world. The industry has sued music consumers, threatened ISPs and challenged governments to stamp down on piracy. All without any noticeable effect. Someone may have to think of a new way of paying Robbie.

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Brent Hoberman and the art of timing

• Rory Cellan-Jones
• 4 Feb 08, 07:32 GMT

Ten years ago one of the very few people to make money out of Britain鈥檚 dot com bubble was just getting started. He launched a travel website into a market suddenly obsessed with the idea that the internet would transform every business and make huge fortunes for those who could grab a slice of the action.

His name was Brent Hoberman and the business he started with Martha Lane Fox was .

For Brent Hoberman, timing was all. Lastminute was a tiny business with negligible revenues in but when it arrived on the London Stock Exchange it was valued at over half a billion pounds.

A fortnight later the bubble burst and soon tech stocks were only useful for papering the bathroom. Lastminute had raised the cash it needed to survive in the nick of time.

Now a decade on Brent Hoberman is launching another business 鈥� and this time it鈥檚 aimed not at twenty-somethings looking for a cheap weekend in Tallinn but at thirty-somethings wondering whether to paint the new kitchen olive green or fire red.

has got everything 鈥� links to major retailers, a 3D home design tool, and that Web 2.0 clich茅 鈥溾��, with ways to share your ideas about giving your kitchen a facelift with fellow users.

It has been far longer in the planning than Hoberman鈥檚 first venture and has raised 拢5 million in funding, compared to the 拢600,000 backing which got Lastminute off the drawing-board.

In 1998, there was still a relatively small internet audience 鈥� this time just about anyone who might have some cash to spend on doing up their home has already got a broadband connection.

But 鈥� and it鈥檚 a huge but 鈥� Mydeco could be a victim of bad timing. It launches into a crowded market just as the tech investment climate grows chilly, and at the very moment when consumers are getting more cautious about parting with their cash.

If the site鈥檚 backers want to recoup their investment via an IPO, they may have to be very patient. However Brent Hoberman has pulled in big names from Europe鈥檚 web scene like the Skype founder and insists they are in it for the long term.

Lastminute.com was a symbol of all the energy 鈥� and idiocy 鈥� of the UK鈥檚 dot com bubble. Mydeco will be far more low-profile in a more mature market but its progress will tell us whether the latest bout of bubble thinking is over.

Brent Hoberman tells me he is relying on what he calls counter-cyclical start-up theory. 鈥淲hen the big players retrench, the opportunities to innovate increase. Going against the grain is where entrepreneurs win.鈥�

Good luck to him - he's one of the nicest guys to have emerged in British business in the last decade. But I fear this time Brent Hoberman's timing may be just a little out鈥�

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