Catching up
Where have I been?
No, not on cloud 9 but on a course, a ´óÏó´«Ã½ course at that - the kind where you're told within the first few minutes that there are 'no right answers' but you work out for yourself pretty quickly that there are plenty of wrong ones.
It was very good stuff, so good I nearly ignored the texts that arrived every now and then - nearly but not quite.
Bleep: Seen Peter Hain's line in the Western Mail?
This was and the former Secretary of State had made it clear he intends to steer clear of any Yes campaign "set up now". That won't surprise you but it certainly spooked Plaid. Before the morning was out there was an official response from Labour and Plaid ... and another bleep on the mobile:
"Of course for a successful referendum to be held by 2011 this would require a Yes campaign supported by both parties. This will be discussed in due course by the leader of the Wales Labour Party, Rhodri Morgan, and the leader of Plaid Cymru, Ieuan Wyn Jones".
As pledges of any kind go, that's a pretty cagey one but given there were already one or two Labour voices in the Bay suggesting that Plaid were welcome to go for a Yes campaign as soon as they wanted but 'we're not going anywhere near it', Rhodri Morgan's dilemma is clear enough.
In the One Wales Agreement both parties agreed "in good faith" to campaign for a successful outcome in a referendum.
Without a far-reaching, well-organised, dynamic Yes campaign what are the chances of a referendum delivering a 'Yes' vote any time soon?
Remote? You bet.
Without Labour backing a far-reaching, well-organised, dynamic Yes campaign what are the chances of a referendum delivering a 'Yes' vote any time soon?
About the same as Sian Lloyd still being on Lembit Opik's Christmas card list perhaps.
Are there enough Labour AMs and MPs who will back a Yes campaign now? Please feel free to suggest your own analogy.
By the way the results of our St David's Day poll gave the Yes vote 49% and the No vote 42%. 9% didn't know how they'd vote.
This was the Western Mail's take on it last week: "A St David's Day poll for ´óÏó´«Ã½ Wales, excluding don't knows, gave the Yes vote 54% against 46% for a No vote".
I think I'll stick to the official version. I have, after all, just been on a ´óÏó´«Ã½ course.
I'm Betsan Powys, ´óÏó´«Ã½ Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on .
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In many areas of Wales Labour party members will not do anything in any future referendum on more law making powers.It will be a return to 1979. Given the fact that Plaid has so few members this will effectively mean that there will be no campaign for or against more lawmaking powers. With most voters getting their information from media from outside Wales this is going to make it even harder to get any message across. The agreement with Plaid for many in the Labour party was an issue of expediency not principle. The Jones Parry Commission is a classic example of to use a rugby phrase 'kicking for touch'. Even when it does hold public meetings as with the Richard Commission only the usual suspects in favour of more devolution will turn up. Whether or not there is a majority for a 'yes' vote will depend in many ways on voters views of the Labour government particularly at Westminster. In 1997 many Labour party voters supported the 'yes' campaign not because they were enthusiastic for devolution but because it was Labour party policy. Given the opinion polls and the anti politics atmosphere now abroad it could be very different next time.
I think Kerensky has it about right, the current anti politics atmosphere and professional cynicism shown by the print media from England would make a referendum problematic now. Clearly if its to be won you have to get the Labour machine on board. At the moment its against the self interest of a large section of the Labour Party to back a power switch. Its ironic that there seems to be broad support for the move to full legislative autonomy from the Tories, the Lib Dems and Plaid in the National Assembly. Probably about 2/3 of the Labour group are also enthusiastic - with a further 1/3 of Labour AMs firmly in the British Labour camp.
I don't think realistically we will see any moves from Labour to back an all party Yes campaign until after their leadership election. It will be interesting if the anti coalition grouping of Labour AMs and MPs will try to put up and support a devo-sceptic candidate.
The current arrangement where the powers of the National Assembly change with every Westminster Act of Parliament and this half baked compromise of legislative competence orders followed by assembly measures, complete with their tortuous path to approval, and with the multiple opportunities to veto from Westmister, is unsustainable in the long run. For it to work you require the genuine support of both Westminster and the National Assembly. That will not always be there and I think we have already seen the institutional inertia of Whitehall getting in the way of the process. Maybe that is the idea? Make the system so convoluted and complex that it breaks down and full legislative devolution becomes obviously desirable?
Of course Labour are not the only party that has divisions, the general membership and the MPs in the Tory party are very devo sceptic still, while their AMs (self interest or an insider view on the process, you decide) are all in favour - or at least mostly publically. It would be interesting to see the Tory Assembly leadership on the same platform as the One Wales government and the Lib Dems.
Realistically I think this is still two years off at least.
´óÏó´«Ã½ St David's Day poll...
171% thought Charlie Church was the new President of Wales ("Hi there, Prez.Hugo Chav of Cuba!") and Neil "AJ" Kinnock was the Leader of the NUM (in exile).
Enthusiasm for a REFERENDUM over Primary Powers ("It's the talk of N. Ponty!") ON the DAY...
Will be...MINUS Zero (Bob ap Dylan).
The ONLY way some people learn the true nature of fire...IS to put their hand in it.
SPEED the Day.
There's been some success in trying to find out the identity of the Assembly's sacked civil servant blogger.
Inside the concrete carbuncle, rumour has it that the former employee is going to an employment tribunal. I wonder if we'd find out any more under Freedom of Information, and will they tell all?
This alleged partnership is showing more cracks than the great rift valley.
If joining forces with Plaid was described as being unpalateable before they even shook hands, I don't suppose we can be that surprised when the Labour party seem to want to spit it out at the first mouthful. Have they actually managed to pass any jointly agreed measures yet?
I think Kerensky has it about right, the current anti politics atmosphere and professional cynicism shown by the print media from England would make a referendum problematic now. Clearly if its to be won you have to get the Labour machine on board. At the moment its against the self interest of a large section of the Labour Party to back a power switch. Its ironic that there seems to be broad support for the move to full legislative autonomy from the Tories, the Lib Dems and Plaid in the National Assembly. Probably about 2/3 of the Labour group are also enthusiastic - with a further 1/3 of Labour AMs firmly in the British Labour camp.
I don't think realistically we will see any moves from Labour to back an all party Yes campaign until after their leadership election. It will be interesting if the anti coalition grouping of Labour AMs and MPs will try to put up and support a devo-sceptic candidate.
The current arrangement where the powers of the National Assembly change with every Westminster Act of Parliament and this half baked compromise of legislative competence orders followed by assembly measures, complete with their tortuous path to approval, and with the multiple opportunities to veto from Westmister, is unsustainable in the long run. For it to work you require the genuine support of both Westminster and the National Assembly. That will not always be there and I think we have already seen the institutional inertia of Whitehall getting in the way of the process. Maybe that is the idea? Make the system so convoluted and complex that it breaks down and full legislative devolution becomes obviously desirable?
Of course Labour are not the only party that has divisions, the general membership and the MPs in the Tory party are very devo sceptic still, while their AMs (self interest or an insider view on the process, you decide) are all in favour - or at least mostly publicly. It would be interesting to see the Tory Assembly leadership on the same platform as the One Wales government and the Lib Dems.
Realistically I think this is still two years off at least.
Sorry about the double post everyone, gremlins in the ´óÏó´«Ã½ blogging software timing out leading to second posts :-(
My fault LDT. Most comments either disappear completely into a great 'time-out' hole or they appear in the comments box five times over. I must have approved two of yours. Good news on that front though. It looks like time might soon be up for the ´óÏó´«Ã½ gremlins - more when I have a firm date for the new, revamped + de-gremlined blog.
You know in a perverse sort of way its quite comforting that the software isn't working 100%. The Orwellian future where we are ruled by machines looks further away when a bit of blogging software has bugs in it :-)
The problem with Plaid Cymru is that in essence they are a one policy party but one which had expanded its views into a wider political sphere.
When will they realise that the 'now' national language of Wales is English and that the majority population couldn't care less for the old tongue.
Division is bad - integration is good. More law making powers for Wales is fine in principle but poor in practice if it leads to a greater sense of nationalism and isolation.
I support further powers but accept that a yes vote will be very difficult to achieve without 100% backing from the whole labour movement. By 2011 the circumstances for labour, I'm sure, will have changed as there will almost certainly be a Conservative government in Westminster thus galvanising the labour movement in Wales to campaign for a yes vote as they may face being out of power in London for another 18 years!
Tony Blair was a one off and I can't see anybody wiyh his personality and carisma on the horizon to steer Labour to a general election victory for quite some time.
I take it then that Stephen Marks is actively campaigning for the abolition of the European Parliament and the Westminster Parliament and calling for all power to be transferred to the UN General Assembly? And while he is at it working to abolish the Parliaments of places like Sicily, Catalonia, Zanzibar etc, after all having distinct nations and representative bodies all cause division....