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Seeing is believing

Betsan Powys | 06:28 UK time, Friday, 2 May 2008

I've just re-read the words "Torfaen Labour loss" just to make sure.

In fact Labour didn't just lose Torfaen: they were given a good kicking there. Hands up who genuinely foresaw that 18 Labour councillors would be wiped out in Torfaen? By the sound of one ousted councillor on Radio Wales just now, not him. The mood? That he really hadn't stood a chance.

I wonder what comfort Torfaen's MP Paul Murphy, the Welsh Secretary, can offer him? You can hear his verdict when he appears on Good Morning Wales after 8 o'clock.

I've just driven back to Cardiff from the Memorial Hall in Barry. Very little had been 'occurin' until 2.30am thanks to a load of late postal votes that had to be verified. It was nip and tuck all the way until Conservative AM David Melding was spotted nodding sagely and saying his maths had the Tories on course for 24 or 25 and victory. By the time he turned out to be right, the man with his sights set on Cardiff North, Jonathan Evans had arrived to join the party. Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan popped up from nowhere: "Nothing flash" she whispered, "just steady as she goes".

I drove past a road sign declaring Merthyr Tydfil 24, Newport 14: one already in No Overall Control, the other, if Labour Deputy Minister John Griffiths is right, looking as though it might suffer the same fate.

Turn left for Fairwater. Three straight Labour losses including group leader Michael Michael.

Labour have lost control of Flintshire, Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil. They're down to third place in Cardiff. I don't think their roadmap had warned them it would be this bad.

Counting starts in Rhondda Cynon Taf today with Adam Price MP claiming in the early hours that Plaid will do ok in RCT and even better in Caerphilly - a Labour source dismissing those claims, made before a single vote is counted, as 'tosh'. Not in doubt is that Plaid look set to lose outright control of Gwynedd and to lose some big name councillors. As 'scalps' go, Ceredigion prospective parliamentary candidate Penri James and - apparently - party president Dafydd Iwan, count as pretty impressive ones.

As far as Labour goes Neath Port Talbot has bucked the trend and is certainly safe. It looks too as though Bridgend will return to Labour control. That may cheer them up.

But the real comfort must be that the anti-Labour protest vote has been scattered far and wide, divvied up between a bit of everyone ... which means that come the General Election, there is no sign yet of one, clear winner who'd be just waiting to teach Labour another lesson.

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