´óÏó´«Ã½

They say that if a diplomat says, "Yes," he means "Maybe".

If a diplomat says, "Maybe," he means "No."

So I wonder if I were to ask Sir Emyr Jones Parry whether he thinks steps to establish the All-Wales Convention are being taken quickly enough, he'd be tempted to crack that diplomatic smile and say, "maybe".

Nick Bourne tried to be diplomatic a few weeks ago but managed to let slip that Sir Emyr was chomping at the bit, wanting to get a move-on and wishing the wheels weren't grinding quite so slowly.

Let's put it like this: the Royal Welsh Agricultural Show kicks off on July 21st. If Sir Emyr and the line-up of his Convention aren't sorted by then and if they're not seen and heard around that main show ring in their green wellies, then things won't have gone according to plan.

And I wonder too what Sir Emyr made of the Irish referendum result. It's not his job to sell us a referendum of course, let alone the need for a referendum in the first place. He's here to gauge our appetite for a vote and report back to the politicians. So there's no reason why he would have shuddered when he read that the massively outspent No campaign had swept to victory.

But I bet the consummate diplomat just wondered whether there could there be any "read across" - apologies for the management term - for a referendum on further powers for the Assembly here in Wales?

What might have struck him?

That the Yes campaign held overwhelming advantages. They had widespread political support, unanimity across political elites, blanket media backing whose main message seemed to be that a yes vote is a GOOD THING. End of story.

That the No campaign was a fairly ramshackle, down-home affair but with one or two significant financial backers.

And that the main message of If You Don't Know, Vote No, clearly seemed to resonate much more with the people than the Yes campaign's Trust Us We Know Best

He might then have made a cup of tea and thought through why people decided to vote No and he might have concluded it had very little to do with the detail of the Lisbon Treaty. It just seemed complicated, administrative and distant from people's lives. (The man who can probably recite Part 4 of the Government of Wales Act may have had some sympathy with them there).

And didn't the result perhaps show - despite what voters are told to keep in mind when they're putting a cross in the box - just how influenced referendums can be by external factors such as disarray within the Government of the day.

So is there a read across? Almost certainly I'd say.

For the Yes campaign in a Welsh referendum?

You need to make the case clearly, in a language people can understand. Just because you believe further powers are a good thing it doesn't mean "y werin bobol" as Sir Emyr is so fond of saying, will agree with you.

You also need to show you've got the ideas to make the new powers make a difference in the future. There's no point in a bigger vessel if you haven't got the means of filling it as someone said to me recently.

There's also a lesson from the opinion polls. The Yes campaign was well ahead in the weeks before the vote. But beware the don't knows. The No campaign picked up seventeen points in one week in the run up to polling day and if anyone in Wales needs reminding, momentum can take public opinion in directions completely unpredictable by those calling the vote.

And for the No campaign? Well that's rather simpler. What looks like overwhelming odds can be overcome if you keep your message simple, tap into existing feelings people might have about their rulers and capitalise on any splits in the Yes campaign.

But the All Wales Convention isn't there to sell us the idea of a Yes vote of course so maybe Sir Emyr sipped his tea and didn't give it a second thought.

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• |
• |
• - What's this?