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Pontypridd has more than its share of claims to fame.

Let me list a few: longest railway platform in the UK, a stone bridge that at the time it was built was the longest single-span stone arch bridge in the world (I know that because a bright spark from Ponty chose to answer questions on the bridge in the Welsh version of Mastermind last year), Hen Wlad fy Nhadau/Land of my Fathers was composed there by Evan James and James James and then there's Tom of course.

But it also has a trio of thoughtful taxi drivers who, when I bumped into them this morning, put into words what political commentators have been trying to spell out for days. It was a valleys twist on the "plague on all your houses" theory.

Two weren't going to vote at all in the European election. Why would they? They were angry and whereas in the past they'd not bothered to vote perhaps, now they were absolutely not going to turn out to vote for anyone. No way.

The third has always voted Plaid and was going to do so again. He must be glad, I suggested, that they'd not - yet - been exposed with their snouts in the Westminster trough, not been caught 'sticking to the rules' but breaking trust with the public? "They haven't been found out you mean" he said.

In other words if you've been named and shamed, you're guilty. If you haven't, you ought to have been. Trust? Pah.

Little surprise then that the phone rings with Karl the bookie offering new odds on what'll happen come June 4th.

Now let me fill you in. For twelve years Karl was responsible for compiling political betting odds for a bookie that took real money. Never in all that time did he find himself revising the odds so dramatically he says - not according to the money coming in this time of course but on account of what's felt over the past week like "the earth's political core opening up". Oh, I forgot to mention that he's a poet too.

Perhaps if Karl had been to this morning's launch of Labour's European election manifesto, he'd revise them even further. I should make clear that I wasn't there. I was covering Plaid in Ponty but according to colleagues who were, it was the kind of launch they'd expect from a - let's say more amateurish - minor party. There's nothing wrong with low-key launches but to them, this had felt low in confidence too.

Back to those odds.

Karl has cut the odds on turnout. I thought the last lot were pretty low with 3-1 being offered on 29%-30%. Now they're lower with 3-1 on 27-28%. I don't need to tell you that if we were really looking at turnout that low in a few weeks time - if people don't listen to Rhodri Morgan and set their alarms for June 4th - then predicting what happens to Labour's second seat gets very tough indeed. If you go by this morning's taxi drivers, you have to wonder what incentive is there for Labour's core support in places like Pontypridd and the valleys to turn out at all? Conservative voters - though no doubt equally angry - can at least sense blood.

So tough it may be but prediction is Karl's thing and he predicts Labour will still keep that second seat. They'll need every single vote to prove him right. He's slashed his odds on them having two Welsh MEPs from 3-1 to 13-8.

And which party will attain the most votes in Wales? Where were we BT - Before Telegraph?

1-7 Labour
4-1 Conservative
16-1 Plaid Cymru
50-1 Liberal Democrats

Where is the bookie now?

2-5 Labour
2-1 Conservative
5-1 Plaid Cymru
20-1 Liberal Democrats

No odds on the minor parties there but no prizes either for guessing that they could well gain from the general disdain with the mainstream parties.

And most telling of all? If Karl were still behind a counter taking real money on real odds and if his livelihood depended on getting it right, then he really wouldn't be in a rush to take money on parties other than Labour.

I'm off to Monmouth to listen to David Davies MP and Adam Price MP doing their best to change the subject from expenses (Adam Price said this morning that the atmosphere in Westminster's corridors is 'funerial') and talk, instead, about a future referendum. The event has been organised by the All Wales Convention and if those two don't draw in the punters, who will.

In the meantime do me a favour. Stick to the subject. Some of you stand accused daily of not just failing to do that but doing your damnest to avoid it in favour of rants and what certainly veers towards abuse. It's getting me down. More importantly by half it's getting readers down and it's putting off others who have less confidence, less appetite for an anonymous going-over but just as much right to join the debate.

Try it. You might find it gets us somewhere and these days, wouldn't that be very, very welcome?

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