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On a night when blogging should come in to its own I'm in a hanger just outside Haverfordwest- next door to BP Go-Kart racing by the way- and without internet connection. My claim for Blackberry may be made first thing tomorrow! I'll feed what I can to my colleagues in Cardiff.

Peter Hain, who was there for that "very good morning in Wales" has already foreseen a "very bad" night for Labour on the Politics Show. Alun Davies AM who is here to face the cameras is looking "very glum". All parties have set up makeshift offices- a chair and laptop and are jockeying for position. No one wants to sit under the sheep-racing poster (Lamphey, 10th July, a bargain at a fiver a ticket).

Plaid are refusing to put any money on their chances of beating Labour in the share of the vote. A reminder; no party has polled more votes than Labour in Wales in a national election since 1918- a fact that Plaid did check with reporters earlier just in case. The Conservatives still reckon Labour could come third which would "very bad" for Mr. Brown. We're told the declaration could be as early as 10 o'clock barring recounts or errant sheep!

UPDATE; Lib Dem faces are getting glummer. Not only are they running third in Montgomery behind the Conservatives and UKIP but UKIP seem set to come fourth and very possibly take a seat. The Conservatives look set to take first place in the popular vote, winning in Rhodri Morgan's Cardiff West and most, if not all, the Clwyd seats. Labour may edge Plaid by holding on in the valley battlegrounds like Neath Port Talbot and Caerphilly.

UPDATE 2; It now appears that Labour may just have held on in Cardiff West. Labour seem also to have held on in Newport East while loosing Newport West.

UPDATE 3; It looks as if the Conservatives may have won in Labour's great Clwyd stronghold Alyn and Deeside. Alun Davies has perked up. Labour are ahead in Blaenau Gwent. And that's good news? Plaid are ahead in Conwy by ten votes. Contrary to earlier rumours the Liberal Demcorats have not won Ceredigion. Plaid have.

UPDATE 4; Labour have not won in a single constituency outside Glamorgan and Gwent. The Conservatives have taken Alyn and Deeside by 700 votes. Labour have also lost in Gower (to the Conservatives) and Llanelli (to Plaid).

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