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A note to Rhodri:

This is a bit previous I know Mr Morgan but in a month's time you'll be turning 70. There will be a wave of good wishes coming your way, no doubt about that. Fellow politicians, ordinary people up and down the country, journalists and commentators will all wish you well.

You're still set, as far as we know, not just to open your presents of course but something else too - the race to take over as leader of the National Assembly Labour party.

It's very nearly happy birthday Mr First Minister.

Yet ask ordinary Labour party members who should take over from you and they are curiously untouched by the battle to come. I'm not sure why and neither are they.

Is it about to come alight, once you've blown out the candles on your cake?

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