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Have you heard the one about the statistician?

Probably ...

There's probably a psephologist joke out there somewhere too but the last one I sat down and listened to wasn't in jokey mood. As he saw it too many journalists were taking for granted that the Conservatives will win the General Election. He was fed up of reminding journalists that the fat lady hasn't sung - in fact, he suggested, she hasn't even chosen her repertoire - and that David Cameron does not have the next election in the bag.

There are Labour MPs who will now tell you it's game over.

Institutions in the city might be making decisions based on the probability that David Cameron will make it to Number Ten.

Come to think of it, no-one would hate the idea of governing by coalition more than those very institutions but the numbers man had a simple message: do some crunching and think on the real possibility of the Tories needing to form some sort of political partnerships.

Plaid Cymru's Adam Price MP, has been there, done that of course. He's got a red and green I-helped-form-One-Wales '07 T-shirt somewhere in his wardrobe, perhaps next to the I-helped-kick-Labour-into-touch one that is still in its cellophane bag but might come in handy one day.

He probably recognises, too, the dangers of starting discussions that yield nothing but flack.

I don't know about you but doesn't strike you as looking ever so slightly like a shopping list?

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