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When the cameras are welcomed in to see the first cabinet meeting of the new term limbering up for a session, the talk - so as to avoid proper politics and big decision making naturally - goes something like this:

First Minister: Have you thought about the pictures on your Christmas card for this year?
General muttering.
Unidentified female voice: I don't send cards to anyone.
First Minister: Ah well, some send a Mother's Day card, a Father's Day card, a Christmas card, a birthday card ...

That word. Birthday. I've just looked back at the tape. Both Carwyn Jones and Edwina Hart look very carefully at the piles of notes in front of them. The will-he, won't-he continues though with the man himself seemingly keen at yesteday's lobby briefing to strike off possible reasons for 'won't-he.'

Let's assume he will go then.

On the back of a notepad I'm scribbling the names of three candidates and a list of the Labour AMs who will endorse them. They need six names each to enter the race. On my list, Huw Lewis has six. Carwyn Jones and Edwina Hart have a few more names in their columns than they need. Some of the names have a question mark next to them, an arrow suggesting they could go one of two ways. Might this AM not like the idea of a female First Minister more than his ideas? Might he switch under duress to him? Rather a lot on this list from the same part of Wales ... and won't he say he's voting this way but in the end, vote that?

But on my list at least, everyone has six.

I have no idea whether Karl the bookie heard Andrew Davies on Good Morning Wales using the 'b' word - 'bland' - about what his preferred candidate is not, or whether he heard him call her "a winner". But Karl's odds have just arrived:

NEXT FIRST MINISTER OF WALES

CARWYN JONES 6-5
EDWINA HART 5-2
HUW LEWIS 3-1
JANE HUTT 10-1

INow that her name has been well and truly put in the frame, will Mrs Hart feel the need to come out and do her own talking - sooner rather than later?

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