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It's still a case of reading between the lines but it is starting to feel as though this stab at the choreography around Rhodri Morgan's departure wasn't that far off.

Let's say that 80%/20% will he, won't he shifts to 85%/15% and let's say too, for now, that the 85% are right.

His speech to conference in Brighton will be on a week Sunday. It will, perhaps, be rather less between-the-lines and rather more in-the-headlines than that particular entry had imagined and we will, so the whispering goes, 'be left in no doubt' as to his intentions by the time he leaves the stage. Not very statesmanlike to stand down in Brighton, rather than Cardiff did I say? Apparently that's almost the point. This is a party political matter and that is how the party want it to be seen - an announcement by the party man to the party, with the party faithful.

Next on will be Peter Hain. Then Sunday's Welsh night, with last year's goodbye Glenys topped by this year's hwyl fawr Rhodri. I imagine Frank Hennessy's been drawing up his song list for some time.

Unless someone's playing a very deliberate spoiling game, the First Minister's farewell is designed to go something like that.

But song lists aside, here's another list for you - a list of what we'll call 'the new marginals'. I've just been sharing it with producers who must decide where they're going to send their reporters over the coming months and who've got used, over the years, to commissioning constituency profiles on Cardiff North, the Vale of Glamorgan, Ynys Môn and of course, Conwy. How many of those have you seen over the years?

"If you're doing a piece to camera and want to see Conwy Castle, the town, a bit of the surrounding countryside and the coastline in the distance, there's a lovely spot just here" ... advice from the man who churned out pieces last time round and the time before that and for all I know, the one before that one too.

The newly-named Aberconwy make it onto the new list but only just and not because Betty Williams MP's successor is going to come from the same party. Some other familiar names are there - Ceredigion, Llanelli, Ynys Môn and don't take your eyes off Blaenau Gwent. (I was up there on Monday night and was told that in a school election not that long ago, Plaid took it. But back to the real world ...)

Otherwise?

Alphabectically it goes Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Carmarthen West and South Pembs, Cardiff South and West, Clwyd South, Gower, Delyn, Montgomeryshire, Merthyr Tydfil, Newport East, Newport West, Swansea West, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham ... I stopped there for the purposes of this morning's meeting.

A Labour source suggested recently that looking at North Wales, the party's best bet for a hold was Wrexham. Not Alyn and Deeside? No. The demographics have changed. It went in the European elections and now people are listening to warnings that on a bad night, it could go at the General Election too.

Last year a Labour AM told me that at that week's Labour group meeting, they could have sworn they'd heard a noise in the background - that of a train hurtling towards them at high speed but that no-one else seemed to be hearing it. Given it wasn't the sort of thing I'd got used to hearing from them, I listened properly.

A few months ago I passed them on the steps of the Senedd. You know that sound, they said - I know you think it hit us in June but I can still see those headlights coming.

.

Don't, then, expect the candidates who want to become First Minister to spend more than a few days saying goodbye to the old one - if he does make way for them. Sunday and Monday? Yes. By Tuesday won't it be Rhodri who?

They have a train to stop.

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