´óÏó´«Ã½

Remember the little bird? The one who'd heard there were three prominent valleys MPs who were planning to stand down but not sure when to say so? They were concerned, he said, that their departure ought, by rights, to lead to all-women shortlists - not something they or the parties locally would look forward too. The thought brought him to tears. As I said at the time, he was laughing ... or so I thought.

The three were worried too that by leaving the front just as the troops are going into battle, they'd do little for morale.

Well Pontypridd's Kim Howells has waved goodbye and last night, so did Islwyn's Don Touhig. The third name mentioned was former Welsh Secretary Paul Murphy.

The little bird's been proved right so far. So will he stay, or will he go? Mr Murphy says he's going nowhere.

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• - What's this?

The other day a colleague, who clearly knows far more about football than I do, compared the Conservatives' attitude to the election campaign with that other team in blue: Chelsea. They're out in front and keen at all costs to avoid a game-changing moment. Not exactly inspiring, you might argue but once you're in front, keep it that way and guess what - you end the game out in front too.

Now I know Bangor FC play in blue and so do Caersws (well if I'm honest I didn't know that until ten minutes ago) but whether either of them are particularly renowned for willing the ref to bring the 90 minutes to an end when they're out in front, I couldn't tell you.

Still, you've got the idea. The Conservatives know, as do we all, that the polls have been telling us for the past 10 months or so that they're some 10 points ahead of Labour. They're starting the match out in front. They look like finishing the match out in front. They want to keep it that way.

It''s that sort of attitude that informs reports that Cheryl Gillan met Carwyn Jones for the first time last week here in the Assembly. They chatted. It was very amicable and she found him easy to get on with. The message? If the Conservatives win the election, then all will be well. Cheryl Gillan reckons Carwyn Jones is a man she could do business with.

It's that sort of attitude that causes the Conservative party to distance themselves very quickly from the

And it's that sort of attitude that has sources close to the Welsh Conservatives shaking their heads in disbelief and wishing their ever so slightly reckless midfielder had kept quiet.

It might suit some - and then only some - in Mr Davies' constituency to hear their MP voicing his opinions and see their MP hitting the headlines again, they suggest.

What about the other 39 constituencies across Wales?

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• - What's this?

I don't know if Carwyn Jones is any good at Sudoku but the negotiations around whether the Assembly vote on February 9th is the formal trigger for a referendum on further powers are looking more and more like one of those number puzzles that is MODERATE at the very least, if not HARD.

The solution is the easy bit. We know that already - the 40 or more votes by AMs needed to pass the trigger resolution. Getting to that 40+ is the difficult bit. Why, you ask, when all four parties are in favour of a referendum before the next Assembly elections in May 2011? Well the key to the current difficulty lies in one word in that question - "before". That is "before" the elections on May 5, 2011, not on election day itself, as I've blogged before. (5th. 5th. Keep typing 6th when I mean 5th.)

Whichever way you do the number puzzle you can't, as things stand, get to 40 with just Labour and Plaid AMs. Two Labour AMs are on long-term sick leave. Standing Orders prevent the Plaid Llywydd and Labour Dirprwy Lywydd from voting in a trigger resolution. This leaves 36 votes - but only assuming every other government AM is present, correct and votes in favour. A bit of an assumption I'd say.

So where are we now? Well the voices that were pessimistic about February 9th being a trigger resolution are now stating confidently - a trigger it will be. Yes, I've seen . They feel overstated to me. The two are pulling in the same direction on this but let's be clear: it is far from a done deal. The votes of the opposition parties are still needed.

The Conservatives have stated their position firmly and unequivocally. They want a public or private assurance, a letter in Nick Bourne's back pocket as he put it yesterday, which contains a promise that the Assembly Government won't hold the referendum on May 5th next year. Once that's in the bag, the Tories will vote en bloc for the trigger. But both the First Minister and the Deputy First Minister are deeply reluctant to do this. No politician wants to tie his own hands if they can possibly avoid it. It also makes a mockery of the "keeping all options open" mantra that both Carwyn Jones and Ieuan Wyn Jones have adopted.

Without the assurance on the date will the Tories lend their votes to a trigger motion? It's a huge call, one of the biggest for Mr Bourne as Conservative leader.

Don't underestimate the lingering legacy of the 1997 No campaign. The story of the last decade has been a slow - and sometimes painful - transformation of the party's image as ardent anti-devolutionist to pragmatic pro-devolutionists. "Welshing-up" hasn't been without its bust-ups within the party but the job is done. Why shatter that with a vote or even an abstention that would allow their opponents to portray them as wanting to hold Wales back ... again? You can hear it now: those Tories want you to think they've changed but guess what, when it comes to it they haven't.

At the same time,don't underestimate the deep unease the Tories feel about fighting a referendum campaign on further powers in tandem with an Assembly election campaign. As one despairing Tory AM said in the tearoom this week, how can I tell my local activists to go out and knock lumps out of Labour one day when I'm smiling with them on a platform for further powers the next?

The Liberal Democrats share this unease. They too want the same firm assurances on the date but there's just a sense that it's not quite the deal breaker that it is for the Tories.

The tactic being adopted by the Assembly Government in relation to the opposition parties on this appears to be one of divide and rule. The two opposition leaders have been seen separately by the First Minister and Deputy First Minister to canvass their views. Both, I gather, delivered similar messages - rule out May 5, 2011 and all will be well.

Neither got that assurance.

The question is this: if and when it comes to the crunch will the two stand together? They are in a kind of prisoner's dilemma where as long as they're united they have (in theory at least) the power to get what they want but if one side changes its view the other is left exposed.

The Liberal Democrats have seen another backstop. The Order which will be drawn up as a result of the trigger and enables the referendum to take place will have to have a date written into it.

It also needs the approval of 40 AMs, just like the trigger. So if the Order has May 5th on it the opposition could withhold their votes at that point. But that would be another huge call to make and without the political cover provided by a prior assurance from Carwyn Jones that May is off the agenda, it simply shunts the prisoner's dilemma 120 days down the track.

If the Liberal Democrats decide they'll go ahead and vote for the trigger without any assurance on dates, then it would be possible to get to 40 but not by much. And - dear readers who've stuck with this so far - that is why a plan is afoot to try and suspend Standing Orders in order to allow the Presiding Officer and his Deputy to vote on the trigger resolution, boosting the government vote by two. Not enough to get to 40 without the Lib Dems but a useful insurance policy against any government votes going awry on February 9th.

The meeting rooms of Cardiff Bay are busy this week. Perhaps the real name of the game isn't Sudoku at all but brinkmanship. The motion has to be published by February 2nd, next Tuesday.

A lot of people have a lot riding on what's in it.

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• - What's this?

Daniel Kawczynski MP is renowned for, how shall I put it, keeping a close eye on what goes on this side of Offa's Dyke.

Well he might. He represents Shrewsbury and Atcham, a constituency that's bang on the Welsh border. For Mr Kawczynski and his constituents "cross-border issues" isn't a heading in a Welsh Affairs Select Committee report. It's day to day life.

Now to be clear he likes Wales. It's a great place. It's just that every day when he wakes up he doesn't exactly thank the Lord that he's next door to the Welsh. He has a long list of "issues" with Wales, the Welsh Assembly Government and the Assembly itself. In one debate last year he managed to question Wales's role in health services in Shropshire, flooding, tuberculosis in cattle, and "unfair and uncompetitive" grants to businesses handed out by the Assembly Government.

The upshot? "The Welsh Assembly creates huge difficulties for English border towns," in Mr Kawzcynski's view.

Does he tend to run his thoughts past Welsh Conservatives before voicing them? Probably not. In fact the Welsh Lib Dems reckon the answer is certainly not. Why? Because yesterday the Shrewsbury MP that would wave bye-bye to Mr d'Hondt and his semi-proportional system and therefore change the way 20 of Wales' 60 AMs are elected. Regional lists would be abolished and constituency borders redrawn to create 60 first-past-the-post seats.

Why do the Lib Dems suspect a lack of cross-border debate on this one? Because not only would the Welsh Conservative leader lose his seat under these plans. So would half the Conservative group in the Assembly who freely they admit they have Mr d'Hondt to thank for giving such impetus to the Tory comeback in Wales.

So Mr Bourne - fancy waving goodbye to him?

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• - What's this?

"Politicians are not slow to spot a bandwagon and in Wales bandwagons don't come much bigger than the one marked 'rugby'".

Not my words. They belong to David Williams, the man who wore the Political Editor's hat in Wales for many years and who

Guess what David? Plus ca change eh.

Last night someone else who has their doubts about the wisdom of (openly) mixing rugby with (party) politics forwarded this email to ´óÏó´«Ã½ Wales:

David Pickering has pleasure in inviting you to a Dinner atr the Park House Club, Park Place, Cardiff
on Thursday 4th February, 7 for 7.30pm, in the Company of the Rt Hon Peter Hain, MP, Secretary of State for Wales, and Carwyn Jones, AM, First Minister for Wales

Cost £1,000 per person

RSVP to ... and that's the problem. It's to the PA to the Group Chief Executive and Chairman of the Welsh Rugby Union. It's their name, their PA, their email address, their telephone numbers.

Not on, says Nick Bourne who says Mr Pickering, who's well known to be a Labour supporter, should apologise. He's called on the WRU chair to cancel the fundraising dinner - and presumably with it the money destined for Labour coffers, of course.

Labour's chutzpah is straight from the rugby pitch: thanking Mr Pickering for his support and pointing out that with Michael Ashcroft's money flowing into Wales...

"We are very grateful to David Pickering for his continued support of Welsh Labour. Facing up to a Tory Party bloated by Ashcroft's millions in the next General Election will be a tough ask and Labour, like all political parties, needs to raise money. Obviously all donations made to the Labour Party through this event will be declared in proper compliance with the regulations."

Not perhaps the distance some within the WRU would like to see being put between their chair and Welsh Labour, in the light of yesterday's email.

As I was in the studio, about to discuss the affair on Good Morning Wales this morning - another email arrives from David Pickering.

"Following news speculation over an event organised by myself in support of Welsh Labour, I wish to confirm that this was done in a purely personal capacity. This event is not associated with the Welsh Rugby Union in any way shape or form. In light of that, I accept it was wrong to use the Welsh Rugby Union email address. This email was swiftly withdrawn upon realising the error, and was not intended to cause offence to anyone."

So that's that? Well the Tories, Ashcroft millions or not, have clearly spotted that £1,000 dinners in Cardiff clubs won't exactly resonate with Labour's core voters. It may not be the last we hear of it today.

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• - What's this?

A new name has appeared under 'A' on the global address list of staff who work in the Assembly. It belongs to Natasha Asghar, daughter of Mohammad Asghar

At the time he said he'd become the first ever AM to cross the floor because he felt "out of tune" with Plaid policies, especially the rather crucial ambition of securing independence for Wales in the long term. Respect for the Royal Family seemed a key reason for defecting too.

Plaid hit back, accusing Mr Asghar of walking out without the courtesy of warning his support staff or his leader because Plaid hadn't agreed to let him employ his daughter. It was an explanation to which Mr Asghar himself gave some credence in later interviews. His brand new colleagues wish he hadn't. Natasha Asghar, they said, was not working for her father and he had no plans to employ her.

So, is Natasha Asghar working for her Dad? Yes, says Mr Asghar but she's not being paid. "She is not a burden on Assembly finances". In typical robust, if not entirely thought-through fashion, Mr Asghar says that when he changed his allegiance his staff "walked out on him - I was without support staff other than my wife". She is the other 'Asghar' on the list above.

Does he have any plans to make Natasha's position permanent, as suggested by her inclusion in the global address book and to pay her in future? After all .

"Only time will tell."

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• - What's this?

A word of warning: if you live near Ynys Mon and have an important meeting in Cardiff next week, or if you live near Cardiff and want to head up North, your secretary might have a bit more trouble than usual in booking you a flight.

Why? Because if you go to the Highland Airways website you'll find you can't.

Again then, why? Because in the last few minutes Basil O'Fee, the company's Commercial Director, has confirmed that the company is experiencing problems and are seeking new investment. They've suspended website bookings as a precaution but are confident that within the next hour, there'll be a press statement making clear how the problems can be resolved.

Is that it for the service nicknamed "Ieuan Air?" It doesn't seem fair, does it. The company who operate it get an annual subsidy of £800,000. The minister responsible for handing over the money gets stuck with a nickname you imagine he could live without.

One expert suggested this morning that in his realistic view, the service is 'dead-ish.'
Passenger numbers have exceeded expectations - 28,900 over the first two years - but let's be blunt: if bigger airlines thought that figure meant it was worth putting on larger planes that would attract more passengers and make more money and need less subsidy, they would have applied to run the service themselves. They haven't. So is it Highland Airways or bust?

The Assembly Government, who - let's face it - have rather more than £800,000-worth of prestige riding on this scheme - say they want to emphasise that even if the company go into administration, Ieuan Air will not be grounded. Highland Airways would continue as a going concern so that a buyer can be sought. In the medium term, they're 100% committed to the North South Airlink.

You could suggest your secretary takes a look at instead - and no, the link wasn't sent care of anyone who is a known fan of the airlink - or perhaps start composing a letter asking the Assembly Government just how confident they are that the £800,000 they've paid out per year so far has been worth it.

UPDATE

Here's the statement from Highland Airways in full:

"The company is currently facing difficult trading, most recently exacerbated by the severe winter and resultant reduced flying and reduced income.

The Board has been seeking new investment, and has been in discussion with several parties in recent weeks.

Negotiations are ongoing with a potential investor that provides an excellent way forward for the company.

The outcome of all these discussions should be judged within days rather than weeks.

In the meantime the company continues to trade normally fully supported by all our staff.

The company continues to enjoy the support and encouragement of its many stakeholders and customers.

Highland Airways delivers niche aviation solutions to a diverse range of customers across the UK. These include subsidised air services between Cardiff and Anglesey, Stornoway and Benbecula in the Outer Hebrides, and Oban and the Inner Hebrides. Other activities include aerial work, newspaper delivery to some Scottish islands, corporate staff shuttles and air charter".

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• - What's this?

To events in which of Wales' county councils does this refer?

The council "has been bedevilled by personality driven, petty parochial vindictive factional infighting. This is a disgraceful example of an attempt to use an officer as the meat in the middle of the sandwich of personality driven infighting; even worse those involved see nothing wrong with dragging an officer's personal and private life into these matters".

Anglesey, of course.

Who wrote such a blunt letter and sent it to every single one of Anglesey's councillors? David Bowles, the man sent in to sort out Wales' worst performing council.

"I have been appointed by the Minister and ... am therefore not bound by some of the constraints which may face other officers within local authorities".

That much is pretty clear.

How do we know about it? The final paragraph of the extraordinary letter explains:

"I did consider marking this letter Private and Confidential but decided against it on the basis that it would get leaked anyway. I regret having to write to all Members in these terms rather than just the few but that is a consequence of how the few conduct themselves".

As Mr Bowles puts it, these are "extraordinary times" for Anglesey Council. He may be holding his head in his hands but there's one thing he's not doing: backing off.

And neither are the people who put him into Anglesey to sort things out, the Welsh Assembly Government.

Here's the reaction from the Social Justice and Local Government Minister Carl Sargeant, to today's letter.

"These events underline the scale of the recovery task facing the authority and re-affirm the findings of the Wales Audit Office Report regarding the unacceptable behaviour of some members. It is this type of behaviour that undermines confidence in the Council's ability to put its past problems behind it and focus on the challenges it faces in improving services, tackling the effects of the recession and managing tight budgets.

"My predecessor appointed Mr Bowles as interim Chief Executive of the Council because of his very considerable experience in turning round local authorities in difficulty. He has made considerable progress in his current role and we will continue to work with him to support the recovery of the authority.

"In addition, the Anglesey Recovery Board will monitor and evaluate the Council's progress towards sustainable recovery and provide advice to me and the Council as necessary.

"I am not prepared to tolerate a continuation of such unacceptable behaviour from a minority of members within the Council. I will be seeking the views of the Board as to what further action they deem to be necessary to ensure that the Council's recovery is not blighted by this or any further incidents like it."

A resounding backing for Mr Bowles then, from a Minister new in post, but who sounds as if his patience with some of the councillors of Anglesey is wearing very thin already.

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• - What's this?

A few months before he actually got the job - no, won the job hands down - Carwyn Jones came across as a man who truly wanted to be First Minister but who'd live if he didn't make it. Rather healthy if you ask me.

I'm not suggesting for a moment that his delight in getting the top job is waning but isn't alraedy abundantly clear to us all that having got it, he's also copped a whole load of the sort of pressures that go with standing out there on the deck, plotting a course through the icebergs ahead. Forgive me, I've just spent two days on a leadership course.

Which pressures am I talking about?

; ; the Welsh economy struggling - pick your links, though today's news is a little brighter than it has been for some time.

But for a moment let's concentrate on another sort of pressure, one that isn't on the front pages of the ´óÏó´«Ã½ news website today but one that's squeezing Carwyn Jones between a rock and a hard, hard place - the pressure that has prevented him from making a clear, concise statement telling us whether the vote held in the Assembly on the 9th of February will actually trigger the referendum or not.

It didn't sound great, all the waffling and writhing in his very first lobby briefing as FM. It can't have been the plan, so why is he having to do it?

Right: let's run through what we know.

If the trigger vote isn't held on February 9th, there are legal experts who say there is only the slimmest of on-paper chances that the referendum would be held in October. In their view, autumn's out if the process isn't kicked off in February.

Other equally eminent constitutional experts, also listened to by the politicians, say you could start the process of forming the referendum question and preparing the exact, water-tight wording of the Order before you actually squeeze the trigger. It sounds like putting the cart before the horse but with political reassurances that a Secretary of State would then be willing - and able - to move like the clappers, then an autumn referendum could still be on the cards.

Why on earth would you choose to do it that way? I really don't know.

To get a vote through that would trigger the referendum, 40 Assembly Members must vote for it.

26 Labour AMs and 14 Plaid AMs make 40 but they wouldn't all be allowed to vote. Take out the Presiding Officer and his Deputy and one or two who are likely to be absent due to long term illness. One Labour AM has already intimated that if the vote is indeed presented as a trigger vote, they might well find an urgent constituency matter cropping up on the crucial day, keeping them away from the green 'yes' voting button.

So looking at the maths Labour and Plaid need the support of other parties.

Looking at the big picture, the First Minister and his Deputy want the vote to display cross-party unity. A referendum? Yes, look at us! We all want it and most of us by far want to win it.

On to what I'm pretty sure I do know.

The Plaid group want an October referendum. It would hardly be the end of the world for Plaid if it slipped to May 2011 but Ieuan Wyn Jones knows that as far as his party's concerned, October must remain an option. No wriggle room there. There's always the argument that the sort of voters who'll bother casting a vote in a referendum are more likely to be supporters of Plaid so there are those who favour May, the Presiding Officer among them. Win win for Ieuan Wyn Jones?

The Conservatives group, now 13 in number, want an October referendum and are adamant it's just not on to hold it on the same day as the Assembly election - May 6, 2011. If there's even the merest hint that the referendum may be held on the same day, they won't vote for it. Either they get a public, or even private reassurance, that May 2011 is off the agenda or they abstain.

In this game of three dimensional chess, however, the Tories have another factor to consider - and that's if they blocked a referendum - Plaid's shining prize in this Assembly term, it's hard to see that Plaid could possibly entertain them as coalition partners in the next Assembly. Wouldn't that leave them decidedly short of options when it comes to forming an administration?

The Liberal Democrats want an October referendum and would prefer to see the date, if possible, specified when it comes to the vote on February 9th. If the date isn't there, or the private promise of a date, what do they do? Abstain, even though Labour and Plaid need their support? No. The trigger vote would be lost and with it, the chance of having the referendum in October which is what the Lib Dems want. Counter-productive, surely. The Lib Dem group won't hold things up.

Independent AM Trish Law wants an October referendum. She wants strong indications that May 6th 2011 is off the agenda before she votes yes to the trigger though.

So back to the maths. If Carwyn Jones wants the February 9th to be a trigger vote, he has the numbers. Labour, Plaid - even with inevitable abstentions/absenteeism - and Lib Dems should - should - get them over 40. No need to give Nick Bourne assurances on dates. Not ideal but the maths could be made to add up, give or take a bit of arm-twisting.

So Plaid want an October referendum, the Conservatives want an October referendum, the Lib Dems want an October referendum. What's stopping Carwyn Jones from calling February 9th a trigger vote?

Getting the wording absolutely right so that True Wales supporters don't see an opportunity to challenge it legally?

Finding the time to have the necessary discussions with opposition leaders?

Considering all the options properly and thoroughly?

Welsh Labour MPs don't want him to? The Secretary of State really doesn't want him to?
Not at all says a voice from Westminster. All Welsh Labour MPs want is for the matter to be sorted quickly, smoothly so everyone can start concentrating on the General Election. For them, a referendum is a sideshow.

So there you have it.

I know what I know. I know what I think I know. Carwyn Jones has ten days or so to tell us all what we really want to know: is the referendum process triggered on February 9th or not?

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• - What's this?

A few years ago, when Lord Glentoran was made Conservative spokesman on Wales in the House of Lords he infamously and very honestly admitted that "I know nothing about the politics but I know quite a lot about the geography having climbed most of the mountains".

One of the events I missed last week while up a mountain myself was the unveiling of the new Conservative candidate in Ynys Mon. Trefor Jones - if you remember - withdrew his candidacy before Christmas. Anthony Ridge-Newman, his replacement, is a Surrey councillor but in true Glentoran tradition wanted it known that he "is proud of the fact that he has climbed Mount Snowdon, not once but twice!"

I've not been up a mountain this week, rather sitting in a rather isolated conference room, talking. Thankfully the occasional text is allowed. One of those wondered what Prospective Parliamentary Candidates like Mr Ridge-Newman might make of the wording of .

Sent: 19 January 2010 10:17
To: All Battleground Directors; All Campaign Directors; All Regional Directors
Subject: Candidate description

Please note that it has been determined that the agreed candidate description for all parliamentary and local government candidates will be "The Conservative Party Candidate" (Scotland and Wales please ignore)

Welsh Labour reckon they couldn't have put it better themselves.

"What better advice than to ignore Conservative Party candidates in Wales" said a spokesman ... still chuckling and probably painfully aware that while winning Ynys Mon might be too much of a mountain for Mr Ridge-Newman to climb, it won't be a walk in the park for anyone.

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• - What's this?

In the bar of the Mountain Ash Bowling Club tonight Ieuan Wyn Jones was talking about values.

"This election" said the Plaid leader "will be about vah-lues", the Swansea Valley vowels retained by this Gog coming out strong. "We can all string together the policies we think will be attractive but what are the values that underpin them? Our values are your values."

He talked about social justice, about fairness, about a fairly funded Wales. Plaid would hone in on the Foundation Phase, making sure the way early years education is delivered actually works, on vocational skills and increasing Wales' share of Research and Development money. There was a pledge to protect health spending, to strive to give the Assembly the tools to do the job and of course, the pledge to give every pensioner a "Living Pension - a pension you can live on".

Values? More like "irresponsible, uncosted fantasy politics of the worst order" said Labour; "half baked plans, your sums just don't add up" said the Lib Dems; "fantasy economics which gives false hope to pensioners" said the Conservatives.

"And for those of you who've just watched the item on the news" - former Plaid AM Pauline Jarman took to the stage and to the warpath - "and who think our pledge to increase pensions is pie in the sky, tell that to the slate quarrymen of Gwynedd ... tell that to the lady who was not for turning until our very own Gwynfor Evans secured a Welsh fourth channel ... Plaid Cymru and the SNP will certainly strike a good deal for Wales and Scotland".

Tell that to the pensioners playing bowls next door?

The huge indoor green was busy with an inter-club match. "What's going on in there then?" asked one of the players, a pensioner who saw my notepad and wondered if I was taking orders for tea. "Plaid putting up our pensions? But they haven't got a cat's chance in 'eck of winning! Nonsense."

"Pensions - that's not devolved is it?" asked another. No, this was a Plaid pledge tied to the Westminster election, the General Election. "Oh, forget that then. Mind you my company pension's been frozen. I need every penny coming our way. It's the sort of thing I want to see."

"To be honest I'm edging towards voting Conservative" said one on-looker. He was fed-up with mothers on benefits whose teenage daughters were pushing prams and arguing over milk vouchers in the shop, pubs full of people on benefits complaining that the council wasn't doing enough to clear the snow. "Get out there and do it yourself I wanted to say". He liked the noises David Cameron was making on marriage and responsibility. A 30% increase in pensions? He turned and looked at the audience next door. "Is that what they're promising? Yes, well ..."

"We're Labour all the way here" said a young man on his way in to watch the match, oblivious to the blatant pitch for his vote going on next door. Having laid claim to the legacy of Keir Hardie this morning, tonight it was S.O.Davies' turn. He was born down the road in Abercwmboi, the local Plaid candidate reminded us. He's buried in the Maes yr Arian cemetery overlooking Mountain Ash, or as Dafydd Trystan Davies put it, "overlooking us approvingly I'm sure".

The pitch to valleys Labour voters? Plaid understands people's despair and lack of faith in politicians. Plaid could be the vehicle to rekindle their faith in politics. Disillusioned Labour voters in the valleys don't have to abandon the values on which their communities were built but hey, why not renew their vows with politics ... with Plaid?

Next door the bowls matches were in full swing. "You've got to hit the jack you see or it doesn't count, even if it you do get it into the ditch" - the rules of bowling spelled out by the fed-up-Conservative leaning onlooker.

"Let me tell you who we need. Guy Fawkes, that's who" - the reality of a still angry, disillusioned electorate spelled out by his friend. "A rise in pensions? Pah. It won't add up to anything. Guy Fawkes, that's who we'd support!".

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• - What's this?

On Monday Assembly Members head back to the Bay.

I'm sure they'll survive happily enough without me for a few days. Back next week. I may well have managed to read The Handbook of Life by then, a book in which seventy UK Politicians and World Diplomats (the publishers' capital letters, not mine) have a stab at revealing the meaning of life.

In his contribution Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, says the best bit of advice he ever got came from his grandmother: "Darling, it's not how you're doing; it's what you're doing."

I'll bear it in my mind in 2010.

I did ask whether there were any Welsh politicians who had shared the meaning of life. Not one amongst the 70 plus submissions apparently. They're probably wondering whether it's a devolved matter or not.

See you next week.

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• - What's this?

Some of you, at least, will be glad to know that a day's silence on the blog was down to a day's filming which will, I hope, be of some use to my colleagues beyond Wales.

The object of the exercise was to remind them, as they prepare for the General Election, that Gordon Brown/David Cameron/Nick Clegg - tick the relevant box - aren't really talking to Welsh voters at all when they make pledges about the future of the NHS/waiting times for cancer treatment/Sure Start schemes/ investment in schools and so the list goes on.

After all part of our job is making sure we know that, so that there's every chance you, as voters, are clear about it too.

This morning came the news that David Cameron was coming to Wales and was heading to Newport to visit a depot where road salt was being farmed out.

What's the first question that came to one producer's mind? "I thought I'd better check. Is gritting devolved or not?"

The answer is yes, sort of. The conversation that ensued suggested some political unit staff know more about the jagged edges of gritting, post-devolution, than is good for them.

And it's only January 8th. Roll out the gritters and roll on the next four months.

By the way Mr Cameron, as you may have seen, got to meet his party's newest recruit in Wales, Mohammad Asghar (or should that be the other way round?) As it's been so quiet in the Assembly it's been hard for some in Cardiff Bay not to notice Mr Asghar's daughter, Natasha, apparently at work in his office.

Given her Dad's reasons for crossing the floor from Plaid to the Tories , her presence has raised eyebrows. I'm told by Conservatives that the eyebrows can relax. She is not working for her father.

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There's one in her constituency and Cardiff North MP Julie Morgan isn't amused. That Tory poster proves, says the Labour MP who'd lose her job on less than a 2% swing to the Conservatives that "not only do the Tories budget figures not add up ... they don't even know what they have the power to spend money on".

Did Nick Bourne approve "these inaccuarate adverts" she asks "or did they just appear to mislead the Welsh public?" Guess what Mrs Morgan? In another part of Cardiff, it looks as though the wind and snow has down a dismantling job for you.

By the way what I didn't show you the other day was the billboard next door to Mr Cameron's. After a morning of making snowmen with my children, I now feel able to reveal the whole picture.

I know. I flinched when I saw it, wondered what you regular visitors and commentators on this blog might make of it, shuddered and ... cut it out.

Go on, like the weather, do your worst!

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Forgive me a bit of a childhood memory. There is a point to it, honest.

Waking up, looking out of the window in Roath Park in Cardiff and seeing snow, knee-deep. Sunday morning meant ... no chapel! Or so we'd thought. Dad, who from memory had been asked to fill in for the minister that day, had other ideas. Anoraks, scarves and gloves on and off we went, Dad, my big brother and I.

We fought our way through the snow all the way over to Minny Street chapel in Cathays. 10.30a.m. No-one else there - not that we'd dare suggest that was no great surprise. Dad had a key so in we went. He wasn't, was he? He wasn't actually going to preach? We sat in the vestry and Dad opened the Bible. That, he said, had been the whole point of the journey and it was important, given we'd ventured out at all, that the Bible had simply been opened. Why go to all that trouble otherwise?

We had a whale of a time getting home again and Dad will be surprised to know that I actually remember what he said. You see Dad, I did listen.

Now, I said there was a point to this and here it is.

You might well have spent much of today staring at various bus and train timetables, scratching your head and weighing up whether it's worth venturing out and it just struck me that a number of people within the Welsh Assembly Government have been doing a similar thing. The difference is that their timetable is section 103 of the Government of Wales Act. Like many roads and railway lines at the moment, it must seem littered with unexpected obstructions and patches of black ice.

At the moment, the Assembly's Future Business agenda for plenary sessions runs to January 27. Between now and then, AMs can look forward to debating the outcome of the Copenhagen conference, the local government settlement and many other topics. What, at the moment, they won't be talking about is Sir Emyr Jones Parry's Convention report on a referendum.

Bus and train timetables, in theory at least, provide a time for departure, and a time for arrival at your destination. If you're on board in time for departure, weather permitting, you'll arrive where you want to get to, when you want to get there.

And it's that departure time that is preoccupying ministers at the moment. Because if your destination is a referendum on further powers for the Assembly in the autumn of 2010, well that train must be perilously close to leaving the station.

Here's why.

The "trigger" I was talking about a few days ago is a resolution of the Assembly. Under the Act, 40 or more Assembly Members must vote in favour of a resolution introduced by the First Minister or another Welsh minister.*

There will need to be a lot of talking before this happens but for the sake of getting to this blog entry's destination, let's just assume that these are relatively short conversations. Let's say the resolution is tabled and voted on at the last plenary session of the month, January 26.

The First Minister Carwyn Jones would then write to Secretary of State Peter Hain by, say, February 1st, indicating that the Assembly has requested a referendum. Mr Hain then has 120 days to lay a draft Order before Parliament.

Here's where things are going to get really slippery. This Order, as laid down in the Government of Wales Act, is not simply to ask both Houses of Parliament and Her Majesty the Queen to give their blessing to a referendum. It's actually going to be a very detailed piece of legislation, including the exact question that will be asked, the organisation of the poll, funding of the costs of holding the referendum and - critically - the exact date of the poll.

So in theory at least, the Secretary of State is in charge of deciding the date of the referendum. Now it's inconceivable that this wouldn't be a joint decision with the Assembly Government, but what it does indicate is that the Assembly Government is going to have to have come to a clear decision as to the exact date it wants to see the referendum before it tables that resolution.

See now why getting to Minny Street by 10.30am on that snowy morning came to mind?

So why the rush to table the resolution you ask?

Because the timetable for an autumn poll is now extremely - perhaps impossibly - tight. From February 1st, according to the Act, the Secretary of State has 120 days - around four months - to lay the draft Order before Parliament. That takes us to June 1st. But slap bang in the middle is the small matter of the General Election. The very latest that Parliament can be dissolved is May 10th. Allowing for four to six weeks for Parliamentary procedure between laying and voting and not leaving it till the very last minute, this indicates that the draft Order would need to be consulted on, drafted and laid by late March.

So what if it isn't? Well, then the Order goes into abeyance until the new Secretary of State arrives. Then, the consultation period starts again - but of course we're now weeks closer to that autumn destination. There's simply no way of knowing whether the new Welsh Secretary will see the referendum Order as a red hot priority, or whether they'd rather take their time on such an important issue.

Either way factor in your four to six weeks to get the draft Order through a post-election Parliament, another month for Royal Approval in a Privy Council meeting and the Jones-Parry Convention recommendation for a 10 week referendum campaign and the chance of a late September, early October poll looks pretty small.

The next feasible opportunity for a referendum is the same day as the Assembly election in May 2011. Yes, aiming for next year slackens the timetable considerably in terms of starting the journey - but it comes with its own set of problems.

What I understand is that senior ministers are on the platform but they haven't yet decided whether to get on board the train. Concentrating their minds is the thought that once you're on board, there are precious few opportunities to stop ... and get off.

* This is what it says in the Act's Explanatory Memorandum: "The third stage in the process could however only be introduced following endorsement of that proposal in a referendum. The White Paper noted that the Government had no current plans to hold such a referendum, but the Bill implementing its proposals should nevertheless provide the powers for one to be held, so as to avoid the need to have to return to Parliament to secure the necessary legislation if it was ever decided to hold one at some future time".

Is it me, or do you hear echoes of Peter Hain's voice in that "if it was ever decided"! Did he think then there was even a chance that he'd be getting a letter from the First Minister less than four years later? Probably not.

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On the 15th/16th of January Welsh Labour MPs will be flocking to Llandrindod once again to meet their Assembly colleagues.

A suggestion in an E-mail message from one who'll be there that the timing of the referendum would be "a hot topic of conversation".

Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt have just provided them with another one, rather more urgent they might argue.

Ringaround of Welsh MPs underway, including those where, as the Email message put it "the only thing stopping (them) from stepping down immediately is the certainty of having an all-woman shortlist imposed".

Remember the little bird I quoted at the end of this entry?

Kim Howells has already said he's off, so two questions: who's next and is that little bird still smiling, let alone laughing?

UPDATE: Welsh Labour MPs - those who've picked up the phone at least - so far backing the Prime Minister. They are a mixture of "totally bewildered", "100% behind Gordon", of the view that this move is "insane".

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Plaid's Elfyn Llwyd reckons "there must be some dynamite" in them there papers.

.

They're talking about Cabinet sub-committee papers on devolution, before Christmas.

At the time the Information Commissioner, Christopher Graham, said he was considering taking legal advice on whether to challenge the decision to use the veto for a second time. It was used for the first time to block the release of cabinet minutes relating to the Iraq War.

Today he's revealed that though he's "perturbed by the 'blanket' nature of the exercise of the veto in the present case" on reflection "he is inclined to wait and see whether the exceptional does indeed become more routine." The full report is .

In other words, the Information Commissioner doesn't like that "blanket" and if it's used again to smother information he thinks is in the public interest, he may well do something about it.

But for the second time, Mr Straw's blanket stays put and we stay in the dark.

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The Electoral Commission has published how much the parties spent campaigning in Wales at the 2009 European Parliamentary elections. It comes to a total of around £600,000.

If you're interested, you can find out how much each party spent and what they spent it on here.

In Wales the Conservatives, who topped the poll and won one seat spent £133,788, a little less than they spent back in 2004. Labour, who held onto one of their seats, spent £10,000 more than in 2004 and are top spenders - £169,944. Plaid, who also won a single seat, spent a great deal more than in 2004, £97,232 compared to £37,150, while the other party to get a seat, UKIP, spent well under half what they spent last time round: £37,743 = 1 seat.

Perhaps they could offer a bang-for-your-bucks seminar. The Liberal Democrats might look at the maths and fancy going along: £82,533 = 0 seat.

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Seen one of these?

If you live in Cardiff, Swansea, Newport and bits of the country the Conservatives think they can win like Aberconwy, Delyn and the Vale of Clwyd then there's a fair chance you have. I passed one this morning in Llandaff North. Heads were turning to check out Mr Cameron's face - his very best youthful, yet authoritative look - and the message alongside it:

"We can't go on like this.
I'll cut the deficit, not the NHS".

Consider the General Election campaign well and truly underway.

An Email arrives from Mr Cameron: "What do you want to ask me about the NHS?"

How about ... given health is a devolved matter, does it make sense to put these posters up in Wales at all?

Only asking but think about it this way. The Conservatives could win every single seat in Wales and beat Labour hands down in a General Election but the Health Minister in charge of the NHS in Wales the next morning would still be Labour's Edwina Hart. She gives and takes orders on health policy based on a mandate that comes from the Assembly, not Westminster.

So when Mr Cameron vies for votes by saying he'll cut the deficit, not the NHS - in other words he'll protect health spending come what may - what he means is that he'll protect health spending in England. People of Llandaff North and beyond, make note.

Does the Tory leader's pledge have a direct impact on the NHS in Wales? Well, yes and no. Let's start with the 'yes'. If money spent on the NHS in England is ringfenced then the knock on effect of the way the Treasury funds the Assembly is that a significant part of the overall amount of money handed over to Wales is ringfenced too.

Then the 'no'. The Welsh government can spend the money they get from the Treasury as they will. They don't have to spend it a particular proportion of it on health.

Labour could put up huge posters of Gordon Brown over the coming weeks with a pledge to "finance a new right for cancer patients to have diagnostic tests carried out, completed and with results - often same day results - within one week of seeing your GP. That is our early diagnosis guarantee, building on our current guarantee of only two weeks wait to see a specialist".

Now yes, granted, they'd come up with something shorter and catchier and they probably wouldn't go for a huge shot of Mr Brown alongside it. But I'm quoting from an eye-catching, vote-winning pledge, or so Labour hope ... that is only relevant in England.

So come on then, does it make sense for the Conservatives to put up the Cameron/NHS posters in Wales?

Does it matter when any number of those who spot them will decide how to vote based on the picture of the man next to the pledge, not the pledge itself?

Does it matter that this election campaign will be fought on some key pledges that are, in fact, pretty meaningless to us?

Your vote counts as much as the next man's but the man on the poster's pledge? Ah, well .... that's a bit more complicated.

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Back in November of last year the Institute of Welsh Affairs considered a future "Life under the Tories."

I chaired the event and as per usual, spent much of the time scribbling notes in the margins of the conference timetable. Some seem fascinating at the time but are indecipherable when I sit down later and try to read them. Others are simply jotted, almost in passing but turn out to be rather significant weeks later when I re-read them.

So how about this: Sir Emyr Jones Parry sketched a possible scenario - sketched let me assure you, not advocated - a scenario whereby a vote would be held in the Assembly in January 2010 that made clear the intention to hold a referendum on or before May 2011. It wouldn't trigger the constitutional, legal process of holding a referendum but politically it would lay down a marker. It would be a public statement of intent. The All Wales Convention could no longer, after all, be the government's "alibi".

Wouldn't that make more sense, he asked, than actually triggering the process in the dying days of the UK government? Wasn't there more logic and political mileage in laying down your marker, then triggering the process proper once the General Election has been held and a new government, of whatever colour, is in place in Westminster with a mandate to govern for years to come?

I tried the theory out on a Plaid source before Christmas. Why wouldn't you trigger the process in January, came the response? Why not get the process started before the electioneering proper starts? The time for markers and statements of intent is long gone.

So will there be a vote in the Assembly before the end of this month that triggers the process that leads, eventually, to a referendum? It might be quiet in Cardiff Bay but the voices I can hear are insistently whispering that yes, there will be.

Let's hope other voices join in the whispering over the next few days.

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Back to an Assembly building that's oh-so-quiet and an inbox devoid of action because it's too full. Time to delete. Press releases get the chop first.

"We are ready for a General Election" says one from the Liberal Democrats. "Kirsty Williams and Nick Clegg have put the Welsh Liberal Democrats on alert for a Spring General Election - and declared they will be ready ... Kirsty will be a breath of fresh air, putting forward new and innovative ideas to help Welsh families through the recession."

Still a breath of fresh air? Hang on ... that one's from January 19th 2009.

Delete.

"Positioning Wales for the upturn" comes next. At last! Is there some good news to share? Ah, no. This one's a press release from the Deputy First Minister sent out in February 2009. The positioning goes on. So, sadly, does the waiting for the upturn.

Delete.

How about a quick scan of the government's decisions released over the Christmas break? Any good news in those at the beginning of a brand new year? Yes, as it turns out, for some. Or for one. It looks - on the face of it - like a happy new year for one public servant, the Chief Executive of the Sports Council for Wales.

Let me explain.

Back in July . Yes, that's right, 11%. Given the current state of public finances, the long wait for that upturn, not the most sporting, or sensitive of requests you might say, whatever the merits of the request.

It certainly didn't find favour with the then Finance Minister, Andrew Davies. He was described by sources as being "incandescent with rage" at the bid. He could do a pretty good "incandesecent with rage" and on this occasion it was, I gather, an apt reflection of his reaction. In short - dream on.

But that, it turns out, was so 2009.

As the year drew to a close the issue of the SCW Chief Executive's salary came up again. This time, with more briefing and checking of facts, it received a more sympathetic ear. The Minister for Heritage, Alun Ffred Jones - and we must assume the Finance Minister Andrew Davies - sanctioned what's described as "an exceptional increase" to the Chief Executive's salary.

How much is "exceptional"? According to a Welsh Assembly Government spokesperson the Sports Council CEO's salary had fallen out of line with roles of similar responsibility in Wales. So he'll get an increase of 10.4% but "steps have been taken to ensure that the costs of this readjustment can be met from the rebalancing of roles and reductions in the cost of the Sports Council's wider senior structure. The increase in the Chief Executive's pay is 10.4% but to minimise the costs to the public purse associated with the increase, the Chief Executive will not be receiving a performance bonus in the 2009-10 financial year."

Perhaps when the Sports Council first tried to get his salary increased some years ago, we wouldn't have batted an eye-lid. In 2010, unfortunately for Dr Jones, we do.

And then, there's this. Talk about uncomfortable reading.

At its December meeting the Sports Council Board considered two papers, the first spelling out how tough things are for the public sector. "All the indications are that the public sector will face significant cuts to its budgets going forward. Indeed, the Council, being funded by the Welsh Assembly Government, has been informed that short to medium term funding for pay awards will be, at best, scarce."

But wait. There was another paper considered by the Sports Council Board at their December meeting. Now if you have a low threshold for the work of external branding consultants you may want to get out of the box at this point and go and push an envelope somewhere.

If you're still with me, read on an extract from a paper entitled "Brand Positioning".

"Working with brand positioning agency Underground, we were able to map out our current personality, and those personality traits we were striving to achieve as a dynamic, confident sports agency.

"This work was carried out using Carl Gustav Jung's theories. He believed that universal, mythic characters - archetypes- reside within the collective unconscious of people the world over. Archetypal images represent fundamental human desires and evoke deep emotions. Each of the 12 archetypes we work with symbolises a basic human need, aspiration or motivation. In other words, an archetype is a human type in its purest form: the classic hero, outlaw, ruler, etc. Each type has its own set of values, meanings and personality traits.

"Following internal consultation, the 3 dominant personality traits as displayed by the organisation (current and aspirational) are found to be (1) Hero, (2) Sage and (3) Innocent.

"With this in mind, we are proposing to change our brand name to better reflect our personality traits. The name proposed is Sport Wales. "

As Carl Gustav Jung might have said - am I dreaming this?

And as those who've borne the brunt of "a number of compulsory redundancies (at the Sports Council) over the last two years ... always a painful experience" might feel entitled to say - am I hearing this?

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