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On your marks, get set ...

Betsan Powys | 12:49 UK time, Tuesday, 9 February 2010

Pull the trigger and what do you get?

A reaction.

If you're an athlete you work at it and work at it until "the interval time between the presentation of a stimulus and the initiation of the muscular response to that stimulus" is as short as possible. In other words the trigger's pulled and you go for it.

One stimulus. One option. One goal.

If AMs pull the trigger on a referendum in the chamber this afternoon - and they will - what do you get?

If you're Peter Hain then within 14 days you get a letter telling you, as Welsh Secretary, of the Assembly's wishes. He then has four months - 120 days - to work away at a draft order for a referendum, the one with the details about questions and dates, to be voted on by both Houses of Parliament.

What if you're not Peter Hain?

You get to see a visible sigh of relief amongst the four parties, an even greater sigh of relief amongst those who want to see a Yes vote in a referendum that the vote was an united one. And do you get to hear the sound of silence that comes with an agreement that with the trigger pulled, it's time to shut up on this issue until after the General Election?

Labour's Alun Davies AM brings to an end like this: "That's it for now. That's my last word on this for about 88 days. After all, there's a General Election to fight". He would add, of course, "And to win".

So what happens to that debate during those 88 or so days? Who moves it forward?

When Sir Emyr Jones Parry and the All Wales Convention were testing attitudes to the current settlement and assessing the degree of support for a referendum he sent a letter to the four main political parties asking them for idea around law-making. What, he asked, could you achieve after a Yes vote in a referendum that you can't achieve now?

The response to that particular stimulus?

Zero. Nothing. No-one responded.

So once again, what happens to that debate now?

Who moves it forward?

When the trigger's pulled, who reacts?

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