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Before, after, ever after

Betsan Powys | 13:25 UK time, Thursday, 27 May 2010

"We do think the Barnett formula is coming to the end of its life.

"But the assurance I would give to people is that if you replace the Barnett formula you have to replace it with a needs-based formula and there's plenty of evidence to say Wales' needs are very great"

As spring turns to summer and election results turn to coalition deals, so Francis Maude, Tory Cabinet Office minister took to the airwaves on Good Morning Wales this week to tell listeners that the new Conservative-Liberal Democrat government is "committed to keeping" Barnett, that change is "not a priority." That it, in fact, "protects Wales".

A clearly uncomfortable Welsh Conservative leader Nick Bourne's reaction? "That's just not right".

Someone else's discomfort is equally easy to understand. Unfortunately for Kirsty Wiliams, one of the lenses trained on her when Kirsty met Cheryl was in, what at a guess was, Labour party hands.

It's fairly clear that while the UK Tory and Liberal Democrat parties are - at least relatively - content with what they managed to get into the Queens' speech and the legislative programme, their Welsh counterparts are, you feel, not in any way content.

Scotland, after all have got a new Scotland Bill. Here's a spokesperson for the Secretary of State for Scotland Danny Alexander. "There's a serious intention to get on with this. We're moving faster than was previously envisaged but we are having engagement along the way to make sure we get a better package."

That package includes Holyrood getting greater control over income tax and borrowing.

For Wales specifically? Nothing in the Queen's Speech but a strangely worded clause in the coalition agreement to look further at funding and other issues if and when a referendum on further powers is won.

It is an odd clause and there's been a great deal of head-scratching across the board, including in the higher echelons of the Welsh Conservative and Liberal Democrat groups, who - and I'd offer pretty decent odds on this one - weren't given the sign off before it went to press.

But now, all is clear.

Consider this, then, from Jenny Randerson, in the Assembly chamber earlier this week. "The Liberal Democrat-Conservative coalition want to go beyond Holtham, to Holtham-Plus".

All four parties, she said, have been guilty of having been "far too modest" in their ambitions for the Assembly.

"We want tax-raising powers for this Assembly. That is what we are looking at and that is why it must come after a referendum on legislative powers."

That's Holtham, as in Gerry Holtham, whose initial report on the Barnett Formula has taken on talismanic properties for the politicians in Cardiff Bay for laying out, for the first time, some hard economic evidence to back up the claim that the Barnett formula under-funds Wales.

Not quite as talismanic for Mr Maude, who seemed confused when this was put to him on air, claiming alleged under-funding wasn't a "key part" of the report. Summer reading perhaps?

It's fair to say Mr Holtham is not best pleased that his hard work has been roundly ignored by the incoming Government so far but he can at least take some comfort from Ms Randerson's words, because his second report, into taxation and borrowing powers for Wales, is due out early in July.

Then we'll find out who's calling the shots - Francis Maude or Jenny Randerson.

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