´óÏó´«Ã½

Here come the cuts, delivered by a Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition in Westminster to the budget of a Labour Plaid coalition in Cardiff Bay. We'll come to the politics of it all in a moment.

First: by how much did the First Minister expect the Assembly Government budget to be squeezed by this morning's announcement? The figure he'd used was £220m, one that assumed most, if not all, of the £6b in cuts would have a knock-on effect on Wales via the Barnett formula.

In the event the sum Wales must cut looks like being £162.5m. Calculators are out in Whitehall and in Cathays Park and they're coming up with a sum that says Ministers must find that £162.5m out of the budget they'd already allocated for 2010-11. There are a lot of raw figures in there so take it as read that there will be some devil in the detail that is yet to become clear.

This is, says Cheryl Gillan, "a fair deal for Wales". Savings in Wales have been "limited" and are less than is being asked of many UK government departments.

So what now? Isn't the Welsh budget already set for 2010-11? Yes, it is. Have the Assembly Government been arguing privately, therefore, that they shouldn't be treated like "just another Whitehall department"? Yes, they have. George Osborne has already offered the devolved nations the chance to defer the cuts until 2011-12 precisely because their budgets had already been agreed on.

It means, says the Welsh Secretary, that in her view there is "no need to cut essential frontline services in Wales - or any part of the UK - as a result of these savings."

The offer to defer "could be useful" said the First Minister last week.

It could be useful but it could also be storing up big problems for later. What will the scale of the cuts be in 2011-12? If you defer the whole £162.5m, or even a part of it, what happens if the cuts that year are, say ... £300m? That would be £462.5m to find.

And the politics?

Carwyn Jones and Ieuan Wyn Jones are in Stormont today meeting the leaders of the devolved administrations. Top of the agenda? Cuts. Close to the top of the agenda? Economic recovery and how to make it happen, while delivering the item that's top of the agenda: cuts.

An SNP, DUP and Labour leader standing together and making it absolutely clear that when their own national elections come about, that the cuts they're having to deliver - or storing up to deliver later - are being foisted upon them.

With Gordon Brown gone, Carwyn Jones can now stand with the other two and point a finger at Westminster.

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• |
• |
• - What's this?