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On the day, that feels so very long ago, when Labour launched their manifesto in the Wales Millennium Centre, the Lib Dems were just dreaming about being linked to words like "surge".

Nick Clegg and "mania" ..? Don't be daft.

Back then thought that the Prime Ministerial Debates would fundamentally change people's minds, change the whole focus - the language even - of the campaign seemed very remote.

Then came the first debate, then came the clear suggestion that quite a few minds had been changed and big Lib Dem spike that showed in the ITV Wales/YouGov poll.

This is what I wrote back then:

"The ITV/YouGov poll of voting intentions, which carried out its fieldwork in Wales between April 14-17 (the debate took place on the 15th, before you ask) has come up with these results, with difference from March figures in brackets:

Labour 33 (down 4)
Conservative 23 (down 6)
Plaid Cymru 9 (down 5)
Liberal Democrats 29 (up 17)

Now that's what you call a spike. Month on month, it's frankly jaw dropping".

Now, in a country where the paucity of polls is still a real problem, another has thankfully been published, .

The results are these:

Labour - 37.5%
Conservatives - 23.5%
Liberal Democrats - 21%
Plaid Cymru - 10.8%

Labour, says the paper's Martin Shipton "were last night hopeful it could keep losses in Wales to a minimum on Thursday". In the Labour camp losing some ground isn't too bad, you suppose, when you thought that ground was about to ripped from under your feet.

It's caused Peter Hain, once again, to appeal to Plaid Cymru and Lib Dem supporters to "lend Labour their vote" to keep out the Tories.

I genuinely don't know what we in Wales are about to do when we vote on Thursday. And as a colleague who's been around a good few years longer than I have says, it's the first time in a long time anyone reporting on Welsh politics has said that, a matter of days before a General Election.

So back to the day, that feels so very long ago, when Labour launched their manifesto in the Wales Millennium Centre I asked Peter Hain, the man at the frontline of the Welsh Labour campaign, whether losing some six seats on the night of May 6th would be quite a good night for Labour in Wales, or quite a bad one?

Given every party is out to "win a majority" at the start of every election campaign he's forgiven, I think, for not answering that one. But I do wonder what his answer would be this morning.

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