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I don't play chess - though today, having been out and about yesterday, I'm aware I'm playing catch-up on the story of Yes = £300 million, No = nowt.

Your comments have rehearsed this argument here but given 'making things clear' is, I'm told regularly, part of my job, here's my attempt do lay things out as I see them.

I mentioned chess only because I'm told top chess players win their matches and are revered by all because they've learned that "planlessness is punished". So who exactly, in this scenario, is lacking a plan?

The UK coalition government document says this:

"We recognise the concerns expressed by on the system of devolution funding. However, at this time, the priority must be to reduce the deficit and therefore any change to the system must await the stabilisation of the public finances. Depending on the outcome of the forthcoming referendum, we will establish a process similar to the Calman Commission for the Welsh Assembly".
20 May 2010

Conservative leader Nick Bourne, amongst others, read it like this:

"In terms of specific Welsh points in the document published today, I very much welcome the recognition of concerns raised by the Holtham Commission and, subject to a
referendum yes vote, to take forward a Calman-style commission on funding for Wales."
20 May 2010

And again:

"In terms of specific Welsh points in the document, I very much welcome the recognition of concerns raised by the Holtham Commission and, subject to a referendum yes vote, to take forward a Calman-style commission on funding for Wales."
6 August 2010

Liberal Democrat leader Kirsty Williams made it clear too that the issue of re-considering the way Wales is currently funding is a fundamental issue for her party.

"Making sure that housing powers are devolved to the assembly, supporting further electrification of the railways and setting up a commission to look at funding for Wales are all issues the Welsh Liberal Democrats have been fighting for."
20 May 2010

Then came the Spending Review. The Uk government's plan was laid out again:

"Depending on the outcome of the forthcoming referendum, consideration of the proposals in the final Holtham report, consistent with the work being taken forward in Scotland following the Calman Commission"
20 October 2010

Labour saw their chance - and read it like this. The Conservatives and Liberal Demorats are saying they'd only review the way Wales is funded if there's Yes vote in the referendum. The Holtham Commission has reviewed just that and concluded that Wales should in future get an extra £300 million. The Welsh Conservatives and Welsh Liberal Democrats agree with that analysis. So if there's Yes vote in the referendum, Wales will get an extra £300 million.

As their leaflet, distributed amongst party members over the weekend puts it:

"The Labour-led Assembly commissioned research which shows the current funding formula is wrong - and Wales is being short-changed by £300million. Amazingly the Tories and the Lib Dems have said that this won't be resolved until after a yes vote. That gives us 300 million reasons to campaign for a yes vote on March 3rd."
20 November 2010

Then Danny Alexander, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, came to Cardiff. He said that no, it doesn't. George Osborne has no plans to look at the funding formula until he's sorted out the economy. That might, I think we can safely assume, take some time.

On the other hand the UK government would "respond positively" to a request from Cardiff Bay for borrowing and taxation powers.

It was the turn of , who are campaigning for a No vote in the referendum, to read Mr Alexander's words and see their chance:

"True Wales has continually stated that, while the Barnett formula should be reformed, the commitment to a Calman type inquiry in Coalition Agreement did not with any certainty offer reform of Barnett, but did offer the definite prospect of giving the Welsh Assembly income tax and borrowing powers in event of 'Yes' vote.

"Mr. Alexander yesterday ruled out any changes to the formula, saying that tackling the deficit must take priority. He did, however, state that if there were a "consensus within the Welsh Assembly across the parties in relation to taxation and borrowing" he "would respond positively to that".

"Since the Assembly commissioned Holtham Report, which recommends tax and borrowing powers for the Welsh Assembly, has been warmly welcomed by Assembly members, it is more than likely that a 'Yes' vote in the referendum will bring the prospect of higher taxes on the hard-working people of Wales ever closer".
23 November 2010

Your move, I think, Yes campaigners.

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