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Megaphones at the ready

Brian Taylor | 11:29 UK time, Friday, 4 July 2008

Stand by, mes citoyens. They're coming to get you in Glasgow East - and this time it's electoral.

Look out the snake oil. Dust down the megaphones - those silent ones from the Tory stunt at Holyrood would do splendidly. It's by-election time.

Prepare for the customary blend of unctuousness, bogus indignation and enforced camaraderie that characterises an election campaign.

Ach, I don't mean it, really.

Best of luck to all the candidates. Hope your hustings are packed - and the first question is a patsy.

Hope it doesn't rain too much. Hope every voter tells every one of you that it's in the bag.

The first launch today was . SNP next, then Labour, then the Liberal Democrats. Then such others as might enter the field.

So familiar ground. But there's also a rather different - and intriguing - element to this by-election.

It's a Westminster contest and so, primarily, Labour start on the defensive: facing questions about their record in government.

But Labour intend to return the favour to Scotland's domestic SNP government: spotlighting their record.

From the SNP, then, expect to hear talk of the 10p tax guddle, the changes to incapacity benefit, the cost of food, the cost of fuel.

My guess from touring the constituency is those issues will attract an attentive audience - from those who are prepared to listen to politicians at all, that is.

From Labour, expect a raft of complaints against the SNP government.

Expect them to field a concerned citizen grousing about police numbers. Expect a student complaining about debt. Expect a young couple seeking that promised assistance for first-time home buyers.

Government versus government. Now that is a little different.

On the face of it, the SNP would seem to have the advantage in that particular clash.

The problems associated with the UK Government are causing discontent and grief right now. The Scottish Government remains relatively popular - while the negatives are, so far, sins of omission.

That is, partly, a factor of time: the SNP has been in power for a year, Labour for a decade.

Labour will also counter with a narrative of efforts to improve the East End: featuring, substantially, the coming Commonwealth Games.

Other thoughts. Never forget that Labour starts here with a huge lead.

Secondly, this is not Govan: there is little history of substantive SNP support, except in pockets.

Thirdly, neither the Tories nor the Lib Dems are prepared to concede ground to the second-placed SNP. They will fight hard.

There's another factor at play here which is much more nebulous. There's unhappiness aplenty in this constituency: discontent with the lack of jobs, the prevalence of drugs, the influence of gangs.

But does that turn to anger - or resigned despair?

Anger could provoke voters to turn actively against Labour, even to the extent of generating the 22 per cent swing required for an SNP victory.

The alternative emotion could see Labour, perhaps grudgingly, returned.

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