´óÏó´«Ã½

A day to go until John Swinney publishes his draft budget - and the statistical squabbling is well under way.

From the Scottish Government, indications that the budget to be announced by Mr Swinney will represent a real terms cut: the first since devolution.

Aha, says the Scotland Office, but that is only because you, Swinney J., opted to bring forward £347m of capital expenditure from 2010/11 - and now have to account for that expenditure.

Other than that, says the SO, there would have been a slight real terms increase in the money available for 10/11 compared with 09/10.

That calculation includes the "efficiency savings" ordered by the UK Government.
Hang on, says the SG. You call them "efficiency savings". We call them cuts.

Plus the acceleration of capital spending was in line with a composite strategy to attempt to revive the ailing economy. Further acceleration is needed.

Let's cut to the chase here. This is a collective challenge for Holyrood. One way or another, our MSPs have to deal with a relatively tight budget, however that sum was reached.

Further, in subsequent years, that constraint will become tighter still. Read Gordon Brown's lips. There is no new spending.

It is understandable that, in advance, the parties squabble over who is to blame. It is understandable that they seek electoral advantage.

However, I fully expect that, such endeavours exhausted, they will get down to the job of matching demand to supply with regard to public sector spending in Scotland.

At this stage, it does not look like that will be accomplished via the cross-party mechanism prompted by the Liberal Democrats.

You will remember that part of the LibDem price for endorsing the previous Swinney budget was a new system whereby other parties would be consulted at an earlier stage over the details.

There have been only two meetings of the new cross-party steering group - and none in recent weeks. In effect - although this will meet adamant denials from some - the mechanism is in suspense.

For three reasons. One, governments like to govern. They tend to want to control their own budgets as much as possible, even when in a minority in Parliament.

Two, Labour in particular harboured a lingering suspicion that they might be sucked into endorsing Mr Swinney's plans without full sight of government documents.

Three, there was a concern abroad at Holyrood that cross-party bargaining might cut across the open, constitutional scrutiny of the budget which is undertaken by Parliament's finance committee.

So, in reality, we're back to the status quo ante. John Swinney will publish his budget - and proclaim that he's protected Scotland from the worst of the Westminster cuts.
Opponents will claim that he's got his priorities wrong.

There will then be protracted negotiation. The revised budget will, eventually, be endorsed.

No complaints here about process. That's politics. Parliamentary politics.

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• |
• |
• - What's this?