´óÏó´«Ã½

Is it too late to wish you all a guid New Year in this, my first blog outing of 2011? No? Duly wished, then, duly wished.

In any case, I celebrated an anniversary of my own only yesterday. My latest birthday.
Such turns of the tide have left me in contemplative mood.

That plus the fact that the very few Dundee United players who are not ill, injured or suspended contrived to generate mighty little of note in the weekend cup game against our old rivals, Ross County.

"Old rivals" in the sense that we also played them in the last United game I truly enjoyed, the Scottish Cup Final.

Our MSPs, who return to their legislating toil this week, face a stern competitive test of their own in the near future: the Holyrood elections.

Not a knock-out, though, more a protracted, iterative, incremental champions league - where there can be prizes for second, third or even fourth place, depending on coalition talks.

The current visit by the Chinese vice-premier Li Keqiang is a potent reminder of what can be on offer - as he endorses a significant renewable energy deal with Scotland, with more to come.

Securing the prize

The holder of the office of first minister can do stuff, both at home and in overseas links.

To govern is to choose. But it is also to influence, to persuade, to spend, to drive, to direct. It is a prize worth having.

Hence the eagerness of the sundry contenders to secure that prize - and hence the emergence of several competing and interconnected narratives.

Already, there has been some excitement over the fact that Alex Salmond and Iain Gray have criticised each other personally.

From memory, Mr Salmond said that Mr Gray wasn't very good and Mr Gray said something rude about Mr Salmond's hat.

This, we are solemnly assured, means that the contest in the spring (ah, blessed, snow free season) will be down there and dirty, the downest and dirtiest since, well, the last one.

It is, of course, perfectly sensible and reasonable for the chief contenders for the office of FM to target each other directly.

Holyrood matters

A political leader is not an automaton, churning out sections of the party manifesto in strictly timed, digestible bites. He or she must respond to events as they arise.

So character, talent and personality matter. Even headgear.

Politics, of course, is overlapping. This will not be an election dominated purely by devolved, Holyrood issues.

On which topic, I recall being witness to a conversation in which an MP and an MSP of the same party were gently chiding each other over the extent to which each parliament influenced the other.

The MP was muttering that his voters were endlessly complaining to him about health, education and the like: matters determined by Holyrood.

Aye, replied his devolved chum, but at least we didn't fight a war while you were facing an election.

So this Holyrood contest will be, inevitably, affected by matters directed or heavily influenced by Westminster.

Scottish budget

Two, in particular. The broad economy/public spending. And the constitution/Scotland Bill.

Of the two, I would suggest that the former is more likely to be uppermost in the minds of non-partisan voters.

But the SNP will seek to draw a link between the two.

The Greens have already set out their position in a submission related to the Scottish budget.

They say that innovative, progressive ways of raising revenue, such as a Land Tax, should be explored.

If this is to be a Westminster-influenced contest, then that would appear to place the Liberal Democrats at a starting disadvantage.

Their role and actions in the UK coalition have not left them, shall we say, universally popular.

Local targeting

Indeed, Nick Clegg is fast becoming a target of easy, instant satire: a position he, naturally, hopes and requires to remedy.

In Scotland, the autonomous LibDem leader Tavish Scott can do four things: stress the devolved nature of this campaign, majoring on devolved issues; cite the good things he believes the coalition has done; disavow his Westminster colleagues where necessary; and rely heavily upon local targeting.

With regard to the UK coalition, the Scottish Tory narrative is rather different.

Annabel Goldie will stress that she is running her own campaign, on Scottish issues. But she will firmly endorse David Cameron's approach.

She will say that a tough approach is required with regard to public spending. She will attempt to turn potentially unpopular policies - such as retaining prescription charges - to her advantage by arguing that a weary, sceptical public will welcome straight talking.

There will be, as she told me in an interview for ´óÏó´«Ã½ Radio 4, broadcast during the Festive Season, an absence of "bull***t."

By contrast again, Labour is presently liberated from the constraints and responsibilities of government, both at Westminster and Holyrood.

'Broken' promises

Without ministerial actions to defend, expect Iain Gray to attack.

He will argue that the spending cuts laid down by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are being amplified in agony by economic decisions taken by the SNP at Holyrood.

He will argue further that the SNP has broken key promises, for example in education.

It is, if you like, a single transferable attack.

It will be allied to Labour policies such as a national care service and a Scottish future jobs fund.

But it would be little surprise if the predominant narrative is one that involves the alleged failure of Labour's rivals.

Do not be surprised if, in return, those rivals seek to source the economic recession in the Labour UK years.

As billed above, the SNP will construct a multi-faceted narrative.

Everyday concerns

Alex Salmond will argue that his governance has been successful, particularly given the constraints laid down by minority status.

He will argue that his government has sought to protect the hard-pressed, for example through the council tax freeze.

Mr Salmond will argue that it is only through fiscal autonomy and independence that Scotland will gain the clout to revive the economy: thereby, he hopes, linking in the voters' minds the constitutional question and everyday financial concerns.

And he will argue that, person for person, his front bench offer is better than that deployed by Labour.

Should be fascinating.

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• - What's this?