´óÏó´«Ã½

Isn't that an intriguing opinion survey in The Times, suggesting that the SNP may have regained a narrow lead over Labour, their main rivals for Holyrood support?

The observant among you will have noticed the cautious tone in the above lines: "may", "suggesting".

Those of us who lived through the 1992 General Election exit poll developed and have maintained an intuitive caution towards such tests of public opinion.

So why do I mention this poll when I have not mentioned other surveys indicating a Labour lead?

Because the very nature of the apparent switch will, of itself, affect the election preparations.

It will energise the SNP campaign, providing an external stimulus to a team reliant, until now, upon internally generated confidence.

Further, it will remind the Labour campaign that they can take nothing for granted. Not, I suspect, that they needed much reminding.

Health warnings

These effects are despite the health warnings which attach to all polls - including this one by Ipsos MORI with a sample size of 1,000, conducted between 10 and 13 February.

Those warnings? Polls are just that: samples, snapshots. On this sample size, they carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

Further, individual polls can be "rogue", remote from trend. They can, in short, be wrong. Perhaps badly wrong.

But they may be right. They may be partly right. They may be the first indication of an emerging trend.

That level of uncertainty argues for caution in interpreting polls: particularly an individual survey and, even more particularly, one which appears to depart markedly from the trend elsewhere.

Still, the findings will be eagerly scanned in sundry campaign HQs.

Intriguing, no more, no less.

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• - What's this?