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As it was Scottish banks that played such a starring role in getting the economy into this almighty mess, it has been assumed that Scotland will suffer disproportionately badly.

The nation's foremost economic think tank said as much in its four-monthly analysis and forecast published last November.

But in the latest Fraser of Allander Institute commentary published today - the first since the credit crunch got seriously crunchy - its economists have changed their collective mind.

They argue the recession is now primarily a problem of a shortage of aggregate demand for goods and services.

The shortage of credit has ceased to be the primary characteristic of the slump, goes this argument, but is now only exacerbating the problems.

Finance may no longer drag Scotland below the performance of other parts of the UK. Indeed, it may be that some of the back office operations, which Scots do well and at competitive rates, are actually moving to Scotland rather than getting wound down by the nation's chastened, bonus-starved bank bosses.

So once again, there is some evidence that the Scottish economy may weather the storm relatively well - relative, that is, to some very heavy weather to be found elsewhere.

And further such evidence comes from the Council of Mortgage Lenders this morning, telling us that Scottish lending is down by 40%, but that's not as much as the rest of the UK, while its share of the UK's new lending is up.

Whatever the relative position, the raw figures remain sobering. The Fraser of Allander reckoning (no relation, by the way) is that the slowdown will be the most severe since the 1980s, and possibly worse than that.

Its forecast involves three scenarios, the central one of which puts last year's unemployment up by 14,200. This year, it's on course to rise by 94,200 and next year by 51,400.

In 2011, it would then pick up 3,000 new jobs and get back into healthier territory in 2012, with 14,500 more.

The impact would be to push total unemployment from 137,000 at the end of 2008 up to a peak of 210,000 in 2010, or 7.9% of the workforce.

That foresees nearly 160,000 job losses over three years. The worse case scenario would put 32,000 on top of that, with jobs growth waiting until 2012 to return.

Compare that with the way things looked to the Fraser of Allander team in November, when the central estimate, at 53,000 lost jobs over three years, was less than a third of the figure they now expect, and when the growth by 2012 looked much stronger than it does now.

What about the growth figures? In November, they reckoned on this year being the sole year of contraction, by 1.1%.

Today, it looks more like 2.6% contraction this year and 1.2% next year, with only 0.5% growth in 2011. The worse case scenario would keep Scotland in recession through 2011 before anaemic growth in 2012.

The relatively strong position of the Scottish economy is not only down to a reassessment of the damage that could be caused by its dependence on finance jobs.

It is also that Scotland is less exposed to the effects of the assets bubble bursting, not having become quite so irrationally exuberant as southern England, that it has a larger public sector and more dependence on welfare payments.

The commentary takes a look at responses to the recession, and concludes that the SNP administration's six-point plan can only have a "negligible" effect on the macro-economic picture.

There's no surprise there, as Holyrood doesn't have significant powers over macro-economic policy.

And the fiscal stimulus from the Westminster administration, despite giving a fillip to demand of about 2% of national income, is seen as "too little too late", particularly when compared with the United States' efforts.

There are recommendations for Alex Salmond's government. It could try using its clout as a very large customer, using those contracts to require more pro-active lending by the banks in Scotland.

Fraser of Allander also suggests short-term but intense training courses for those coming onto the unemployment register, while assisting redundant workers in starting their own firms.

I recall hearing about such a scheme at Ravenscraig, when the steelworks closed 17 years ago. Left to the market, many of the workers signed up to one attractive-sounding retraining course.

The result was that Motherwell became a world centre for small-scale travel agents, but with the market glutted, it was for a short period only.