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Mervyn's choppy waters

Douglas Fraser | 11:46 UK time, Wednesday, 11 August 2010

Inflation estimates matter, because people plan on them, whereas so many other bits of economic data are pointers to where we've just been.

If the Bank of England says inflation is going to stay above its 2% target throughout next year, then dipping and staying low - as its governor, Mervyn King, has done this morning, with a stress on uncertainty and "a choppy recovery" - there are lots of people then make their investment and hiring plans on that basis.

But what if it's wrong? That matters too, particularly if it's consistently wrong. And the track record of the Bank of England's growth and inflation forecasts is an unhappy one of misjudging the path of the downturn.

If the central bank's guidance loses credibility in its forecasting, business leaders and trade unions will make their own assumptions about inflation, aided and abetted by more pessimistic analysis.

They will do so while believing the agency with the task of keeping inflation under control is behind the curve and therefore not taking adequate action. That is a dangerous place for the British economy to be.

Jobs slack

Trade unions can be important in this, in that they play a role in negotiating pay rates. It's not a strong role while the labour market is so weak. They have a much stronger role in the public sector than the private one, so they may be about to take a more prominent role.

That recruitment weakness is part of the Bank of England's reckoning - that a slack jobs market will keep wage inflation low, and hence the broader measures of inflation.

It's also trying to gauge how much spare capacity there is in the economy. That's tricky in this recession partly because many employers went unusually far in trying to hang on to skilled staff, often with shorter working hours, so that they'll be there for the upturn.

That factor could lead to what is becoming known in the US as a jobless recovery: growth expands, but not by soaking up the large numbers of unemployed.

Uncertain mood music

Those uncertainties are conceded in the highly uncertain outlook we've got today from the Bank of England. It continues to explain its problems in controlling inflation by reference to commodity price volatility (now returning?) and a VAT change which was announced 20 months ago along with a scheduled withdrawal more than seven months ago.

Against that backdrop, and a strong theme of uncertainty, the mood music is around interest rates staying very low, and a return to quantitative easing - or creating new money - being under more serious consideration.

That's the direction in which the US Federal Reserve went yesterday, while on the fiscal side, Congress splurged more borrowed money - $26bn of it - on state governments, to avoid massive lay-offs of their teachers and police officers.

You've got to pity the Bank of England. The spread of possible outcomes is a very wide one, because it is in the same uncharted territory as the rest of us.

In particular, because it's unprecedented, no-one is quite sure what the future impact will be of the £200bn in new money, or quantitative easing, which the bank pumped into the economy, ending last February.

That money seems to be sitting on bank and corporates' balances rather than boosting the supply of credit. And with so much slack in the economy, it doesn't seem to have had a clear impact on the inflation figures.

But there are those, including at least one voice in the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, who warn that its inflationary risks should be taken more seriously, and soon.

It could be that the Bank of England's new money is like all that oil that gushed from BP's Deepwater Horizon well in the Gulf of Mexico.

We've learned this week that much of the sticky stuff seems to have disappeared - perhaps evaporated, perhaps dispersed into the ocean. Or perhaps gigantic globules of it are lurking beneath the surface, ready to spring some very nasty surprises.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Inflation is growing and will continue to grow, this is not caused by workers demanding pay increases, this is a symptom. The BOE opened the flood gates to fill the bank vaults as they had run out of money due to their bad gambling habit.
    trouble is their bad gambling habit has just been covered up. Interest rates have been dropped to near zero to try and take the pressure off the amount of interest charged on the money slopping about in mortgages of over priced housing, commercial property, government projects like PFI etc etc and the money lent to the banks to prop up their addiction to CDO's and the likes.

    The pound has devalued against the dollar the worlds currency is buying raw materials for manufacturing, for importing goods from China etc, for oil so all the things the UK buys is more expensive THAT is inflation because the pound is worth less in out pockets. Every supplier I deal with has put their prices up, I in turn have to pass that on (even though much of the increase is absorbed and means I make less money prices go up. My customer then has to increase their prices and so on, not because they make more profit but they have a certain margin that has to be made to pay for the costs of running the business , wages, insurance, tax, vat, fuel etc etc.

    Our weekly shopping basket is the same most weeks and it is getting more and more expensive by the week, I dont see the minimal wage rises being given to some covering the increased costs.

    My money I have saved in the bank is earning less now that it was 2 years ago, less than 1% yet inflation is 4-5% so not only is it costing me more for goods and services, but my money is devaluing in the bank, whilst they lend it out on very strict terms for north of 9%, or on credit cards at 19% or store cards at 29%.

    The banks have effectively cooked the books to show the profits they have against the liabilities they have according to the new Basle3 rules, you could be forgiven for calling them liars rules.

    the targets the BOE set for growth were equal to the growth figures when the economy was supposed to be booming, now we are in the midst of a depression how the BOE and the other crowd that keep getting referenced can say we can achieve the same levels of growth is impossible mathematically.

    Bottom line is the banks are bust, let for sake of argument say they were not, it only pushes the line out further for the ponzi scheme that has been run for the last 30 years or so.

    Even if the country defaulted they would only look upon it as an opportunity to start the whole thing up again.

    I think it is all irrelevant anyway, the US is going to explode in spectacular style, its unavoidable with the deficit they are running the amount of debt they have so whatever the UK government do it makes no odds.

    I spoke to my accountant today (he works for a big accountancy practise) their take is we are heading for Japan territory, a zombie 20 years, yet the UK without the false profits of the city of London and even with the oil revenues comes no where close, Japan were a nation of savers, the UK has nothing like it.

    What is coming will make the great depression look like a mild summers day, its what happens after that is important in the way it is decided to run a sustainable economy without rigged markets, corrupt politicians , businesses , countries and individuals.

    Stock up on the iron bru and the haggis there's a huge storm coming.



  • Comment number 2.

    When any News relating to UK Unemployment Figures hits the News, we alway get two very different Pictures both between North and South of the Boarder, and the further differences between the South East of England and the rest of the England along with a East and West split between some parts of England, while depending upon how good or bad the Unemployment figures are in Wales also depends very much as to whether this count is also included or not in any one particular Quarters results in passing.

    When listening to the National News upon ITN we are informed this Month, that Unemployment combined across England and Wales is falling, while in Scotland it is Rising.
    While again likewise, when listening to the Local South East ITV Regional News covering the Meridian Area we hear that in this Area alone People are now worring as like in Scotland, about rising Unemployment due to the fact that most of the Jobs being advertised in the South-East of England are being taken-up for Short-Term Seasonal Employment Posts only, while the rest of us are having to try too understand what this ALL means in relation to the UK as a whole, for the next future Quarter Period in the current Environment, also to the further up-coming Medium to Long - Term future.

    Therefore, the fear of rising Unemployment is being felt albeit, in different ways right across and throughout the UK however much any Spin upon any reductions of the Unemployments Figures are Claimed by Government and other Independent Experts.

    For you would need and require a Bank of England Expert in every Town and Village across the UK, producing Local Fiscal Models of some merit including also in Scotland to advise the UK Treasury of prevailing conditions before arriving fully at any understanding of which direction in the future the UK as a whole was going, along with Double-Dips etc.

    But then again, by the time it would take anyone too arrive at any overall UK wide National Picture of Unemployment and the fear of any future further Unemployment, these Pictures would be out of Date due to the way current events are becoming fast moving from now onwards as a whole in the many Cross-Sections of the combined UK's Economy to really be able to fully ascertain any real stable and reliable workable Data.

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