´óÏó´«Ã½

All that talk of green shoots of recovery was so last spring. Signs of economic upturn now have an autumnal chill about them.

And that's because of what auditor general Robert Black told me last week will be a "long hard financial winter" in the public sector.

Much of the economic evidence that's been mixed and a bit muddled this year now points in one direction, and it's to the comprehensive spending review next week.

Even after calling for a levelling of the playing field between public and private sector, business is now worried that the speed of the change could destabilise the whole economy.

Pricewaterhouse Coopers spelled out the extent of the spread from public austerity to private grief, with a calculation of one job in thirty being at risk.

At least one third of that looks like private employment, either through scaling back government contracts or the impact of public sector workers (and, don't forget, benefit beneficiaries) having less to spend - or the fear of less to spend.

Battered and bruised

It sees business services as being the worst hit sector - though it's such a large and diverse sector, it's not clear what that tells you.

Construction looks like taking a harsh hit, yet again.

Office supplies and defence are on course to take the largest proportional hits, with office machinery and computers down by a forecast 27% of output.

The Scottish Chambers of Commerce has something similar to say today, from its quarterly survey of 250 member companies.

The construction sector, already battered and bruised, looks grim, as government contracts face the squeeze.

Its industry body, the Scottish Housing Federation, has issued a last-minute plea to UK Chancellor George Osborne, with a warning of 47,000 job losses.

That's a lot more than PwC suggests.

It's based on the notion that 1,200 jobs are lost for each percentage point cut in the capital budget, with 40% likely to go over the next five years.

If that alarming figure comes true, it would mean slightly more job losses in construction than have gone through the downturn so far.

Deep discounting

Distribution feels it's going in the wrong direction, and while the supermarkets do all right, retail in general hasn't looked this bad for nearly two years.

Tourism is an interesting one, as it seemed to have a good downturn, benefiting from the weak pound and staycationing.

The Chambers' survey found this summer has not hit expectations.

Rooms may get reasonable occupancy (another survey from PKF bears that out this week), but there's less being spent in bars and restaurants and demand for conference and functions is very weak, amid tales of deep discounting.

Fourth quarter recruitment doesn't look so good, unless you're a chef.

Perhaps the most disturbing finding from the Chambers survey, carried out with the Fraser of Allander Institute at Strathclyde, is that manufacturing has now joined in the gloom.

Manufacturing matters, not least in being the key to an export-led recovery.

It's been doing relatively well, with exports holding up well.

But it's now joining every other sector surveyed, to reflect the worst outlook since the start of last year.

Cost pressures are hurting, there's more spare capacity, investment is only for replacement, research and development is weak, jobs are being shed.

It's also warning of the worst exports picture since the banking crunch, since when global trade nose-dived and has fast recovered.

More on exports today, when the Scottish government puts out its latest figures.

Incessant talk of cuts

It's worth noting that the Chambers' survey focusses on the optimists against the pessimists, and tends to ignore the size of the group in the middle, who see things as stable.

That group can be quite large in some parts of these surveys.

That factor can also skew the interpretation of the Purchasing Managers Index, issued these days by the Bank of Scotland.

That September survey said (published earlier this week), that private sector activity, across service and manufacturing sectors, has gone into reverse for the first time in 15 months.

Recruitment was up, and by more than the UK rate, but only very slightly.

The best of the findings was in new orders coming through.

Better news, too, on the unemployment benefit claimant count falling in September, even though the broader unemployment measure for job seekers between June and August was sharply up, with the divergence from the rest of the UK worsening.

The Scottish Chambers of Commerce say the incessant talk of cuts is the cause of all the business gloom, and that George Osborne's allocation of funding next Wednesday should lift the uncertainty and allow people to plan for growth.

You have to admire the optimism amid all this, but it's not clear why.

The spending review should, indeed, remove uncertainty, but only to bring the certainty of this process hitting hard next spring, and continuing for at least four years of rapid adjustment.