Vaccination, antivirals and some respite
After several weeks' absence, I was delighted to see that the discussion has continued at Fergus On Flu. I haven't read all your comments yet, but I am really pleased that the blog has become established as a forum for discussion on an issue that now appears only sporadically in the media.
I had a very good break - and encountered no H1N1 swine flu - and then filmed some news stories, so I have not been on holiday all this time! Many thanks for your kind wishes and for continuing the conversation.
A few issues which emerged while I've been away:
• First, vaccination policy on H1N1 swine flu. The decision to this autumn was no surprise and had been widely predicted. Holding back from a wider immunisation campaign at this stage is interesting. Limiting the vaccine to at-risk groups will still create a huge logistical problem for the health service which will also be immunising the elderly and the vulnerable this autumn. I anticipate some public confusion about who is eligible for what.
• Another interesting development concerned . This questioned the policy of giving Tamiflu or Relenza to otherwise healthy children who catch the H1N1 virus. The research suggested that the side-effects outweighed the benefits, but was based on seasonal flu, not on H1N1 swine flu. It seems to me that the research raises important issues, but is not a definitive study or the final word on whether antivirals should be available to all.
• Finally, as many had hoped, the incidence of flu has dropped sharply in August. This gives the NHS - and us all - some respite. The question now is: when will cases start to rise? I suggest looking to Scotland, where children are heading back to school well before those in England and Wales (see also ´óÏó´«Ã½ Northern Ireland's ). If Scotland experiences a sudden increase in cases in the coming few weeks, then a similar surge can be expected elsewhere in the UK.
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