Libya: Decision time for Europe
The diplomatic moves over Libya gather pace.
Days of meetings lie ahead: Nato, the EU heads of government, the Arab League and possibly the UN again. There is an urgency that was lacking ten days ago. The belief then was that Col Gaddafi's support was crumbling. Now his forces are on the offensive.
The Libyan leader, aware that the international community is moving against him, has despatched envoys to several European capitals to argue against measures such as no-fly zones.
Before the EU summit, the British and German governments have called for a declaration that EU governments will not work or co-operate with Col Gaddafi. Once again they have explicitly called for him to step aside.
So what will be discussed - particularly at the summit in Brussels on Friday?
No-fly zone
It is not up to the EU to implement a no-fly zone, but it will be discussed. The consensus in Europe just a few days ago was that a no-fly zone needed a clear UN resolution. Every European government agreed that such a step needed a clear legal basis.
Securing a UN resolution may be difficult. Russia is against, China is reluctant and Brazil remains to be convinced.
Increasingly, however, some foreign ministers are arguing that a UN resolution may not be needed. It would be sufficient, they argue, if Libya's neighbours called for a no-fly zone. The wants it. So too, probably, do and the African Union. It would be helpful to have on board. Support from these bodies might give the West cover to act.
The American administration is divided. It is sending out conflicting signals. But without Washington the no-fly zone won't happen. There are some indications that President Obama is inching towards supporting the UK and France, who are most clearly in favour of policing Libyan airspace.
Washington remains wary of using its military in another Middle East country. "The ghosts of Bush and Blair are hanging over the war," said .
Questions that may be asked over the next few days:
Can a no-fly zone be operated without killing Libyans?
Probably not. As soon as they turn on their air defence systems they will have to be destroyed. Col Gaddafi will use any attack as a propaganda moment to reveal the West killing Arabs.
Do the rebels want a no-fly zone?
Initially they didn't, but the opposition loosely based in Benghazi has changed its position. What they don't want is military intervention. They are strongly opposed to outsiders getting involved.
Will a no-fly zone make a difference?
Hard to say. Almost certainly it will deter Col Gaddafi's pilots from flying. But in the battles so far the planes have not been decisive. Some bombings have been so inaccurate that the rebels questioned whether the pilots were missing their targets deliberately. Arms depots have been hit, but the full force of air power has not been used against civilians. A no-fly zone would prevent mercenary reinforcements from reaching Tripoli by air.
The mood among members of the European Parliament seems to be strongly in favour of operating such a zone. Liberal leader Guy Verhofstadt said an air exclusion zone "should have been decided on long ago". The Greens have said that the test of the summit is to prevent Col Gaddafi from winning.
There is another question: whether the EU or Nato can share intelligence with the opposition or even supply it with weapons. That point probably has not been reached.
Sanctions
The EU has already frozen the assets of 26 Libyans including the Gaddafi family. There is a visa ban against them too. Almost certainly European leaders will extend sanctions to include the Libyan Investment Authority, which manages Libyan oil.
The authority manages a $70bn sovereign fund to invest in prominent European companies. The sanctions may well extend to Libya's central bank. The hope is that this will squeeze Gaddafi's ability to finance his military operations. It also sends a powerful signal to the Libyan government that they are outcasts.
The German government has ordered a freeze on bank accounts held by the Libyan central bank.
Economic assistance
The EU sees the upheavals in North Africa as a defining moment. It wants to use its economic power to encourage democracy and to kick-start the economies of countries like Tunisia and Egypt. The British want to see a strengthening of economic co-operation and an opening of markets.
There is talk of setting up a fund to strengthen political parties, to build an independent judiciary and to bolster civil institutions. Other ideas relate to training young people.
Some want a reduction in tariffs. Most North African countries already have preferential access to EU markets. But some EU countries - like Spain, Italy, Portugal and France - will be reluctant to lower tariffs on agricultural imports.
The EU Commission has a 6bn-euro plan to support democratic reform in North Africa. There will be a stick and carrot approach. Countries that strongly embrace moves towards democracy will get more of the money.
Some like , speaking for the Socialists and Democrats, want the EU to embrace the equivalent of a Marshall Plan "on a scale that matches the historic nature of the changes we are seeing". He points out that the United States committed 1% of its GDP to get Europe on its feet again after World War II. Now, in an age of austerity, it may prove hard to persuade the voters that such sums should be spent in North Africa.
Humanitarian assistance
This won't be contentious. The EU is always happier discussing soft power. The planes of the UK and France have already been flying refugees back to Egypt. There will be discussion of whether to send in food (if needed) and medical supplies to rebel-held areas like Benghazi. The EU will want to be seen acting if large numbers of Libyans begin fleeing a civil war. That has not happened so far.
Recognising the rebels
The nearest the rebels have to a leadership is the Libyan Interim Council. Some in Europe would like the EU to recognise the Council. President Sarkozy has jumped the gun by recognising the rebels. Others may follow. It may be harder at EU level as the EU recognises states. It is also far from clear what centres of power may emerge later. But there are already meetings with the Libyan Council and those will be strengthened in the period ahead.
Migration
This is hugely sensitive for the EU. There is little or no argument about helping those fleeing fighting. The more sensitive question relates to those who use the instability to move to Europe for work. Some - like the Greens - want "legitimate refugees to be given safe havens in Europe". But other countries will be reluctant to admit new arrivals when unemployment at 10% is so high in the eurozone. The key question here is whether economic migrants will be allowed to stay. Col Gaddafi knows how this matters to Europe's voters. He said only yesterday "you will have immigration - thousands of people from Libya will invade Europe. There will be no one to stop this any more".
In all of this, Europe will need some humility. It supported and traded with many of the region's tyrants. These webs of influence are only now coming to the surface. The big question is whether the EU's newly-found support for democratic change will trump economic interests, particularly the need for oil and gas.
The role of Britain
Prime Minister David Cameron has surprised observers with his robust approach towards Libya. Some have described him as the "heir to Blair" in his desire for robust action. He supports a no-fly zone which would involve planes from the US, the UK and France. What David Cameron sees is a decisive opportunity to be on the side of those who want freedom, rather than supporting autocratic leaders.
We can expect that Cameron and Hague will be at the forefront in pushing for the strongest measures over Libya and North Africa in general.
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