Crystal-ball gazing
My New Year predictions have been almost entirely wrong for as long as I can remember. Two years ago, I suggested on the ´óÏó´«Ã½ Correspondents' Lookahead that , the and Iranian leader, would kiss the cheek of on the tarmac at Tehran airport; a year ago, I said Dick Cheney would resign and be replaced by .
But, like a gambler, I feel the need to press on in the hope of hitting the jackpot.
This year in the lookahead programme, I predicted that John McCain would be and that the American brand would be back in vogue, or at least would no longer be so widely regarded as poisonous. The first prediction could, of course, be dead by the end of the first month of 2008 - which would be a record even by my dismal standards - but the second will take all year and maybe leach into 2009 as well.
I predict an improvement in America's worldwide reputation with only moderate confidence (to borrow from the argot of the ) but, if it is to happen at all, I believe it should begin in this week, where groups of essentially decent, mild, kindly people will of choosing the 2008 winner.
Iowa is flawed, of course. The are a rum bunch on both sides and the voters (too white, too religious, too old, too extreme, you take your pick) are similarly open to attack, but it is nonetheless worth pausing, I reckon, before it all kicks off, to reflect that in a nation of 300 million people, bristling with and at war around the world, managing an orderly transition of power is a majestic enterprise, worthy of ongoing wonderment.
The , Dr Rowan Williams, suggested recently that Western society was itself flawed. Those who agree with him will be tut-tutting as the American election process gets going in all its meretricious glory but, along with the self-doubt, a little bit of self-confidence might be no bad thing among Western democrats in 2008.
However much the souls of Iowans are eaten away (according to the archbishop's view), I would prefer to be ruled by them than any other group on earth...
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While agreeing with the Archbishop of Canterbury, I would also say 'Amen' to your final sentence IF the damage done by the last 2 scarily corrupt elections can be overcome. If not, might you possibly loan us Parliament and the Queen for a decade or two?
Sheila: Will Prince Philip and Tony Blair do?
The vast majority of the world's population (including myself) are quick to critise the US - particularly with regards to its foreign policy - while conveniently forgetting its inately decent, kindly and generous heart.
Sadly, one of the few perogatives the weak have over the strong is to hate them...
Since by improvement in the American "brand" you essentially mean America juking Left, then no. Not very likely to happen in 2008.
America is about one third hard Right, one third hard Left, and one third milling about in the middle susceptible to the intellectual pressure of a really good bumpersticker slogan.
Figuring out who will get each party's nomination is a matter of working out what the partisans want.
Figuring out where general elections are going to go is a matter of working out where those people in the middle are going to cast their lot.
So, McCain might have a chance in the general election if he ever got there, but he won't. Rank and file Republicans hate him with a flaming passion. Remember that "maverick" means "sticks his thumb in the eye of his own party with distressing frequency."
I guess all predictions are out the window owing to the assignation of B.B. in Pakistan. As the perceived problems in Iraq/Iran will pale by comparison….going to need one hell of a crystal ball now!!
Dear Justin Webb: As an American, I sincerely hope your prediction for the coming year is right, but have my doubts. The departure of Bush and Cheney has the potential to improve US world relations, but there is no guarantee their successors will be able to reverse the grievous harm they have done. And January 2009 is still a long way off. At times during the past seven years, the US has veered dangerously close to fascist dictatorship. Don't celebrate yet.
Throw in Sir Elton John and its a deal.
heck maybe some EU election monitors in Ohio, Florida and Penn state...
I overall don't like the primary process, especially this election cycle's front-loaded primaries, but at least the smaller population rural states make the politicians interact with citizens on a personal level. It allows citizens to take some measure of the candidate as a human being rather than a 30 second talking head. Flawed for sure but it has that for compensation.
Massachusetts, US
Considering what the transition of power looks like in most places in the world (think most of Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle-East) your sentiment is correct and should be the one example the rest of the world takes from America.
and contrary to popular notion money in great amounts
is not required witness Gov Huckabee
Massachusetts USA
"However much the souls of Iowans are eaten away (according to the archbishop's view), I would prefer to be ruled by them than any other group on earth."
Indeed so, if only we were ruled by the Iowans, instead of by the US elite, which is far weirder and more out of touch with reality than the average American voter.
Whether Coke or Pepsi wins is irrelevant. The endless wars will continue.
Copenhagen
We are a seriously damaged government, right, left and straight down the middle.
Our campaigns are too long and the election process is very flawed. At this time many voters are re-registering as independents because the Republicans and the Democrats seem to be staging these campaigns for one another, not caring what the "people" are saying or what they want.
PLEASE...if McCain even makes it through the conventions in tact, there will be a lot of people leaving the USA, and I will be one of them.
How, pray tell, can a man who fought in Vietnam and was held as a POW, vote as a senator to deny veterans benefits, ignore the plight of families of military men and women serving in Iraq and Afghanistan who are loosing their homes and living on welfare? He is not presidential material.
If Ron Paul is elected our image will improve. If not, save a Revolution, all is lost.
The teaser chosen for the ´óÏó´«Ã½'s homepage is no suprise to those in the US. It may be well to remember that we are a nation that was forged in war, with all it's concerns.
Regardless of the pundits, I believe that we remain optomistic not only as our birthright but a natural trait born and bred in this experiment that is democracy.
Our process may be messy, cumbersome, and at times confounding to view, but it has given generations opportunity to refocus the nation upon the issues of the times and move forward. With due respect to the Archbishop, if he and his entire confederation were to embrace and engage the modern world I expect the world would be a much better place.
You're already forgiven for being wrong--after all, it's brave to make the prediction. I drove around Iowa during a 3-week break from grad school in Iowa City. I attended a church service, visited cemeteries (Iowa's are universally well-maintained), and bemoaned the lack of landmarks--it's so flat that you actually have to pay attention to street signs (if you get lost in Denver, just point yourself towards or away from the mountains). It's hard to believe I didn't stick with a subscription to Ahmajinadad's blog. Now there's a guy who is "too religious."
I hope the fact that I live in Buenos Aires will not disqualify my application for ´óÏó´«Ã½ North America editor.
This is the "everybody knows" election. It's only the reporting of this election that is beyond anyone's ken.
Everybody knows that the Democrats will post enormous gains in November ...with the only question mark being how many seats will they pickup.
Although I am not a Hillary Clinton supporter, I am struck dumb by the way the press has pretended from the beginning that an inexperienced Barack Obama or a perennial John Edwards will have any effect on her attaining the White House. Along with that, add the lack of reporting on how historic it will be that a woman will be elected President for the first time in the US and how we are probably looking at the making of the first black US President and I'm truly through the looking glass.
While the Republican presidential contenders are interesting as a sideshow, their party is in complete disarray and the real story is what percentage of GOP voters will actually show up at the polls.
This year's presidential election is truly boring and appears to have been created out of whole cloth by opinion writers.
This year will be an old-fashioned rout but I suppose it would be impossible to fill months if not years of reportage with that.
the us should have a version of the PM's questions for congress. Bush and every other future President should be forced to do this. It would really make the American government more open. EU advisers would not be a bad idea either. Also we should re3ject Hillary, the ninteis were not great and she is in the pocket of the corporations. it is time to say no to the house of Bush and the House of Clinton. We fought a war of independence over 200 years go to end tyranny and the dominance of government by a few. Let's not throw it all away just because Hillary is inevitable.
"I would prefer to be ruled by them than any other group on earth"
Our system, despite the complaints, works quite well. I can think of no other that I'd prefer to live under.
"In a nation of 300 million people, bristling with military power and at war around the world, managing an orderly transition of power is a majestic enterprise."
I will quibble and say that it should be, ought to be, a majestic enterprise. Have you been to the US recently? Majestic is hardly in the top 100 words that I would choose to describe the American electoral process. Out of thousands of questions asked of the candidates (including "Pearls or diamonds, Mrs. Clinton?"), only 24 have concerned the global climate, according to League of Conservation voters. My guess is that fewer have concerned the free fall of the dollar. And if even one question dealt with habeas corpus or the Magna Carta, I would be shocked.
There is a great awakening happening amongst the American people. It is missed by politicians and pundits, because it is a soul movement individually and collectively. From the years I think we will come to refer to as the Dark Ages, we are awakening and reclaiming our own authority as "we the people". Watch. It will be magnificent and inspiring. Kathy Kirk
I couldn't disagree more with Sheila. If you believe our last two elections were scarily corrupt, I suggest you read the latest news out of Africa. We are the only country in the modern world who have a consistent peaceful transfer of government every 4 years. Emphasis on the peaceful.
I think we need to get rid of the electoral voting process. I have a big problem with having California, New York, and Florida decide who gets to represent me. I don't live in any of these states.
Stuart: No, we want the real thing.
Justin
1952 was the last time no President or Vice President was running; not 1928
JP
Eisnehower, Nixon vs Stevenson, Kefauver
I would have to disagree with you about McCain winning. Many Republicans view him as a traitor for his support of Campaign Finance Reform. Many religious conservatives view his attempts to pander to the religious conservatives as ineffectual and insincere. Finally, the smears the Bush camp used on McCain are still out there, and I'm sure a lot of people still remember them. (Especially here in South Carolina, where Bush smeared his way to victory...)
(In my case, I'm not voting for McCain- but for none of the above reasons. While I firmly believe the election was stolen from McCain in South Carolina, and I firmly believe in Campaign Finance Reform, McCain's 2000-2008 foreign policy has and will have disastrous results for our country and the world.)
Please go to YouTube.com and watch
"Obama Portrait Music Video by Bjarne O"
I have never been more than inspired before than now, as far as politics and elections is concerned in our beautiful country.
Really, who cares.........the next president will again be "chosen" based on expenditure, fearmongering and religious influence. They've wasted the opportunity since 2000 to be a positive influence in the world, instead fanned the flames of extremism and dissent. Much of the world is now looking away from USA and finding alternate paths of enlightenment for the future. "American Interests" are increasingly in contrast, contradiction and at the expense of the rest of the world. In 15- 30 years the US will be largely irrelevent in global affairs anyway.
In his comments on the 2008 US primary election campaigns, Justin Webb stated:
"This is the first US presidential election since 1928 in which neither the president nor the vice-president is standing in the primaries, seeking re-election."
This is a mistake I've encountered several times in various columns, making me wonder if the writers are simply copying from each other and not taking time for research or stopping to think.
True, 1928 (Herbert Hoover vs Al Smith) had no incumbent president or veep running. But 25 years later, in 1952,Harry Truman was stepping down, vice-president Alben Barkley was planning a return to the Senate and the presidential candidates were Dwight Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson, neither of whom had previously occupied an office in the White House.
-- Bill Jaker
Town of Maine, NY, USA
As an Iowan who will caucus for Romney on thursday, I will be the first to admit it is odd that Iowa has this disproportionate influance to the process. We are the most educated state (highest proportionate of literacy and high test scores) and do not care for mean people. Attack ads typically hurt the attacker as much as the person being attacked in the Iowa Caucuses and hopefully this will delay or dampen the nastyness that will come with close elections.
Only January 1, and so many things to ponder.
'Iowa,' being such an...irrelevant venue thrust into the global limelight simply because they moved ahead their presidental primary date is rather a pathetic commentary on the charade of the contemporary American national/federal electoral process. Though Iowa has about as much in common, is about as representative of the overall American population demographics as, say - the sheep resident in the Faulkand Islands juxtaposed to the human residents of the Nash Terraces in Regent's Park, London are akin to one another [or, as those in the co-op apartments on New York's upper east side are as to the tar-paper shack residents of Alabama]; it's presented the media with fodder for their feeding frenzy. 'Much ado about nothing' - indeed! Iowa has, well - it has corn, and lots of it. It also has pigs and plenty of them. Iowa has - on average, 5.5 pigs for every person in the state. It also produces eggs and soybeans. What it does NOT have is a single cosmopolitan city or urban center {'centre' - if you prefer} of anything approaching a status of being noteworthy - apart from their not being noteworthy in the least bit. Somewhere in the area of 5% of Americans now work directly in agricultural crop production. The mega-farms of today - with their GPS interfaced link-ups for tractors, irrigation and/or combine harveters, and the trading of commodity futures via the Internet reflect the demise of the 'family farm' in America. Agriculture in America today is BIG business and it's both capital intensive, as well as highly automated. The departure of Americans from the 'family farm' accelerated in the era after World War II and has steadily risen [the departures therefrom that is] to the point where many of the former agra-towns are now borded-up relics of days long past - like the silver or gold towns of the west from the 1800's. None the less, Iowans have seen fit to thrust themselves into the headlines as the first primary for the American presidency. Candidly, whatever the results of the Iowa poll are, they are - for all intents and purposes...'irrelevant' in the scheme of what's at issue here. That is, apart from American's desire to be on a winning side and our herd mentality as relates to the primaries that will follow. In that sense alone does the Iowa primary have ANY meaning. Iowa's population is 2,982,085 and of that 1,912,197 are registered voters. Bearing in mind that America currently has a population in excess of 300,000,000, that would make Iowa {in the gross/aggregate - including infants, toddlers and all children under the age of 18} less than 1% of the American population. As for their registered voters, that brings them down to approximately 2/3rds of 1% of the population of the nation. That the Iowa primary has ANY meaning is - in and of itself, a rather profound and pathetic reflection of the foolishness of this aspect of the American electoral process. Iowa is 94.4% white. English {well, American 'English' that is} is spoken in 94.2% of homes. 88% of the land in Iowa is listed as being under farm uses. Employers like Deere & Co. {tractors, combines, etc} and Pioneer Hi-Bred International {crops} are among the largest non-governmental employers in the state. How Iowa could possibly reflect America in 2008 is utterly an absurd proposition. Looking at America's east coast - from Providence, Rhode Island on down to Miami, Florida, the composition of the demographics of that 1,000 mile stretch presents us with a profoundly diverse population mixture of in excess of 50,000,000 people. The mid-west - east of the Mississippi River, brings into the formula with the region another 35,000,000 or so highly diverse peoples. Naturally, the west coast - from San Diego, CA, up through Portland, OR adds in another 35-50,000,000 people of assorted backgrounds. In short, Iowa has almost no reflection of contemporary America. Iowa is, well - Iowa. Mind you, I'm not saying here that Iowa is in any way a bad place. Obviously, it has a lot of attributes, that is - if you like white people cut from cookie cutters and...sameness, and that's OK, but, it's not contemporary America - whatsoever. America's not about 'sameness,' America's diverse. Therefore, Iowa will simply present the media and the pundants with fodder for unfounded speculation. Never the less, the field{s} of candidates will be narrowed as a result of the Iowa vote - perhaps more the pity. The states that count are - still, California, New York, Florida {a president's brother, hanging chads or otherwise corrupted results notwithstanding}, Illinois, Pennsylvania and/or Texas. In other words, until those states where people vastly outnumber pigs hold their primaries the field will remain open to speculation.
Chicago, USA
Sources:
2006 Census. Iowa Secretary of State figures upodated Nov. 1, 2007. Federal Bureau of Economic Analysis 2006 statistics and Iowa Department of Economic Development 2007 figures.
What, pray tell, would Rowan have us do? I propose we all move to Yemen for a spell and see first-hand how corrosive non-Western societies can be. Too many places on this earth remain wastelands of humanity, and Rowan should be thankful each day he was fortunate enough to have been born in a free, orderly, and prosperous society.
Living in free societies, especially those that have been blessed with long-term stability, is not easy. Normalcy is boring, but God help us if we come to long for the alternative. I would encourage folks who find fault with free Western societies to travel to and spend time in places like Yemen, Sudan, and now Kenya, where human lives are not equal and some are valued less. We don't know how good we have it here in the West.
Crystal ball? What for? As always the predictor is the fullness of the voters wallet. The present administration has no real concern for fiscal prudence. Meanwhile, those pesky "adjustable rate mortgages" are still offered, it used to be called usury. Those laws went the same way as the 5 mph no damage bumpers.
The consumer/citizen has too many hands taking nickels and dimes from their pockets. Hey it adds up! Obama? Too new to the game. Hillary? Middle of the road enough, she has a Rhodes scholar as a husband, remember him? The financial tranquility is missed. And lastly, Hillary is not a republican. And after the election? Business as usual.
Sheila, I agree that the last two elections were "...scarily corrupt..." How can our {US} politicians have the audacity to complain about elections in other parts of the world, when our own are so tainted? IF we are allowed to have a president that we actually voted for.... I want a president that can be both-- OF and FOR the people.
Atlanta, GA
Predictions?
I would like to submit another surprise candidate in this race, Ron Paul.
Who could have predicted that Ron Paul would:
- Raise roughly 30 million dollars in 2007 (I hear last quarter he raised 9 million more than any other Republican).
- Win more straw polls than any other Republican.
- Have more online support than almost all the other candidates combined (if you include myspace, facebook, youtube etc.)
- Is inquired about on search engines more than any other candidate running in 2008.
- Be snubbed by FOX news and others constantly.
What gets me is that the press are currently using the polls to justify keeping him from unbiased coverage. Fox is even attempting to keep Ron Paul out of the next debate in early January (if the current reports are true).
How can a candidate with so much support in some areas be excluded from fair coverage just because he does not do well in some polls? Mind you his name is often not even mentioned in some of these polls.
He is opposed to the war in Iraq AND the needless placement of tens of thousands U.S. soldiers across the globe. He does not stray away from issues like inflation and the American governments slow erosion of rights ranging from privacy to habeas corpus (military commissions act).
Lastly, how can the public get a picture of this man if the press are constantly acting like a wet blanket to his campaign?
He really stands out as a unique candidate that espouses some of the original American ideals about limited government and personal freedom.
If you're looking for a slick, smooth talking special interest politician then he is not your man.
Where are the journalists that cover all sides to a story? Especially the parts that involve an underdog of such epic proportions.
May the best candidate win,
Knut~
P.S. Ron Paul also does not reflect the 'Western' deterioration you mention, in fact his voting record and campaign stand in sharp contrast to the current neo-conservative Republican and Democratic positions that the government is the cradle to grave answer to ours (and the whole worlds) problems. He suggests people ought to sort these things out without constantly turning to the government.
Maybe he's onto something?!?
You're right, Sheila. Except that the elections in this country have been corrupt since the '60s when dead people started voting in Chicago (again...hooray for them) and shortly after that, undocumented immigrants.
The main difference between American and European democracy is that Europeans (as people of many other countries too) choose their representatives, and in America they are chosen by corporate and religious lobbies. As a saying from my country goes, government is usually better than the people deserve.
Since the '60s, Jarrod? What an interesting choice of decade...
You mean that in the times of Tammany Hall and Jim Crow laws, US elections were squeaky-clean one-man, one-vote affairs?
Ugh, I had really hoped that Knut was wrong when he said that Ron Paul was being enquired about on search engines more than any other candidate (as good an indication of interest as any, I guess) .... but it seems he is right:
Look at the shape of that graph! And it's not mostly foreigners looking for him either, the hits are all from US cities.
That's terrifying. I thought it would be impossible for Americans to elect a worse president than Bush ... but Paul is such a guy. Has anybody even read his policies? He's completely insane!
He wants to abolish the income tax, and pay for that by shutting down large parts of the federal governments. OK. Which parts would be the first to go Ron? "The Department of Energy, the Department of Education" ... yeah because if there's anything America has too much of, it's education and energy. *zoink*
Needless to say his other policies are about as sensible. For instance, if you thought Bush was bad on the environment, try Ron Paul .... "all you need to protect the environment is strong property rights, so I can't put my pollution in your back garden". No mention of how to apply private property rights to the air or ocean currents.
If Paul is elected, this simpleton will destroy the US as we know it, and even though I hate what Bushian foreign policy has done in recent years, a wrecked and feeble US would be even worse.
is it no the first open race since 1952 not 1928?
While McCain was a reasonable 2008 Republican pick for president, that's only taking the other Republicans into account. McCain actually being elected President would almost certainly cement America's reputation as "poisonous". Maybe you don't remember McCain's infamous "Bomb, bomb Iran" refrain used when discussing - if you call Beach Boy humor "discussion" - his policy towards Iran. The reason why your second prognostication may actually come true is because we're heading for a rather large Democratic victory and, like it or not Mr. Webb, THAT'S the best solution to America's image problem.
in reply to post 38:
I find it sad how much you Don't know!,
First the strong property rights would mean that companies destroying our environment could get sued into non-existence, Meaning they would have to be held accountable for their damages, and the free market would immediately change to making better and safer products (if not for the consumer) then for the survival of their business. secondly the department of energy and education, have proven to only be creating an unsuccessful dept his idea is "give them some competition". The reason were in such a deep mess is because we are depending on our federal government to do everything for us, were becoming more like socialists every day, we are heading in the wrong direction where "supercapitilists" "lobbyists" have to much influence in Washington, to quote the railway barren Vanderbilt "let the people be dammed" capitalism without a conscience is tearing this country apart, Ron Paul stands a threat to them because he has the peoples best interests in mind putting our constitution first. "the constitution was made to protect the people from our government not our government from our people" here are some facts to chew on
650,000 Iraqis killed 5,000 U.S. soldiers killed
constitutionally illegal and preemptive war
the patriot act is a complete contradiction to our civil liberties
allowing the government to spy on it's own people and detain you for a indefinite amount of time
we have lost "Habeas Corpus"
and are condoning torture!
we are taxed 50% of our income to fund this
we have a U.S. military presence
in over 130 country's and we our continually Nation Building
with a U.S. embassy in Iraq bigger then the Vatican
and a 9 trillion dollar deficit
Ron Paul intends to stop all this and you don't like him? wow
we don't own the world and its time we stop trying to.
In response to #30, I agree that Iowa is not representative of the U.S. as a whole. But in fact, there isn't a single state that really IS. You're comparing entire regions, i.e. the east coast, to Iowa? ANY state will appear to be unrepresentative of the whole east coast.
I'm a grad student who, besides in college, has lived in Iowa my whole life, and I've traveled to most regions of the country. I can tell you that, with perhaps the exception of national security (with respect to terrorism), we care very much and are affected by the same major issues as everyone else. Agriculture is not disproportionately focused on. And we are fairly evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats.
The fact is, the geography of Iowa is conducive to intimate and relatively inexpensive statewide campaigns that allow everyone to see most candidates in person, even multiple times, without having to travel more than 30 minutes. In my experience, most caucus-goers have seen at least one candidate speak in person. Until this go-around, I couldn't appreciate how helpful this truly is. Further, this method is much better than one big Super Tuesday primary, where the focus would be so divided that no states would have the opportunity for most of their inhabitants to do more than just read the paper or see candidates in the news.
Could another state successfully take its place? Probably. But there is something to be said for tradition, and that leads us to take it very seriously here. We're used to getting picked on by people on both coasts (and Chicagoans) for being unimportant, but every few years people really pay attention to us. They put their trust in us because we've got the front row seats, and we do our best for the country.
In 1952, Harry Truman ran in the first few primaries but did poorly and dropped out. Something about enmeshing us in an unpopular war of dubious national interest that dragged on with no end in sight. (The parallels between the early 50s and now are quite strong, from what was going on in the world to the political debate. Flip the parties, though.) It is correct that 1928 is the last time we did not have an incumbent running.
In 1952, Harry Truman ran in the first few primaries but did poorly and dropped out. Something about enmeshing us in an unpopular war of dubious national interest that dragged on with no end in sight. (The parallels between the early 50s and now are quite strong, from what was going on in the world to the political debate. Flip the parties, though.) It is correct that 1928 is the last time we did not have an incumbent running.
Justin,
at least you're betting wisely:
McCain has a good chance to be president since the USA has never elected a woman or black person to the job, and no senator or northern democrat has won since JFK so narrowly did in 1960.
The 'American brand' has a good chance to rise as I don't think it has ever been so low - it surely can't go down much further...
There's an American expression that is used to express the need for multi-tasking: the need to walk and chew gum at the same time. So far, I haven't heard any candidates currently engaged in the Presidential Race acknowledge or deal with in any way whatsover - their Pandora's Box of mischief that the winner will inherit - the mischief of the Military Commissions Act, Habeas Corpus and many of the destructive events We the People, that in point of fact - didn't vote for. Everyone running in this race needs to be queried about the Military Commissions Act and Habeas Corpus.
I'm hypothesizing that if Articles of Impeachment are put out there and respected by and followed through by Congress - right now, not waiting and making excuses that we have a Presidential Race - the world (especially the U.S.) we would see a reasonably prompt reversal of the banking behaviors, mortgage messes and subprime credit exploitation which is destroying all value and hope.